Determinants of early marriage in Iran: a multivariate survivorship analysis using census microdata

Figures & data

Figure 1. Singulate mean age at marriage (SMAM) by gender and place of residence, Iran, 1986–2016.Source: Calculated from census published results (Statistical Centre of Iran, 1986, 1996, 2006, 2011, and 2016)

Figure 2. Percentage of never married women in rural areas by age group, Iran, 2006–2016.Source: Calculated from census published results (Statistical Centre of Iran, 2006, 2011, and 2016)

Table 1. Descriptive statistics of the variables included in the analysis.

Variable		% or Mean (SD)	n	Variable		% or Mean (SD)	n
Gender	Male	52.2	58782	Ethnicity	Persian	36.2	40743
	Female	47.8	53765		Persian and Turk	18.0	20181
Place of residence	Rural	28.6	80348		Gilak	3.2	3554
	Urban	71.4	32199		Mazandarani	3.9	4408
Father’s literacy	Illiterate	13.6	14019		Turk	13.6	15336
	Literate	86.4	89132		Kurd	4.2	4761
Mother’s literacy	Illiterate	19.5	21165		Lur	3.2	3650
	Literate	80.5	87412		Baluch	4.5	5071
Father’s age (year)		44.7 (7.6)	112547		Mixed	13.2	14843
Mother’s age (year)		39.9 (6.9)	112547
Parent’s age difference (year)		5.7 (4.7)	112547

SD stands for standard deviation; Among different variables, only the sum of the father’s and mother’s literacy is not equal to 112,547 due to missing values.

Table 2. Intersample group-specific survival probabilities and relative risks, Iran, 2011–2016.

Variable		n	Survival probability ($\hat{\mathit{P}})$	Relative risk ($\hat{\mathit{R}})$	t-test/F-Anova
Gender	Male (reference)	58782	0.983		9.414 **
	Female	53765	0.879	0.894
Place of residence	Rural (reference)	80348	0.799		16.241 **
	Urban	32199	0.991	1.239
Ethnicity	Persian (reference)	40743	0.932		F= 5.795 **
	Persian and Turk	20181	0.990	1.062
	Gilak	3554	0.980	1.051
	Mazandarani	4408	0.993	1.065
	Turk	15336	0.892	0.957
	Kurd	4761	0.895	0.960
	Lur	3650	0.929	0.996
	Baluch	5071	0.901	0.966
	Mixed	14843	0.891	0.956
Father’s literacy	Illiterate (reference)	14019	0.811		12.095 **
	Literate	89132	0.949	1.169
Mother’s literacy	Illiterate (reference)	21165	0.807		8.656 **
	Literate	87412	0.971	1.202

Relative risks have been calculated as the ratio of the survival probability of each category of the variable of interest to the survival probability of the reference category. **: significant at 0.001.

Table 3. Coefficients and risk ratios indicating the relative probability of survival in the never-married state, Iran, 2011–2016.

		Males and females (1)	Female in urban areas (2)	Females in rural areas (3)	Males in rural areas (4)
Variable		$exp\left(\mathit{\beta }\right)$	$exp\left(\mathit{\beta }\right)$	$exp\left(\mathit{\beta }\right)$	$exp\left(\mathit{\beta }\right)$
Gender	Male (reference)
	Female	0.887**	-
Place of residence	Rural (reference)
	Urban	0.998NS	-
Ethnicity	Persian (reference)
	Persian and Turk	1.016**	0.996NS	1.454**	1.123**
	Gilak	1.025**	0.947**	1.222**	1.143**
	Mazandarani	1.100**	1.134**	1.265**	1.075**
	Turk	1.078**	1.064**	1.128**	1.156**
	Kurd	1.041**	1.053**	1.126**	1.008NS
	Lur	1.095**	1.027*	1.312**	1.293**
	Baluch	1.220**	0.971**	1.514**	1.426**
	Mixed	1.028**	0.994NS	1.204**	1.055**
Father’s literacy	Illiterate (reference)
	Literate	1.816**	1.756**	2.153**	1.760**
Mother’s literacy	Illiterate (reference)
	Literate	1.374**	1.382**	1.382**	1.401**
Father’s age		1.096**	1.099**	1.091**	1.079**
Mother’s age		1.066**	1.069**	1.065**	1.066**
Parent’s age difference		0.941**	0.954**	0.934**	0.943**
Constant		0.001**	0.001**	0.001**	0.002**

NS: Not significant; *: p value<0.05; ** p value<0.01.

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