Predicting outcomes in sport and exercise science degrees: the effect of qualification pathways

Figures & data

Table 1. Descriptive statistics for the student sample.

	Category	Students N (%)	Total UCAS tariff	Tariff from 3
Gender	Male	275 (78.8%)	300 ± 87	261 ± 70
	Female	74 (21.2%)	309 ± 78	267 ± 61
Ethnicity	White	213 (61%)	296 ± 79	259 ± 67
	BME	136 (39%)	310 ± 95	268 ± 69
POLAR 4	Quintile 1	48 (13.8%)	294 ± 73	266 ± 71
	Quintile 2	62 (17.8%)	323 ± 94*	282 ± 75*
	Quintile 3	79 (22.6%)	318 ± 105*	273 ± 74*
	Quintile 4	77 (22.1%)	296 ± 68	257 ± 60
	Quintile 5	83 (23.8%)	279 ± 73*	240 ± 54*
SEC representation in HE	Under- represented	163 (46.7)	311 ± 92*	268 ± 70
	High representation	108 (30.9%)	293 ± 74*	255 ± 61
	Missing data	78 (22.3%)
Level 3 qualifications	A-Levels	183 (53.9%)	265 ± 59*	227 ± 36**
	Mixed A/BTEC	68 (19.5%)	345 ± 86*	282 ± 63**
	BTEC	83 (23.8%)	348 ± 96*	325 ± 75**
	Other	10 (2.9%)

Mean ± SD;* = p < 0.05 between under-represented vs. high-representation in HE; POLAR 4 Q5 vs. Q2 and Q5 vs. Q3; A-Level vs. BTEC, A-Level vs. Mixed, ** = p < 0.05 all pairwise comparisons within Level 3 qualifications (n = 340).

Figure 1. Percent of level 3 qualification by POLAR4 quintile.

Figure 2. Percent of degree classification by level 3 qualification.

Figure 3. Percent of degree classification by Total UCAS tariff group. a) all Level 3 qualifications, and b) A-Level only.

Figure 4. Percent of degree classification by Tariff from 3 group a) all Level 3 qualifications, and b) A-Level only.

Table 2. Predictors’ unique contributions in the final multinomial logistic regression model.

Predictor	χ^2	df	p
Level 3 qualification	36.54	6	<0.001**
Tariff from 3	25.04	6	<0.001**
Ethnicity	6.91	3	0.075
Gender	6.90	3	0.075

** = p < 0 .01 (n = 259)

Table 3. Individual parameter estimates for the final multinomial logistic regression model.

		B	SE	95% CI for Odds Ratio
				Odds Ratio (Exp(B))	Lower	Upper
	2.2 Intercept	1.707**	0.647
	2.1 Intercept	2.725**	0.605
	1^st Intercept	2.294**	0.708
Level 3 Qualification (vs. A-Levels)	2.2 BTEC	−1.892**	0.665	0.151	0.041	0.555
	2.2 Mixed	−0.533	0.605	0.587	0.179	1.919
	2.1 BTEC	−2.021**	0.592	0.132	0.042	0.423
	2.1 Mixed	−1.799**	0.603	0.165	0.051	0.539
	1^st BTEC	−4.397**	1.204	0.012	0.001	0.130
	1^st Mixed	−0.891	0.695	0.410	0.105	1.604
Tariff from 3 (vs. >260)	2.2 < 220	−0.434	0.634	0.648	0.187	2.243
	2.2 220–260	−1.443*	0.631	0.236	0.069	0.813
	2.1 < 220	−0.930	0.614	0.394	0.118	1.313
	2.1 220–260	−0.618	0.551	0.539	0.183	1.586
	1^st <220	−2.795**	0.844	0.061	0.012	0.319
	1^st 220–260	−1.401*	0.685	0.246	0.064	0.944
Gender (vs. Male)	2.2 Female	1.488	0.821	4.430	0.886	22.152
	2.1 Female	1.700*	0.792	5.471	1.159	25.835
	1^st Female	1.167	0.893	3.213	0.558	18.486
Ethnicity (vs. White)	2.2 BME	−0.266	0.437	0.766	0.325	1.803
	2.1 BME	−0.712	0.407	0.491	0.221	1.090
	1^st BME	−1.364**	0.630	0.256	0.074	0.878

* = p < 0.05, ** = p < 0 .01; reference degree category is Fail; reference group for each predictor category is shown in brackets; (n = 259) χ²(18), = 76.08, Nagelkerke R² = 0.28, p < 0.001.