Does the Diversity of New Build Housing Type and Tenure Have a Positive Influence on Residential Absorption Rates? An Investigation of Housing Completion Rates in Leeds City Region

Figures & data

Figure 1. Housebuilding by Type of Developer: England and Wales, 1923–2018 Source: (Wilson & Barton, 2020)

Figure 2. Land Allocated for Residential Use (Hectares) since 1989. Source: CLG Table P222

Table 1. Land holdings and completions by major UK housebuilders 2015

	Barrett	Persimmon	Taylor Wimpey
Homes completed in 2015	16,447	14,572	13,341
Plots in ‘short-term landbank’	70,523	54,300	76,000
Plots anticipated from ‘strategic land holdings’	71,600	100,000	107,000

Source: House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee (2016, p. 22).

Figure 3. Size of Site (Units) Compared to Annual Completions (percentage). Source: (Letwin, 2018b)

Table 2. Profile of LPAs selected for study

Local planning authority	IMD score	House price to income ratio	Local plan	5-Year land supply	Number of new build units in 10-year period
Barnsley	29.568 (high)	4.92 (low)	Adopted January 2019	4.01 (not satisfied)	5,306
Harrogate	10.373 (low)	8.83 (high)	Adopted 2001. Updated 2004. Core strategy and policy map 2009. Updated local plan not adopted as at January 2020.	5.18 (satisfied)	1,049
Leeds	26.623 (medium)	6.04 (medium)	Core strategy adopted 2014; selective review adopted September 2019; supplementary planning documents to follow.	4.79	12,467
York	12.219 (low)	8.79 (high)	Current plan adopted in 2005. New plan still in production January 2020	N/A	3,112

Table 3. Number of development, total units and average size of development by LPA

Local authority	Total developments	Total units	Average size development	House type % split F/T/SD/D	Tenure % split FH/LH
Barnsley	180	5,306	29.48	10:28:32:30	83:17
Harrogate	85	1,049	12.34	25:20:17:38	66:34
Leeds	354	12,467	35.22	42:19:18:21	55:45
York	92	3,112	33.83	61:18:8:13	38:62
Average	711	21,934	30.85	36:21:20:23	60:40

Table 4. Results for Brillouin’s index of relative diversity for house types and tenures by LPA

Local authority	House types	Tenures	Combined diversity
Barnsley	0.946	0.666	1.612
Harrogate	0.961	0.924	1.886
Leeds	0.951	0.992	1.942
York	0.782	0.955	1.737
Total	0.979	0.972	1.950

Table 5. Average monthly sales and percentage of site sold by LPA

Local authority	Average sales per month	% Sold per month
Barnsley	40.50	16.840
Harrogate	8.07	21.740
Leeds	95.17	18.982
York	23.94	21.750
Total	167.44	19.828

Figure 4. (a,b,c) The average rate of absorption and Brillouin’s Index for house type, tenure and combined diversity for (1) Barnsley, (2) Harrogate,(3) Leeds and (4) York

Table 6. Summary of results for new build sales pre-NPPF

Local authority	Total developments	Total units	Average size development	Average sales per month	% Sold per month	Brillouin’s index of relative diversity
						House types	Tenures	Combined diversity
Barnsley	83	1,746	21.04	34.92	17.641	0.962	0.736	1.698
Harrogate	26	229	8.81	4.58	23.37	0.963	0.943	1.905
Leeds	150	4,416	29.44	88.32	17.719	0.824	0.976	1.801
York	37	870	23.51	17.40	16.114	0.724	0.908	1.632

Table 7. Summary of results for new build sales post-NPPF

Local authority	Total developments	Total units	Average Size development	Average sales per month	% Sold per month	Brillouin’s index of relative diversity
						House types	Tenures	Combined diversity
Barnsley	113	3,526	31.20	43.53	17.182	0.903	0.630	1.533
Harrogate	58	802	13.83	10.15	22.051	0.935	0.925	1.860
Leeds	246	7,997	32.51	99.96	19.851	0.982	0.951	1.932
York	59	2,227	37.75	28.19	26.959	0.791	0.964	1.755

Table 8. Outputs of Pearson and regression tests – all new build sales; all LPAs combined (low strength association in yellow; no correlation in orange)

	Compared to size of site	Compared to house type diversity	Compared to tenure diversity	Compared to house type and tenure diversity
Data for all LPAs combined
Pearson’s
Average sales per month	0.270	−0.114	−0.061	−0.106
% of site sold per month	−0.212	−0.271	−0.179	−0.271
R squared
Average sales per month	7.31%	1.30%	0.37%	1.13%
% of site sold per month	4.51%	7.35%	3.21%	7.37%

Table 9. P-values for regression outputs

	Compared to size of site	Compared to house type diversity	Compared to tenure diversity	Compared to house type and tenure diversity
All LPA data
Average sales per month	0.00000	0.00233	0.10419	0.00451
% of site sold per month	0.00000	0.00000	0.00000	0.00000

Wilson, W., & Barton, C. (2020) Tackling the Under-supply of Housing in England, Briefing Paper Number 07671, London: House of Commons Library.

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Letwin, O. (2018b) Independent review of build-out rates, Draft Analysis, London: Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government.

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