Interest rate prediction: a neuro-hybrid approach with data preprocessing

Abstract

The following research implements a differential evolution-based fuzzy-type clustering method with a fuzzy inference neural network after input preprocessing with regression analysis in order to predict future interest rates, particularly 3-month T-bill rates. The empirical results of the proposed model is compared against nonparametric models, such as locally weighted regression and least squares support vector machines, along with two linear benchmark models, the autoregressive model and the random walk model. The root mean square error is reported for comparison.

Keywords:

• interest rate prediction
• multiple regression analysis
• differential evolution-based fuzzy clustering
• and fuzzy inference neural network