Expectations of progression to university among pupils in rural communities: the role of social influences

Figures & data

Table 1. Descriptive statistics at each date (five-point Likert scale).

	(1) November 2014	(2) November 2014	(3) March 2015
	Percentage Strongly Agree/Agree	Percentage Strongly Agree/Agree	Percentage Strongly Agree/Agree
Sample size	208	172	172
How likely do you think it is that you will go on to university when you leave school?	56.3	57.0	54.7
I do not feel that there are any obstacles to my going to university.	38.0	39.0	39.0
I would like to attend a university as close to home as possible.	25.0	26.8	26.7
I feel concerned that it will cost too much for me to go to university.	50.0	51.8	42.4
I do not think I will have the right qualifications to go to university.	34.6	33.7	28.5
I feel that I will enjoy going to university.	72.0	74.3	67.7
I am motivated to go to university.	61.1	64.0	59.9
My parents/guardians are enthusiastic about me going to university.	68.8	69.2	64.5
My peers are enthusiastic about me going to university.	48.1	47.7	50.6
My school is enthusiastic about me going to university.	57.2	57.6	64.5
Percentages for binary variables
Female	50.0	50.6	50.6
At least one parent attended university	33.2	33.8	33.8
S6	43.8	47.7	47.7
School A	11.5	14.0	14.0
School B	26.4	29.6	29.6
School C	62.1	56.4	56.4

Table 2. Ordered Logit estimates for progression to university variables: November.

	(1)	(2)
VARIABLES	Univprob	Univprob
Peers	0.69***	0.71***
	(0.15)	(0.15)
Parents	0.73***	0.75***
	(0.16)	(0.16)
School	0.10	0.06
	(0.16)	(0.15)
Money	0.15	0.11
	(0.13)	(0.13)
Quals	−0.67***	−0.65***
	(0.14)	(0.13)
Distance	−0.07	−0.11
	(0.13)	(0.12)
Female	−0.54*	−0.51*
	(0.30)	(0.30)
Univ Parent	0.51*	0.52*
	(0.30)	(0.29)
School A	−1.06**
	(0.45)
School B	−0.07
	(0.32)
S6	0.02	0.07
	(0.29)	(0.28)
Observations	208	208

Notes: Robust standard errors in parentheses, ***p < 0.01, **p < 0.05, *p < 0.1, cut points suppressed.

Variable Definitions:

Univprob: ‘How likely do you think it is that you will go on to university when you leave school?’, answers on an ordered five-point Likert scale, where 5 is coded as Very Likely and 1 is Very Unlikely.

Support variables.

Peers: ‘My peers are enthusiastic about me going to university’..

Parents: ‘My parents/guardians are enthusiastic about me going to university’.

School: ‘My school is enthusiastic about me going to university’..

All are answered on a five-point Likert scale, where 5 = Strongly Agree and 1 = Strongly Disagree.

Other variables.

Money: ‘I feel concerned that it will cost too much money for me to go to university’., 5 = Strongly Agree, 1 = Strongly Disagree.

Quals: ‘I do not think I will have the right qualifications to go to university’., 5 = Strongly Agree, 1 = Strongly Disagree.

Distance: ‘I would like to attend a university as close to home as possible’., 5 = Strongly Agree, 1 = Strongly Disagree.

Female: a binary dummy variable coded to 1 for female respondents and 0 for males.

Univ Parent: a binary dummy variable coded to 1 for respondents with a parent who attended university and 0 otherwise.

School A, School B: indicator variables for schools.

S6: a binary dummy variable set to 1 for pupils in sixth year (S6) and to 0 for those in fifth year (S5).

Figure 1. Predicted probability of selecting ‘Very Unlikely’/’Unlikely’ to progress to university by level of support in each category.

Figure 2. Predicted probability of progression to university by intensity of perceived qualification barriers.

Table 3. Ordered Logit estimates for expectations of progression to university by qualification barriers: November questionnaire.

	(1)	(2)
Variables	Univprob High qualification barriers	Univprob Low qualification barriers
Peers	0.49**	0.88***
	(0.21)	(0.32)
Parents	0.60**	0.86***
	(0.23)	(0.33)
School	−0.12	0.28
	(0.29)	(0.26)
Female	−0.10	−0.42
	(0.53)	(0.52)
Observations	72 (53% female)	79 (49% female)

Notes: Robust standard errors in parentheses.

***p < 0.01, **p < 0.05, *p < 0.1.

The regressions also include all the predictor variables reported in Table 2.

Figure 3. Predicted parental support for progression to university.

Table 4. OLS estimates for change in expectations of progression to university, November to March.

	(1)	(2)	(3)
	All	S5	S6
VARIABLES	∆Univprob	∆Univprob	∆Univprob
∆Peers	0.17*	0.30**	0.01
	(0.09)	(0.13)	(0.12)
∆Parents	0.19	0.20	0.24*
	(0.12)	(0.22)	(0.12)
∆School	0.02	−0.10	0.08
	(0.11)	(0.14)	(0.18)
∆Money	−0.04	−0.14	0.06
	(0.07)	(0.10)	(0.10)
∆Quals	−0.13**	−0.17	−0.12
	(0.06)	(0.11)	(0.08)
∆Distance	0.01	0.05	−0.04
	(0.08)	(0.10)	(0.11)
Female	0.33**	0.54***	0.12
	(0.16)	(0.20)	(0.29)
Paruniva	0.12	0.00	0.12
	(0.16)	(0.22)	(0.27)
School A	0.04	−0.26	0.61
	(0.28)	(0.28)	(0.57)
School B	−0.09	−0.13	0.01
	(0.17)	(0.24)	(0.26)
S6	−0.03
	(0.16)
Constant	−0.38**	−0.43**	−0.35
	(0.18)	(0.19)	(0.35)
Observations	172	90	82
R-squared	0.15	0.30	0.12

Notes: Robust standard errors in parentheses, ***p < 0.01, **p < 0.05, *p < 0.1.

∆ refers to the change in the value of a variable between November and March.

Data availability statement

The data cannot be publicly shared because of privacy regulations on pupils’ data. Participants were informed that only researchers have access to the data which will be treated as strictly confidential.