Abstract
Stock market returns often tend to follow a non-normal probability distribution due to extreme losses in the tails. These cause fatter tails than normal and consequently heavy-tailed probability distributions are mostly used for modeling returns. In this work, we consider the generalized T (GT) distribution which can be heavy-tailed through its parameters and propose to use it in modeling the random stock returns. The GT distribution also contains the normal, Student t and generalized Laplace distributions as special or limiting cases of the shape parameters. The closed form expressions for the important risk measures are obtained. In case of a portfolio modeling, a multivariate extension of the distribution within the class of elliptical distributions is used. The tail mean-variance portfolio model based on the multivariate GT distribution is developed and optimal portfolio problem is solved. Risk measures for the random return of an asset whose density function is a mixture of the GT densities are obtained. The computability of all expressions derived is shown, and a real data application consisting of seven real stocks from the same sector is given.
Acknowledgments
The authors express their sincere thanks to an anonymous reviewer for the valuable comments and suggestions on an earlier version of this manuscript.