Climate change vulnerability assessment for Pacific Lamprey in rivers of the Western United States

Figures & data

Figure 1. Pacific Lamprey NatureServe Climate Change Vulnerability Index results for mid and end-century time periods using the CMIP3 downscaled moisture and air temperature from ensemble model under the A1b and A2 carbon emission scenarios (Schaller and Wang 2011).

Figure 2. The 15 river basins and larger geographic groupings used for the Pacific Lamprey vulnerability assessment.

Figure 3. Relation between exposure to local climate change and sensitivity factors (modified from Young et al. 2011, Figure 1).

Table 1. Summary of CCVI risk scores by GCM in both RCP 4.5 and 8.5 greenhouse gas emission scenarios for mid and end-century time periods.

CSIRO-Mk3-6-0	4.5 mid	4.5 end	8.5 mid	8.5 end	NORESM1-M	4.5 mid	4.5 end	8.5 mid	8.5 end
Umpqua	11.02	12.17	12.17	13.66	Umpqua	8.00	12.17	10.64	13.66
Chehalis	4.84	5.50	4.84	6.00	Chehalis	4.16	5.34	4.84	6.00
Necanicum	5.42	5.01	5.01	5.75	Necanicum	3.50	5.01	5.01	5.75
Klickitat	2.66	2.66	3.34	3.34	Klickitat	2.66	2.66	2.66	3.34
Umatilla	5.99	5.99	5.99	5.99	Umatilla	4.33	4.67	5.00	5.00
Yakima	10.85	9.66	10.85	10.85	Yakima	7.98	10.02	8.83	10.85
Methow	7.66	7.66	7.16	8.85	Methow	6.65	7.16	7.16	8.85
Asotin	7.33	7.33	7.33	7.99	Asotin	5.66	6.65	7.33	7.99
Selway	7.32	7.32	7.32	8.68	Selway	6.99	7.32	7.32	8.68
MF Salmon	9.00	9.00	11.01	11.01	MF Salmon	7.98	9.00	9.00	11.01
Sandy	4.66	4.66	4.66	5.34	Sandy	3.33	4.33	3.67	4.66
Tualatin	3.67	4.66	4.66	4.66	Tualatin	3.33	3.67	3.67	4.00
Skagit	8.26	8.26	8.26	8.26	Skagit	6.75	8.26	7.49	8.26
Smith	4.34	4.26	4.26	5.17	Smith	3.33	4.34	4.26	5.17
SF Eel	6.01	6.01	6.01	7.25	SF Eel	4.66	5.93	6.01	7.25
Min	2.66	2.66	3.34	3.34	Min	2.66	2.66	2.66	3.34
Max	11.02	12.17	12.17	13.66	Max	8.00	12.17	10.64	13.66
Average	6.60	6.68	6.86	7.52	Average	5.29	6.43	6.19	7.36
Standard Dev.	2.48	2.45	2.69	2.78	Standard Dev.	1.95	2.60	2.29	2.93
bcc-csm 1-1-m	4.5 mid	4.5 end	8.5 mid	8.5 end
Umpqua	9.49	12.17	11.02	12.17
Chehalis	4.16	5.34	4.84	6.00
Necanicum	4.66	5.42	5.42	6.16
Klickitat	2.66	3.34	2.66	3.34
Umatilla	4.99	4.99	4.33	5.99
Yakima	8.35	9.17	9.17	10.85
Methow	6.16	7.84	7.84	8.85
Asotin	5.99	6.65	5.66	7.99
Selway	6.65	8.01	8.35	8.68
MF Salmon	7.98	9.00	9.00	9.00
Sandy	3.99	3.99	4.33	4.66
Tualatin	3.33	3.99	3.67	4.00
Skagit	7.52	7.52	7.52	8.26
Smith	3.41	4.26	4.26	4.26
SF Eel	3.50	6.01	6.01	6.01
Min	2.66	3.34	2.66	3.34
Max	9.49	12.17	11.02	12.17
Average	5.52	6.51	6.27	7.08
Standard Dev.	2.11	2.44	2.41	2.58

Figure 4. The air/stream temperature relations to convert CMIP5 air temperature to stream temperature for Climate Change Vulnerability Index estimates (D. Isaak NorWeST 2015).

Table 2. Summary of CCVI risk categories by GCM in both RCP 4.5 and 8.5 greenhouse gas emission scenarios for mid and end-century time periods.

CSIRO-Mk3-6-0	4.5 mid	4.5 end	8.5 mid	8.5 end	NORESM1-M	4.5 mid	4.5 end	8.5 mid	8.5 end
Umpqua	EV	EV	EV	EV	Umpqua	HV	EV	EV	EV
Chehalis	MV	MV	MV	MV	Chehalis	MV	MV	MV	MV
Necanicum	MV	MV	MV	MV	Necanicum	PS	MV	MV	MV
Klickitat	PS	PS	PS	PS	Klickitat	PS	PS	PS	PS
Umatilla	MV	MV	MV	MV	Umatilla	MV	MV	MV	MV
Yakima	EV	HV	EV	EV	Yakima	HV	EV	HV	EV
Methow	HV	HV	HV	HV	Methow	MV	HV	HV	HV
Asotin	HV	HV	HV	HV	Asotin	MV	MV	HV	HV
Selway	HV	HV	HV	HV	Selway	MV	HV	HV	HV
MF Salmon	HV	HV	EV	EV	MF Salmon	HV	HV	HV	EV
Sandy	MV	MV	MV	MV	Sandy	PS	MV	PS	MV
Tualatin	PS	MV	MV	MV	Tualatin	PS	PS	PS	PS
Skagit	HV	HV	HV	HV	Skagit	MV	HV	HV	HV
Smith	MV	MV	MV	MV	Smith	PS	MV	MV	MV
SF Eel	MV	MV	MV	HV	SF Eel	MV	MV	MV	HV
bcc-csm 1-1-m	4.5 mid	4.5 end	8.5 mid	8.5 end
Umpqua	HV	EV	EV	EV
Chehalis	MV	MV	MV	MV
Necanicum	MV	MV	MV	MV
Klickitat	PS	PS	PS	PS
Umatilla	MV	MV	MV	MV
Yakima	HV	HV	HV	EV	Most Vulnerable
Methow	MV	HV	HV	HV	Most stable
Asotin	MV	MV	MV	HV
Selway	MV	HV	HV	HV
MF Salmon	HV	HV	HV	HV
Sandy	PS	PS	MV	MV
Tualatin	PS	PS	PS	PS
Skagit	HV	HV	HV	HV
Smith	PS	MV	MV	MV
SF Eel	PS	MV	MV	MV

Figure 5. Pacific Lamprey Climate Change Vulnerability Index simulations using downscaled CSIRO-Mk3-6-0 model exposure.

Figure 6. Pacific Lamprey Climate Change Vulnerability Index simulations using downscaled bcc-csm1-1-m model exposure.

Figure 7. Pacific Lamprey Climate Change Vulnerability Index simulations using downscaled NORESM1-M model exposure.

Figure 8. Pacific Lamprey Climate Change Vulnerability Index simulations. Comparison for three Global Climate Models for mid-century and Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5.

Figure 9. Pacific Lamprey Climate Change Vulnerability Index simulations. Comparison for three Global Climate Models for end-century and Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5.

Figure 10. Pacific Lamprey Climate Change Vulnerability Index simulations. Comparison for three Global Climate Models for mid-century and Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5.

Figure 11. Pacific Lamprey Climate Change Vulnerability Index simulations. Comparison for three Global Climate Models for end-century and Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5.

Schaller HA, Wang C. 2011. Consideration of climate change impacts for restoration of Pacific Lamprey – a Pilot study of Pacific Lamprey climate change vulnerability. Presented at Investigating the World of Lamprey Biology and Ecology symposium at the American Fisheries Society 141st Annual Meeting, Seattle, Washington.

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Young B, Bayers E, Graves K, Hall K, Hammerson G, Reader A. 2011. Guidelines for using NatureServe Climate Change Vulnerability Index. Release 2.1. NatureServe 2011, Arlington, VA; [accessed 2019 December 19]. https://connect.natureserve.org/science/climate-change/ccvi.

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