An empirical analysis of the US stock market and output growth volatility spillover effects on three Anglo-Saxon countries

Abstract

This paper examines the dynamic and switching effects of volatility spillovers arising from US stock market returns and GDP growth on those of Australia, Canada and the UK. For this purpose, we use quarterly data (1961q1–2013q1) and a constant probability Markov regime switching model. We found that the US stock market volatility significantly affects the stock market volatility of all three countries at least in one of the two specified regimes over time. However, the stock market volatilities in none of the three countries are contemporaneously influenced by the US output volatility even after allowing for two distinct regimes. On the other hand, the US stock market volatility exerts significant influences on the output volatilities of both Australia and the UK. Compared with Australia and the UK, Canada and the US show substantial output volatility co-movements, thereby confirming the close association between the two neighbouring economies through the NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement). We conclude that shocks emanating from the US stock market have unequivocal flow-on effects on the output and return volatilities of the other economies.

Keywords:

• economic growth
• stock market
• volatility spillovers

• JEL Classifications
• F36
• G15

Acknowledgements

We wish to thank the editor and two anonymous referees, whose invaluable inputs and comments considerably improved an earlier version of this article. The usual caveat applies.

Notes

1. Ahn and Lee (2006) estimated the univariate and bivariate GARCH models using stock price indices and seasonally adjusted industrial production of Canada, Italy, Japan, the UK, and the US during the period 1975 to 2000.