Future forests: Perceptions and strategies of key actors

Abstract

This paper investigates how key actors perceive the future of the forest sector: how they position themselves in relation to climate, energy and demography related trends. Actors’ perceptions of future challenges and opportunities influence their choice of strategy and action. Actors’ relative capacity to realise their visions, in turn, shape future forest use. Frame analysis is used to explore selected actor's perceptions and strategies and the existence of major divisions, i.e. frame conflicts. Empirically, the study is based on the case of Sweden as a typical boreal forest producing region. Actors’ perceptions of the challenges facing the forest sector diverge widely. Yet, most actors see the future of the forest sector as linked to broader issues of climate mitigation and energy transition. These issues trigger fundamental discussions about social change and the role of forests in future society. A major division separates actors who perceive biomass supply as unlimited, or at least not constraining, and those who stress scarcity and re-distribution of resources. This difference, or frame conflict, is reflected in actors’ forest related strategies and may fuel future forest debates and conflicts.

Keywords:

• Climate change
• energy transition
• forest sector
• frame analysis
• futures studies
• perceptions
• strategies
• Sweden

Acknowledgements

The research was funded through Future Forests, a multi-disciplinary research programme supported by the Foundation for Strategic Environmental Research (MISTRA), the Swedish Forestry Industry, the Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SLU), Umeå University, and the Forestry Research Institute of Sweden.