Balancing Biological Sustainability with the Economic Needs of Alaska's Sockeye Salmon Fisheries

Abstract

Total revenue in the Bristol Bay, Alaska, fishery for sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka has declined by 80% over the past two decades. In contrast to other fisheries where declining revenues are a consequence of declining catches, Bristol Bay sockeye salmon landings have remained high and the revenue decline is a result of falling prices, which in turn are a consequence of competition from increased production of rainbow trout/steelhead O. mykiss (hereafter, rainbow trout) and coho salmon O. kisutch farmed in Chile. This paper explores possible changes to current management strategies that would continue to ensure biological sustainability while enhancing economic returns. We simulate three management strategies for Bristol Bay sockeye salmon: fixed escapement range, conditional fixed harvest, and conditional fixed harvest rate. Yields from these simulations are combined with a forecast of Chilean rainbow trout and coho salmon production and a model of international trade flows for Alaskan sockeye salmon and Chilean coho salmon and rainbow trout to generate forecasts of exvessel price and total revenue for 2010 under each management strategy. The simulations suggest that a change from the current fixed escapement range management strategy could improve the economic health of the fishery without compromising biological sustainability.

Received March 2, 2010; accepted February 10, 2011

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

This paper is a result of work funded by the Alaska Sea Grant College Program (Project Number ASG05–02). All opinions are the authors’ and do not necessarily represent the views of the Alaska Sea Grant College Program or the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Detailed brood table data for Bristol Bay were provided by the ADFG. We acknowledge the generous assistance of Mark Herrmann and Abby Williams, who provided data and coefficient estimates for the international market model.