Traffic and freight flow predictions and effects of capacity expansion in the urban–port road interface: The case of a port city in Poland

Figures & data

Figure 1. Research framework.

Table 1. Results of primary traffic flow surveys conducted in the road urban–port system in Szczecin from October 2016 to November 2016.

Average Annual Daily Traffic (AADT)
Descriptive Statistics	Cars	Vans	Light vehicles	Trucks	Buses	Total
Minimum	333.9	63.5	9.7	6.0	0.0	413.1
Maximum	49,737.6	3,325.2	1,294.5	1,709.0	1,052.1	57,118.4
Mean	6,957.1	709.3	290.7	382.3	156.5	8,496.0
Median	2,969.0	414.2	137.9	196.2	71.9	4,552.7
Stand. Dev.	12,334.6	905.6	368.1	467.7	317.2	14,222.2
Skewness	3.1	2.3	2.0	1.9	2.5	3.0
Count	17	17	17	17	17	17
(II) Average Annual Traffic (AAT)
Descriptive Statistics	Cars	Vans	Light vehicles	Trucks	Buses	Total
Minimum	122,209.4	23,249.4	3,564.6	2,189.4	0.0	151,212.8
Maximum	18,203,943.6	1,217,023.8	473,794.6	625,501.4	385,060.6	20,905,324.0
Mean	2,546,307.7	259,599.8	106,393.1	139,931.2	57,296.8	3,109,528.5
Median	1,086,645.0	151,612.0	50,456.0	71,821.9	26,299.4	1,666,304.4
Stand. Dev.	4,514,477.8	331,465.9	134,726.1	171,176.5	116,081.7	5,205,327.4
Skewness	3.1	2.3	2.0	1.9	2.5	3.0
Count	17	17	17	17	17	17
(III) Estimation of average trucks velocity on the port key bottleneck roads
Specifications	Value					Unit
Observations	34
Average cars velocity	15.58					km/h
Standard deviation	2.96					km/h
Standard error	0.51					km/h
Significance level	0.05
t-Student statistics	2.035
Maximal error	1.05					km/h
Relative precision	6.7					%

Source: Own research conducted from October to November 2016; part III—Google Traffic was used.

Table 2. Throughput forecast by cargo groups in port of Szczecin (tonnes).

Year	Coal	Iron ore + other bulk	Grain	General cargo	Container general cargo	Oil and oil products	Total
2020	1,630,214	4,022,226	1,188,335	2,037,224	700,672	228,883	9,807,554
2025	1,793,407	4,503,193	1,418,652	2,037,224	888,382	228,883	10,869,741
2030	1,962,402	5,001,260	1,657,158	2,037,224	1,082,765	228,883	11,969,692
2035	2,126,297	5,484,298	1,888,468	2,037,224	1,271,283	228,883	13,036,453
2040	2,283,615	5,947,952	2,110,495	2,037,224	1,452,236	228,883	14,060,406
2043	2,379,584	6,230,795	2,245,938	2,037,224	1,562,623	228,883	14,685,046

Source: Own study.

Table 3. Forecasted freight flow by means of hinterland transport in port of Szczecin.

Year	Freight (tonnes)				Structure (%)
	Barges	Trucks	Rail	Total	Barges	Trucks	Rail	Total
2020	851,190	4,318,980	3,705,205	8,875,376	9.59%	48.66%	41.75%	100.00%
2025	979,926	5,427,747	4,462,069	10,869,741	9.02%	49.93%	41.05%	100.00%
2030	1,065,951	6,063,016	4,840,724	11,969,692	8.91%	50.65%	40.44%	100.00%
2035	1,149,381	6,679,118	5,207,954	13,036,453	8.82%	51.23%	39.10%	100.00%
2040	1,229,463	7,270,496	5,560,448	14,060,406	8.74%	51.71%	39.55%	100.00%
2043	1,278,315	7,631,253	5,775,478	14,685,046	8.70%	51.97%	39.33%	100.00%

Source: Own study.

Table 4. Forecasted number of trucks and freight flows (tonnes) on selected roads leading directly to reloading areas of port of Szczecin.

	#1		#2		#3
Year/road	Trucks	Freight	Trucks	Freight	Trucks	Freight
2020	39,000	384,667	274,711	2,410,037	56,426	303,650
2025	52,963	483,418	362,191	3,028,741	241,908	1,818,020
2030	60,039	539,998	406,527	3,383,228	268,618	1,995,264
2035	64,712	594,871	435,802	3,727,019	287,661	2,167,159
2040	67,715	647,542	454,615	4,057,014	301,295	2,332,157
2043	69,268	679,672	464,344	4,258,320	308,739	2,432,810

Source: Own study.

Table 5. Truck speed correction indices depending on technical road wear and tear.

Average vehicle speed determined based on speed-traffic flow relations—road in good technical condition	35.4	km/h
Average vehicle speed determined based on statistical study—road in poor technical condition	15.58	km/h
Speed correction index for high level road wear and tear	44.0%
Speed correction index for medium level of road wear and tear	62.7%
Speed correction index for low level of road wear and tear	81.3%

Source: Own study.

Table 6. Accumulated (in 2024–2043) transport effects resulting from capacity expansion in the road urban-port system.

Transport and traffic performance	WI	W0	WI—W0
In-service work (vehicle-kilometres, v-km)	95,007,071.0	95,007,071.0	0.0
Truck trip time (vehicle-hours, v-hs)	3,636,717.0	6,414,004.0	− 2,777,287.0
Truck drivers’ working time (working hours, w-hs),	3,636,717.0	6,414,004.0	− 2,777,287.0
Freight road traffic time (tonne-hours, t-hs)	34,854,504.0	61,520,413.0	−26,665,909.0
Trucks’ CO2 emission (tonnes of CO2, tCO2)	75,378.2	106,977.2	−31,599.0

Source: Own study.