Key criteria influencing the choice of Arctic shipping: a fuzzy analytic hierarchy process model

Figures & data

Figure 1. The Northern Sea Route (NSR) and the Northwest Passage (NWP).

Figure 2. The distance saved using the Northern Sea Route (NSR) for a voyage from Rotterdam to Korea.

Figure 3. The structure of the AHP model.

Table 1. Key ‘Economic Factors’ influencing the Arctic shipping decision.

Sub-criteria	Description	Sources
Fuel costs (F11)	Fuel consumption cost (including bunker, diesel and lubricating oil).	Laulajainen (2009); Ho (2010); Brubaker and Ragner (2010); Xu et al. (2011); Schøyen and Bråthen (2011); Hong (2012); Furuichi and Ostuka (2013); Lasserre (2014); Bourbonnais and Lasserre (2015); Lindstad, Bright, and Strømman (2016)
Crew costs (F12)	Costs related to officers and other crew members.	Liu and Kronbak (2010); Furuichi and Ostuka (2013); Lasserre (2014)
Insurance (F13)	H&M (hull and machinery), P&I (protection and indemnity).	Lasserre and Pelletier (2011); Xu et al. (2011); Furuichi and Ostuka (2013); Lasserre (2014)
Other transit costs (F14)	Other costs when transiting the routes.	Johnston (2002); Xu et al. (2011); Furuichi and Ostuka (2013)
Sailing time (F15)	Ship sailing time.	Lasserre and Pelletier (2011); Xu et al. (2011)

Table 2. Key ‘Technical Factors’ influencing the Arctic shipping decision.

Sub-criteria	Description	Sources
Ice breaker (F21)	Use of ice breakers to guide the vessels through shipping routes.	Xu et al. (2011)
Ship construction (F22)	Using an ice-class ship with thicker hull and more structural support.	Johnston (2002); Laulajainen (2009); Lasserre and Pelletier (2011); Hong (2012)
Navigation (F23)	Use of GPS//GLONASS (GLObal NAvigation Satellite System)/GMDSS(Global Maritime Distress and Safety System) to provide route recommendations.	Brubaker and Ragner (2010); Liu and Kronbak (2010); Schøyen and Bråthen 2011; Farré et al. (2014)
Communication (F24)	Use of communication technology to maintain clear message transmission (including voice and data transfer).	Ho (2010); Liu and Kronbak (2010); Farré et al. (2014)

Table 3. Key ‘Political Factors’ influencing the Arctic shipping decision.

Sub-criteria	Description	Sources
Coastal countries’ attitudes (F31)	Arctic shipping routes might be affected by coastal countries such as Russia and Canada.	Johnston (2002); Laulajainen (2009); Brubaker and Ragner (2010); Schøyen and Bråthen (2011); Hong (2012); Weber (2012)
Maritime conventions (F32)	Shipping right-of-way rules as established by the International Maritime Organization (IMO).	Pelletier and Lasserre (2012)
Stakeholder concerns (F33)	Stakeholders include Arctic and non-Arctic countries, shipping companies, port operators, governmental authorities, ship manufacturers, insurance companies, ship owners, shippers, legislators, logistics/warehouse service providers, environmental groups etc.	Johnston (2002); Ho (2010); Huang, Lasserre, and Alexeeva (2014)

Table 4. Key ‘Safety Factors’ influencing the Arctic shipping decision.

Sub-criteria	Description	Sources
Weather and geographic complexity (F41)	Harsh weather conditions (e.g. extreme coldness, fog, storms, total darkness) and drifting ice.	Lasserre and Pelletier (2011)
Risk of crew health and safety (F42)	Crews might fall ill in Arctic bad weather or suffer an accident.	Lasserre (2014)
Search and rescue (F43)	Search and rescue support services in case of emergency.	Ho 2010; Schøyen and Bråthen (2011); Lasserre (2014)
Environmental concerns (F44)	Environmental pollution from spill of oil, chemicals, ballast water etc.	Lasserre and Pelletier (2011); Hong (2012)

Table 5. Taiwanese shipping companies identified within the sampling frame.

Evergreen Marine Crop. Ltd. Yang Ming Line Wan Hai Lines T.S. Line Hanjin Pacific Corp. Chinese Maritime Transport Ltd. NYK Line COSCO Shipping Cheng Lie Navigation (CNC) Line Orient Overseas Container Line Taiwan Navigation Corp. Ltd.

Table 6. Profile of the survey respondents.

Characteristic	Range	Frequency	Percentage (%)
Job title	President/Director	3	13.04
	Senior deputy director	5	21.74
	Division director	5	21.74
	Supervisor	4	17.39
	Senior engineer	6	26.09
Age (years)	Under 40	4	17.39
	41~50	4	17.39
	51~60	13	56.52
	Above 60	2	8.70
Educational Level	Bachelor	17	73.91
	Master	6	26.09
Seniority	10~15	4	17.39
	16~20	8	34.78
	21~25	5	21.74
	Above 26	6	26.09

Table 7. Results of the FAHP analysis.

Factor	Local weights	Consistency ratio (CR)	Attributes	Local weights	Global weights	Rank
Economic	0.3045	0.01724	Fuel costs	0.2374 0.1897 0.2007 0.1991 0.1730	0.0723 0.0578 0.0611 0.0606 0.0527	3 12 7 8 14
			Crew costs Insurance Other transit costs Sailing Time
Technical	0.2174	0.06897	Ice breaker	0.2583 0.2298 0.2400 0.2719	0.0562 0.0500 0.0522 0.0591	13 16 15 11
			Ship construction Navigation Communication
Political Climate	0.1887	0.00172	Right of navigation	0.3608	0.0681	5
			Maritime conventions	0.3190	0.0602	10
			Stakeholder concerns	0.3201	0.0604	9
Safety	0.2894	0.08621	Weather and geographic complexity	0.2522	0.0730	2
			Risk of crew health and safety	0.2798	0.0810	1
			Search and rescue	0.2309	0.0668	6
			Environmental concerns	0.2372	0.0686	4

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