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International Interactions
Empirical and Theoretical Research in International Relations
Volume 48, 2022 - Issue 4: Lessons from a Conflict Escalation Prediction Competition
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Articles

Challenging the status quo: Predicting violence with sparse decision-making data

Konstantin Bätza University of KonstanzView further author information
,
Ann-Cathrin Klöcknera University of KonstanzView further author information
&
Gerald Schneidera University of Konstanz;b Uppsala UniversityCorrespondence[email protected]
ORCID Iconhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-0091-6217View further author information
ORCID Icon
Pages 697-713 | Received 15 Dec 2020, Accepted 02 Mar 2022, Published online: 24 Mar 2022

Figures & data

Figure 1. Overview of tasks and models.

Figure 1. Overview of tasks and models.

Figure 2. ViEWS Benchmark and own model for the forecasting period 10/20–03/21, based on data up to and including August 2020 (Task 1 MSE).

Figure 2. ViEWS Benchmark and own model for the forecasting period 10/20–03/21, based on data up to and including August 2020 (Task 1 MSE).

Figure 3. Calibrated models for the estimation period 01/90–12/16 and the forecasting period 01/17–12/19 (Task 2 MSE).

Figure 3. Calibrated models for the estimation period 01/90–12/16 and the forecasting period 01/17–12/19 (Task 2 MSE).

Figure 4. Calibrated models for the estimation period 01/90–12/13 and the forecasting period 01/14–12/16 (Task 3 MSE).

Figure 4. Calibrated models for the estimation period 01/90–12/13 and the forecasting period 01/14–12/16 (Task 3 MSE).

Figure 5. Calibrated models for the estimation period 01/90–06/20 and the forecasting period 07/20–9/20 (Task 4 MSE).

Figure 5. Calibrated models for the estimation period 01/90–06/20 and the forecasting period 07/20–9/20 (Task 4 MSE).

Figure 6. Changes in fatalities, South Sudan.

Figure 6. Changes in fatalities, South Sudan.

Table 1. Feature importance for model 3 in task 4.

Figure 7. Changes in fatalities, Nigeria.

Figure 7. Changes in fatalities, Nigeria.
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