The role of schools in explaining individuals’ subject choices at age 14

Figures & data

Table 1. Average academic performance at age 14 of pupils studying each GCSE subject ranked in ascending order.

Subject	Academic selectivity score
Single Science	31.14
Applied Science	31.77
Applied Home Economics	32.99
Other Foreign Language	33.85
Applied Business	34.46
Applied Media	34.78
Applied Office	34.82
Other Applied	34.82
Citizenship	35.29
Maths	35.32
English	35.35
Art	35.39
Design Technology	35.48
Drama	35.57
Applied IT	35.58
Double Science	35.64
Religious Education	35.92
Information Technology	36.21
Geography	36.63
History	37.17
French	37.38
Music	37.65
Spanish	37.71
German	38.17
Italian	38.47
Biology	41.40
Chemistry	41.70
Physics	41.75

Notes:

Constructed by calculating average point scores in KS3 tests in English, maths, and science at age 14 among all individuals who study each subject.

Table 2. Distribution of pupils from each quintile group of KS2 performance and the quintile group of the school’s intake as measured by KS2.

School	Individual					Total	Group size
	Q1 (Low)	Q2	Q3	Q4	Q5 (High)
Q1 (Low)	0.36	0.24	0.19	0.13	0.08	1.00	(0.09)
Q2	0.26	0.23	0.21	0.18	0.12	1.00	(0.17)
Q3	0.20	0.22	0.21	0.20	0.17	1.00	(0.22)
Q4	0.15	0.19	0.22	0.22	0.22	1.00	(0.27)
Q5 (High)	0.07	0.12	0.17	0.25	0.40	1.00	(0.25)
Overall	0.18	0.19	0.20	0.21	0.22	1.00	(1.00)

Notes:

Reporting row proportions, except for final column which reports column proportions. Sample: Young people at state schools with valid data on subject choices, gender, SES, and KS2 performance. Sample size = 542,944.

Table 3. Distribution of pupils from each quintile group of SES and the quintile group of the school’s SES intake.

School	Individual					Total	Group size
	Q1 (Low)	Q2	Q3	Q4	Q5 (High)
Q1 (Low)	0.61	0.24	0.09	0.04	0.02	1.00	(0.10)
Q2	0.28	0.32	0.21	0.12	0.07	1.00	(0.16)
Q3	0.13	0.25	0.26	0.21	0.15	1.00	(0.21)
Q4	0.06	0.15	0.25	0.29	0.25	1.00	(0.26)
Q5 (High)	0.02	0.07	0.16	0.29	0.46	1.00	(0.27)
Overall	0.16	0.18	0.21	0.22	0.23	1.00	(1.00)

Notes:

Reporting row proportions, except for final column which reports column proportions. Sample: Young people at state schools with valid data on subject choices, gender, SES, and KS2 performance. Sample size = 542,944.

Table 4. Distribution of pupils by gender and group of the school’s gender distribution.

School	Individual		Overall	Group size
	Female	Male
All-female	1.00		1.00	(0.08)
Mainly female	0.58	0.42	1.00	(0.18)
Gender balanced	0.51	0.49	1.00	(0.60)
Mainly male	0.41	0.59	1.00	(0.08)
All-male		1.00	1.00	(0.05)
Overall	0.52	0.48	1.00	(1.00)

Notes:

Reporting row proportions, except for final column which reports column proportions. Sample: Young people at state schools with valid data on subject choices, gender, SES, and KS2 performance. Sample size = 542,944. School gender distribution groups are as follows: All-female: prop. male = 0.00; mainly female: 0.00 < prop. male 0.45; gender balanced: 0.45 ≤ prop. male ≤ 0.55; mainly male: 0.55 < prop. male < 1.00; all-male: prop. male = 1.00. Group sizes may not quite sum to 1 due to rounding.

Table 5. Average academic subject selectivity of individuals by their KS2 performance and the average KS2 performance of their schoolmates.

School	Individual					Overall
	Q1 (Low)	Q2	Q3	Q4	Q5 (High)
Q1 (Low)	–0.77	–0.50	–0.33	–0.15	0.04	–0.59
Q2	–0.66	–0.36	–0.18	–0.01	0.20	–0.24
Q3	–0.54	–0.22	–0.03	0.15	0.37	–0.02
Q4	–0.50	–0.16	0.03	0.23	0.44	0.21
Q5 (High)	–0.38	–0.07	0.17	0.39	0.66	0.49
Overall	–0.48	–0.27	–0.07	0.05	0.35	0.00

Notes:

Cells report average standardised capped academic subject selectivity. Sample: Young people at state schools with valid data on subject choices, gender, SES, and KS2 performance. Sample size = 542,944.

Table 6. Average academic subject selectivity of individuals by their SES background and the average SES of their schoolmates.

School	Individual					Overall
	Q1 (Low)	Q2	Q3	Q4	Q5 (High)
Q1 (Low)	–0.51	–0.33	–0.20	–0.26	–0.14	–0.44
Q2	–0.49	–0.28	–0.18	–0.09	0.00	–0.17
Q3	–0.38	–0.19	–0.06	0.06	0.08	0.03
Q4	–0.25	0.00	0.12	0.19	0.29	0.15
Q5 (High)	–0.21	0.02	0.19	0.25	0.33	0.26
Overall	–0.42	–0.27	–0.09	0.14	0.25	0.00

Notes:

Cells report average standardised capped academic subject selectivity. Sample: Young people at state schools with valid data on subject choices, gender, SES, and KS2 performance. Sample size = 542,944.

Table 7. Average academic subject selectivity of individuals by their gender and the gender composition of schoolmates.

School	Individual		Overall
	Female	Male
All-female	0.31		0.31
Mainly female	–0.06	–0.19	–0.11
Gender balanced	0.02	–0.09	–0.03
Mainly male	–0.00	–0.06	–0.04
All-male		0.36	0.36
Overall	0.05	–0.06	0.00

Notes:

Cells report average standardised capped academic subject selectivity. Sample: Young people at state schools with valid data on subject choices, gender, SES, and KS2 performance. Sample size = 542,944.

Table 8. Variation in subject selectivity.

	M0	M1	M2	M3	M4
KS2 Z-score		0.321	0.322	0.308	0.308
		(76.93)***	(77.21)***	(76.10)***	(76.10)***
School KS2 Z-score		0.420	0.379	0.193	0.172
		(17.48)***	(14.23)***	(6.30)***	(4.14)***
Male			–0.127	–0.130	–0.130
			(–24.13)***	(–24.77)***	(–24.77)***
All-male school			0.156	0.270	0.278
			(3.91)***	(6.37)***	(6.35)***
Mainly male school			0.0302	0.0998	0.105
			(0.83)	(2.77)**	(2.91)**
Mainly female school			–0.0722	–0.0611	–0.0604
			(–2.60)	(–2.27)*	(–2.24)*
All-female school			0.103	0.230	0.239
			(3.22)**	(6.70)***	(6.75)***
SES Z-score				0.107	0.107
				(39.75)***	(39.75)***
School SES Z-score				0.124	0.129
				(4.90)***	(5.01)***
>5% in LA in selective schools					–0.0603
					(–2.00)*
Selective school					0.0659
					(1.22)
Dep. var. mean	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
ρ	0.32	0.27	0.27	0.26	0.26
N	344,148	344,148	344,148	344,148	344,148

Notes:

Sample: Young people at state schools with valid data on subject choices, gender, SES, and KS2 performance. Omitted categories are female and being in a gender balanced school. Reporting regression coefficients. t statistics in parentheses. Asterisks indicate statistical significance:

⁺ p < 0.10;

* p < 0.05;

** p < 0.01;

*** p < 0.001. ρ reports intra-cluster correlation coefficient from reported model.

Table 9. Odds ratios from logistic regression models of probability that individuals study specific combinations of subjects at age 14.

	3 Facil.	Applied	EBacc	Triple Sci.
KS2 Z-score	2.022	0.861	2.116	1.060
	(70.76)***	(–12.19)***	(75.10)***	(27.81)***
School KS2 Z-score	2.288	0.426	2.551	1.034
	(7.44)***	(–4.55)***	(8.14)***	(2.99)**
Male	0.969	0.710	0.918	1.016
	(–1.95)+	(–13.31)***	(–5.49)***	(13.93)***
All-male school	1.490	0.403	1.773	1.099
	(3.47)***	(–3.59)***	(4.35)***	(4.87)***
Mainly male school	1.115	1.023	1.020	1.019
	(1.13)	(0.13	(0.20)	(2.16)*
Mainly female school	0.838	0.948	0.820	1.004
	(–2.58)**	(–0.44)	(–2.70)**	(0.69)
All-female school	2.398	0.477	2.063	0.988
	(7.65)***	(–3.71)***	(7.53)***	(–1.02)
SES Z-score	1.279	0.993	1.253	1.004
	(36.00)	(–1.02)	(31.44)***	(6.62)***
School SES Z-score	1.209	0.857	1.581	1.001
	(3.29)***	(–1.59)	(6.95)***	(0.17)
>5% in LA in selective schools	0.824	1.077	0.761	0.987
	(–2.52)*	(0.55)	(–3.36)***	(–1.93)+
Selective school	3.909	0.0758	1.235	1.168
	(7.07)***	(–7.27)***	(1.26)	(6.09)***
Dep. var. mean	0.81	0.31	0.37	0.08
Uncond. ρ	0.40	0.67	0.42	0.29
Cond. ρ	0.30	0.64	0.32	0.23
N	344,148	344,148	344,148	344,148

Notes:

Sample: Young people at state schools with valid data on subject choices, gender, SES, and KS2 performance. Omitted categories are female and being in a gender balanced school. Reporting odds ratios (i.e. exponentiated coefficients from the logistic regression model). t statistics in parentheses. Asterisks indicate statistical significance:

⁺ p < 0.10;

* p < 0.05;

** p < 0.01;

*** p < 0.001. Uncond. ρ reports intra-cluster correlation coefficient from model of dependent variable including no covariates; Cond. ρ reports intra-cluster correlation coefficient from reported model. Column titles refer to model dependent variables, as follows: 3 Facil. = individual studies for at least three ‘facilitating’ subjects; Applied = individual studies for at least one ‘applied subject’; EBacc = individual studies a full set of subjects that would be required for eligibility for English Baccalaureate; Triple Sci. = individual studies for separate qualifications in physics, chemistry, and biology.