Franchise extensions and second-order contests: evidence from German local elections

Figures & data

Table 1. OLS-regressions of relative change in local election turnout.

	1	2	3	4
Constant	−3.27*(1.18)	−3.27*(1.19)	−3.27*(1.19)	−3.29*(1.19)
Period dummies†
1990–1993	−3.23(4.26)	−3.23(4.29)	−3.23(4.29)	−1.72(2.91)
1994–1997	−0.66(2.59)	−0.43(2.56)	0.59(2.77)	2.99(3.07)
1998–2001	−15.98***(2.25)	−15.24***(2.05)	−12.32**(3.07)	−12.16**(3.04)
2002–2005	−5.36*(1.91)	−5.36*(1.92)	−5.36*(1.92)	−5.89*(2.15)
2006–2009	0.10(2.64)	0.10(2.66)	0.10(2.66)	−0.38(2.89)
2010–2013	3.30(1.98)	3.30(1.99)	3.30(1.99)	3.26(2.19)
2014–2017	2.51(2.22)	2.92(2.29)	2.51(2.24)	1.84(2.18)
2018–2019	22.36***(3.04)	22.63***(3.20)	22.36***(3.06)	22.33***(3.35)
1^st election Voting age 16		−2.46(2.33)		−0.06(2.42)
1^st election EU citizens			−4.58*(1.79)	−5.35*(1.97)
1^st election directly elected mayors				−3.79(2.79)
1^st election with concurrent EP poll				2.00(3.94)
Big change in size of municipality				3.88(6.53)
Change in the unemployment rate				−0.17(0.99)
R^2	0.71	0.71	0.71	0.73
Adj. R^2	0.68	0.67	0.68	0.67

N = 86, + p < 0.10; * p < 0.05; ** p < 0.01; *** p < 0.001, cluster-corrected standard errors in parentheses. ^† Reference category: the years between 1978 and 1989.

Figure 1. Trends in local council turnout by state, 1980–2019.

Source: Own collection of data from the statistical offices of the Länder.

Figure 2. Relative change in turnout by period in percent.

Source: Own collection of data from the statistical offices of the Länder.