X. The Need for the Alliance to Adapt Further

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Notes

1 Daesh is also known as the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, or ISIS.

2 Russia’s hybrid operations use a wide range of overt and covert, non-military and military means that are applied in an orchestrated way, including disinformation, malicious cyber activities and interference in national elections; subversive actions and support for separatist movements; and continued military build-up and large-scale, no-notice exercises on NATO’s borders, involving nuclear elements.

3 The ‘strategy of active defence’ was outlined by General Valery Gerasimov, Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Russia, in a speech to the Russian Academy of Military Science on 2 March 2019. Russia’s military-strategic thinking and operational courses of action were repeatedly demonstrated by the regular large-scale Zapad exercises.

4 See Heinrich Brauss, ‘NATO Beyond 70: Renewing a Culture of Readiness’, International Centre for Defence and Security, November 2018.

5 The EDI budget has increased from $3.4 billion in 2016 to $6.5 billion in 2019. See US Department of Defense, ‘Budget Fiscal Year (FY) 2019’, February 2018.

6 See US Embassy and Consulate in Poland, ‘Joint Declaration on Defense Cooperation Regarding United States Force Posture in the Republic of Poland’, 12 June 2019, <https://pl.usembassy.gov/joint_declaration/>, accessed 7 February 2020.

7 NATO, ‘Joint Declaration on EU-NATO Cooperation by the President of the European Council, the President of the European Commission, and the Secretary General of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’, 10 July 2018, <https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_156626.htm>, accessed 7 February 2020.

8 EU member states have, to date, launched 47 cooperative projects, which cover a variety of capability areas, from a ‘Euro-drone’ (medium-altitude, long-endurance, remotely piloted aircraft system) to training facilities, supported by different groups of countries. See European Defence Agency, ‘Current List of PESCO Projects’, <https://www.eda.europa.eu/what-we-do/our-current-priorities/permanent-structured-cooperation-(PESCO)/current-list-of-pesco-projects>, accessed 7 February 2020.

9 See Wolf-Diether Roepke and Hasit Thankey, ‘Resilience: The First Line of Defence’, NATO Review, 27 February 2019, <https://www.nato.int/docu/review/articles/2019/02/27/resilience-the-first-line-of-defence/index.html>, accessed 7 February 2020.

10 See NATO, ‘Press Conference by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg Following the Meetings of NATO Defence Ministers’, 26 June 2019, <https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_167072.htm>, accessed 7 February 2020; NATO, ‘Secretary General: NATO Response to INF Treaty Demise will be Measured and Responsible’, 2 August 2019, <https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_168177.htm>, accessed 7 February 2020.

11 US Department of Defense, ‘Nuclear Posture Review’, February 2018, pp. 54–55.

12 Paul Sonne, ‘U.S. Military to Test Missiles Banned Under Faltering Nuclear Pact With Russia’, Washington Post, 13 March 2019.

13 NATO, ‘London Declaration Issued by the Heads of State and Government Participating in the Meeting of the North Atlantic Council in London, 3–4 December 2019’, 4 December 2019, para. 6, <https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_171584.htm>, accessed 7 February 2020.

14 Andrew Michta, ‘As China Surges, Europe Is on the Menu’, American Interest, September 2019.

15 Richard Barrons, ‘European Defence for the 21^st Century’, London School of Economics and Political Science, 2018.

16 See NATO, ‘Defence Expenditure of NATO Countries (2013−2019)’, 29 November 2019, <https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_171356.htm>, accessed 21 January 2020.

17 Nick Witney, ‘Building Europeans’ Capacity to Defend Themselves’, European Council on Foreign Relations, Policy Brief 04/2019, June 2019. As the NATO Level of Ambition is defined by the 2+6 formula – that is, the pool of forces and capabilities required for NATO to be able to mount two major joint operations plus six smaller joint operations, an EU part of it could be 1+2 or 1+3.