Storage Life Prediction for a High-Performance Capacitor Using Multi-Phase Wiener Degradation Model

Abstract

Capacitance is a critical performance characteristic of high-voltage-pulse capacitor which is used to store and discharge electrical energy rapidly. The capacitors usually are stored for a long period of time before put into use. Experimental result and engineering experience indicate that the capacitance increases with storage time and will eventually exceed the failure threshold, which means that the capacitor may fail during storage. This is a typical mode of degradation failure for long storage products. Further, the capacitance degradation path can be extrapolated in several stages based on the shifting characteristics. That is, the capacitance increases slowly or fluctuates in the initial storage stage that lasts about three months. Then it increases sharply in the middle stage which lasts about four months. After the two stages, the capacitor enters into the third stage in which capacitance increases constantly. This degradation phenomenon motivates us to study the storage life prediction method based on multi-phase degradation path model. The storage performance degradation mechanism of high-voltage-pulse capacitor was investigated, which provides the physical basis for multi-phase Wiener degradation model. Identification procedure for the transition points in the degradation path was proposed using maximum likelihood principle (MLP). The result of Kruskal-Wallis test which is the method to test whether two populations are consistent or not in statistics showed that the transition points are statistically effective. Other parameters in the multi-phase degradation model are estimated with maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) after the transition points have been specified. The multi-phase Inverse Gaussian (IG) distribution for storage life was deduced for the capacitor, and the point and interval estimation procedure for reliable storage life are constructed with bootstrap method. The efficiency and effectiveness of the proposed multi-phase degradation model is compared with storage life prediction under single-phase condition.

Keywords:

• High-voltage-pulse capacitor
• Identification of change point
• Multi-phase wiener process
• Performance degradation path model
• Storage life prediction

Mathematics Subject Classification:

• 62M20

Acknowledgment

The authors acknowledge, with gratitude, the helpful comments of anonymous referees and the Associate Editor. This research was supported by the National Science Foundation of China under contract 60804054.