“Phasic” metropolitan settlers: a phase-based model for the distribution of households in US metropolitan regions

Abstract

In this article, we develop a model for explaining spatial patterns in the distribution of households across metropolitan regions in the United States. First, we use housing consumption and residential mobility theories to construct a hypothetical probability distribution function for the consumption of housing services across three phases of household life span. We then hypothesize a second probability distribution function for the offering of housing services based on the distance from city center(s) at the metropolitan scale. Intersecting the two hypothetical probability functions, we develop a phase-based model for the distribution of households in US metropolitan regions. We argue that phase one households (young adults) are more likely to reside in central city locations, whereas phase two and three households are more likely to select suburban locations, due to their respective housing consumption behaviors. We provide empirical validation of our theoretical model with the data from the 2010 US Census for 35 large metropolitan regions.

Keywords:

• US metropolitan regions
• household
• housing consumption
• distribution patterns

Acknowledgments

The authors thank the two anonymous reviewers for their helpful and constructive comments that greatly contributed to improving the final version of the article.

Notes

1. Location quotient here is being used to convey a calculation where the percent composition of a single component in the larger population for sub-region is compared to the percent composition of that component in the larger population for the entire region.

2. All LOWESS models were run in the R statistical language using a smoothing factor of 0.08.