Can routine information from electronic patient records predict a future diagnosis of alcohol use disorder?

Figures & data

Table 1. Descriptive statistics for n = 20,764 patients from nine general practice surgeries in the Stavanger area in Norway accrued from March to August of 2011.

Variables	Mean	Median	Range
Follow-up time, years	6.5	12.5	0.0–17.0
Age at start of follow-up, years	43.4	42.0	22–79
Born	1956	1957	1916–1988
No. of predictor events
Class B drugs	28.6	5	0–774
New sick leave	5.9	3	0–143
Elevated laboratory test	0.7	0	0–66
ICD-10-diagnoses	0.3	0	0–50
ICPC-2-diagnoses	2.4	1	0–130
Cumulative predictor events	37.8	16	0–870

Abbreviations: ICD-10: International Classification of Diseases, version 10; ICPC-2: International Classification of Primary Care, version 2.

Table 2. Results from Cox regression of alcohol use disorder with time-dependent covariates for 20,764 patients from nine general practice surgeries in the Stavanger area in Norway accrued from March to August of 2011.

	Unadjusted estimates			Adjusted estimates
Variables	HR	95% CI	p	HR	95% CI	p
Gender (male)	1.71	(1.46, 2.01)	<0.001	1.94	(1.65, 2.29)	<0.001
No. of predictor events
Class B drugs^a	1.27	(1.24, 1.31)	<0.001	1.25	(1.21, 1.28)	<0.001
New sick leave^a	2.16	(1.81, 2.58)	<0.001	1.81	(1.50, 2.19)	<0.001
Elevated lab test^a	3.62	(2.93, 4.46)	<0.001	3.50	(2.79, 4.39)	<0.001
ICD-10-diagnoses^a	2.51	(1.51, 4.18)	<0.029	2.00	(1.07, 3.72)	0.009
ICPC-2-diagnoses^a	2.29	(2.01, 2.61)	0.001	1.43	(1.16, 1.78)	0.002

Abbreviations: HR: hazard ratio; CI: confidence interval; ICD-10: International Classification of Diseases, version 10; ICPC-2: International Classification of Primary Care, version 2.

^a Per 10 predictor events.

Figure 1. Receiver operator characteristics (ROC) curve for prognostic index (gender, elevated lab tests, class B-drugs, new sick leaves, and alcohol-related ICPC-2 and ICD-10 diagnoses), for n = 16,814 patients from the Stavanger area in Norway, for comprehensive alcohol use disorder. Abbreviations: ICD-10: International Classification of Diseases, version 10; ICPC-2: International Classification of Primary Care, version 2.