Seal the Deal: Bargaining Positions, Institutional Design, and the Duration of Preferential Trade Negotiations

Figures & data

Figure 1. Negotiation duration as function of bargaining and commitment costs.

Figure 2. Negotiation duration in days.

Figure 3. Difference in design templates.

Figure 4. Relative scope of PTAs.

Figure 5. Relative scope and negotiation duration for democracies and autocracies.

Table 1. Descriptive statistics.

Statistic	N	Mean	St. dev.	Min	Max
First stage:
Polity2 Score	307,347	11.97	5.69	0.00	20.00
Difference in design templates	276,00	0.75	0.20	0.02	1.00
Power-asymmetry	348,523	0.42	0.20	0.00	1.00
Veto players	294,436	0.24	0.65	0.00	0.69
Rule of law	324,071	−0.17	0.65	−1.67	2.02
Log trade flows	295,858	1.09	3.76	−29.20	11.35
WTO membership	303,714	0.73	0.45	0.00	1.00
PTA activity	336,394	6.18	3.87	0.00	36.60
Geographic distance	313,087	12,039.43	7,556.75	15.00	25,13
Common language	322,570	0.14	0.34	0.00	1.00
Contiguity	322,570	0.01	0.06	0.00	1.00
Colonial Past	322,570	0.00	0.04	0.00	1.00
Diffusion	348,523	26.14	16.22	7.00	94.00
Second stage:
Negotiation duration	242	911.50	804.80	26	5072
Democracy	242	0.57	0.50	0.00	1.00
Relative scope	244	0.14	0.14	0.00	0.62
Difference in design templates	224	0.62	0.20	0.06	1.00
Enforcement	230	6.32	1.09	4.00	9.00
Escape flexibility	231	4.23	1.23	0.00	5.00
Rigidity on flexibility	230	3.42	1.48	0.00	6.00
Member states	244	6.57	9.22	2	91
Power-asymmetry	244	0.47	0.50	0.00	1.00
Veto players	237	0.34	0.13	0.00	0.61
Rule of law	241	0.443	0.64	−0.97	1.75
Log of trade flows	201	14.25	5.04	−23.03	25.65
WTO membership	242	0.89	0.31	0	1
PTA activity	242	11.21	5.21	0	28
First PTA	244	0.17	0.38	0	1
Geographic distance	242	5,788.57	4,961.49	111.09	19,711.86
Common language	242	0.26	0.44	0	1
Year	242	2,002.63	5.77	1,99	2,01

Table 2. Baseline results on PTA selection and duration.

	Start of PTA negotiations	Negotiation duration
	(First stage)	(Second stage)
Democracy		−0.32
		(0.22)
Relative scope		−0.35
		(0.62)
Democracy * Relative scope		2.08**
		(0.83)
Difference in design templates	−0.50***	0.52**
	(0.077)	(0.26)
Enforcement		0.01
		(0.08)
Escape flexibility		−0.18**
		(0.07)
Rigidity on flexibility		0.19***
		(0.05)
Member states		0.02*
		(0.01)
First PTA		0.53***
		(0.20)
Power-asymmetry	0.46***	−0.15
	(0.05)	(0.14)
Veto players	−0.01	−1.28***
	(0.13)	(0.48)
Rule of law	0.17***	0.22*
	(0.03)	(0.13)
Log trade flows	0.01***	0.01
	(0.00)	(0.01)
WTO membership	0.22***	0.65***
	(0.05)	(0.25)
PTA activity	0.07***	−0.01
	(0.05)	(0.01)
Geographic distance	−0.02***	−0.03***
	(0.00)	(0.00)
Common language	−0.085*	−0.28*
	(0.05)	(0.17)
Year	−0.02***	−0.05***
	(0.03)	(0.01)
Polity2 score	0.01
	(0.01)
Contiguity	0.50***
	(0.11)
Colonial past	0.32**
	(0.16)
Diffusion	0.00
	(0.00)
Constant	40.78***	110.3***
	(7.20)	(29.08)
Observations	191,255	198
Robust standard errors in parentheses.
***p < 0.01, **p < 0.05, *p < 0.1

Table 3. Descriptive statistics on separate issue-areas .

Statistic	N	Mean	St. dev.	Min	Max
Relative scope variables:
RS competition	244	1.48	1.53	0.00	7.00
RS IPR	244	1.51	1.91	0.00	7.00
RS investment	244	1.90	2.71	0.00	10.00
RS NTIs	244	5.14	5.96	0.00	29.33
RS procurment	244	1.27	1.30	0.00	5.00
RS services	244	1.45	2.01	0.00	12.00
RS standards	244	2.11	2.15	0.00	10.00
Difference in design templates variables:
Difference in design templates (competition)	189	0.11	0.25	0.00	1.00
Difference in design templates (IPR)	118	0.03	0.20	0.00	1.00
Difference in design templates (investment)	185	0.04	0.15	0.00	0.74
Difference in design templates (NTIs)	200	0.12	0.26	0.00	1.00
Difference in design templates (procurement)	119	0.01	0.24	0.00	1.00
Difference in design templates (servcies)	172	0.09	0.23	0.00	1.00
Difference in design templates (standards)	188	0.10	0.24	0.00	1.00

Table 4. Baseline results on negotiation duration using issue areas separately.

	Competition	IPR	Investment	NTIs	Procurement	Services	Standards
Democracy	−0.026	−0.27	−0.24	−0.111	−0.24	−0.13	0.040
	(0.19)	(0.18)	(0.17)	(0.180)	(0.20)	(0.18)	(0.19)
RS competition policy	−0.43
	(0.74)
RS IPR		−0.48
		(0.38)
RS investment			−0.16
			(0.34)
RS NTI				−0.60
				(0.69)
RS procurement					−0.56***
					(0.18)
RS services						−0.51
RS standards						(0.74)	0.60
							(0.43)
Democracy * RS (specific)	0.37	1.42**	1.07**	2.05	0.74*	1.68*	0.36
	(0.77)	(0.55)	(0.45)	(1.691)	(0.43)	(0.91)	(0.59)
Difference in design templates (specific)	0.28	0.28	1.42***	0.16	0.49***	0.23	0.31
	(0.22)	(0.27)	(0.49)	(0.21)	(0.19)	(0.26)	(0.21)
Relative scope (overall)	0.68	0.40	−0.00	0.37	0.98	0.34	−0.55
	(0.73)	(0.62)	(0.68)	(0.635)	(0.74)	(0.83)	(0.79)
Difference in design templates (overall)	0.56*	0.52*	0.53**	0.50*	0.54*	0.53**	0.34
	(0.31)	(0.28)	(0.26)	(0.28)	(0.28)	(0.26)	(0.32)
Enforcement	0.02	0.04	0.04	0.04	0.02	0.03	0.02
	(0.08)	(0.08)	(0.07)	(0.0768)	(0.08)	(0.08)	(0.08)
Escape flexibility	−0.23***	−0.21***	−0.19***	−0.22***	−0.22***	−0.20***	−0.22***
	(0.07)	(0.07)	(0.07)	(0.07)	(0.07)	(0.07)	(0.07)
Rigidity on flexibility	0.20***	0.20***	0.20***	0.19***	0.19***	0.20***	0.20***
	(0.05)	(0.05)	(0.05)	(0.05)	(0.05)	(0.05)	(0.06)
Member states	0.01	0.02*	0.02*	0.0138	0.01*	0.01*	0.01
	(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.01)
Power	−0.07	−0.16	−0.07	−0.07	−0.12	−0.10	−0.03
	(0.14)	(0.15)	(0.13)	(0.13)	(0.13)	(0.17)	(0.14)
Veto players	−1.33***	−1.17**	−1.24***	−1.25**	−1.11**	−1.39***	−1.39***
	(0.49)	(0.49)	(0.47)	(0.50)	(0.50)	(0.54)	(0.48)
Rule of law	0.18	0.23*	0.11	0.15	0.20*	0.19	0.19
	(0.13)	(0.13)	(0.12)	(0.13)	(0.12)	(0.13)	(0.13)
Log trade flows	0.015	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02*	0.01	0.01
	(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.01)
WTO membership	0.65**	0.71***	0.62**	0.66**	0.55**	0.66**	0.66***
	(0.27)	(0.25)	(0.25)	(0.26)	(0.27)	(0.26)	(0.25)
PTA activity	−0.00	−0.00	−0.01	−0.01	−0.01	−0.01	0.00
	(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.01)
First PTA	0.62***	0.57***	0.51***	0.55***	0.66***	0.52**	0.44**
	(0.21)	(0.20)	(0.19)	(0.20)	(0.20)	(0.22)	(0.22)
Geographic distance	−0.03***	−0.03***	−0.03**	−0.03**	−0.03**	−0.03***	−0.03**
	(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.01)
Common language	−0.33*	−0.33**	−0.34**	−0.34*	−0.27	−0.33*	−0.26
	(0.18)	(0.16)	(0.15)	(0.19)	(0.17)	(0.17)	(0.17)
Year	−0.05***	−0.06***	−0.06***	−0.05***	−0.04***	−0.05***	−0.05***
	(0.01)	(0.02)	(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.01)
Constant	112.90***	125.30***	123.30***	113.70***	92.91***	113.30***	107.40***
	(28.60)	(31.53)	(27.31)	(28.24)	(27.62)	(30.60)	(28.65)
Observations	170	118	185	198	119	170	188

Robust standard errors in parentheses.

***p < 0.01, **p < 0.05, *p < 0.1