Effects of dysphoria and induced negative mood on the processes underlying hindsight bias

Figures & data

Figure 1. Core assumptions of the multinomial model of hindsight bias by Erdfelder and Buchner (1998). Rectangles represent observable events. r_C and r_E = OJ recollection probabilities for control and experimental items, respectively; b = probability of a biased reconstruction given a failure to recollect the OJ; OJ = original judgement; ROJ = recall of original judgement; CJ = correct judgement. Adapted from “Recollection biases in hindsight judgments”, by Erdfelder et al., 2007, Social Cognition, 25, p. 117. Adapted with permission of Guilford Press.

Figure 2. MPT parameter estimates for the recollection of the OJ and for reconstruction bias as a function of mood group. Error bars represent 95% confidence intervals.

Erdfelder, E., & Buchner, A. (1998). Decomposing the hindsight bias: A multinomial processing tree model for separating recollection and reconstruction in hindsight. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 24, 387–414. doi:10.1037//0278-7393.24.2.387

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Erdfelder, E., Brandt, M., & Bröder, A. (2007). Recollection biases in hindsight judgments. Social Cognition, 25, 114–131. doi:10.1521/soco.2007.25.1.114

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