Artificial neural network (ANN) in forecasting of poverty line and economic-energetic efficiencies into the maize-based agroecosystems

Figures & data

Figure 1. Artificial neural network (ANN) architecture.

Table 1. Variables of the model.

Variable	Name	Type	Levels
X1	Community	Categorical	Community name
X2	Schooling	Discrete	Age
X3	Experience	Discrete	Working years
X4	Farm area	Continuous	Production area
X5	Sowing rate	Continuous	Number of seeds sown
X6	Type of seed	Categorical	(1) commercial maize seed (2) white-creole maize (3) yellow-creole maize (4) purple-creole maize.
X7	Crop density	Continuous	Quantity of plants per square meter (plants·m^−2).
X8	Soil tillage practices	Binary	(1) mechanical process (2) traditional process
X9	Chemical weed control	Binary	(1) chemical control applied (2) chemical control not applied.
X10	Pest management	Binary	(1) pest program included (2) pest program not included
X11	Fertilization	Binary	(1) fertilization applied in AES (2) fertilization not applied in AES
X12	Maize selling prices	Continuous	Sale price per kilogram of maize.
X13	Man-hours	Continuous	Man-hours worked in MJ/ha^−1
X14	Man-hours in MJ ha^−1	Continuous	Man-hours worked in MJ/ha^−1
X15	Total MJ ha^−1	Continuous	MJ expended to produce one ha^−1 of maize
X16	Maize marketplace	Categorical	(1) Local market (2) external market (3) Tantoyuca city market (0) none of the above.
X17	Product presentations on the market	Binary	(0) kernels (1) ear of maize
X18	Planting season	Categorical	(1) Seasonal (2) Tonalmil (3) the previous two.
Y1 (Output)	ECE	Continuous	Economic efficiencies
Y2 (Output)	ENE	Continuous	Energy efficiencies
Y3 (Output)	PCOVER	Continuous	Poverty line coverage

Table 2. Number of data used for training, validation, and testing.

Network	Data
	Sample size	Training	Validation	Test
ECE	147	103	22	22
ENER	147	103	22	22
PCOVER	147	103	22	22

Table 3. Best training, validation, and test results.

Network	Neurons in the hidden layer	R-Training	R-Validation	R-Test	MSE
	10	0.81076	0.66031	0.58055	0.87442
ECE, ENER, PCOVER	11	0.86934	0.63301	0.18937	1.2211
	12	0.83066	0.51384	0.45463	1.4516
	13	0.80528	0.69529	0.72058	1.3222
	14	0.81621	0.86435	0.84518	0.53366

Figure 2. ANN model performance.

Figure 3. Linear regression models from the developed ANN.

Figure 4. Sensitivity analysis for the output variable ECE/ha.

Figure 5. Sensitivity analysis for the output variable ENE/ha.

Figure 6. Sensitivity analysis for the output variable PCOVER.

Figure 7. Displays a comparison between observed values (Table 3) -vs- Modified values (Table 4) in ECE/ha.

Table 4. Major impact variables that maximizes the efficiencies on the use of the human resources.

Community	Input variables			Output variables
	Farm area (ha)	Total MJ ha^−1	Product presentation††	ECE^† ha^−1	ENE^† ha^−1	PCOVER^†
Crucero Palmito	3	635.66	0	0.70274	0.61589	−0.03363
Los Ajos	2	682.25	0	4.27350	3.09869	0.23699
Julio Juárez	0.5	288.04	1	5.64784	1.03408	0.01854
Mezquite	1	5177.87	0	1.40845	0.76533	0.01418
San Sebastián	1.5	808.14	0	3.34225	1.75159	0.10280

^†Economic efficiency (ECE); Energy efficiency (ENE); Poverty line coverage (PCOVER).

^††(0) kernels (1) ear of maize.

Table 5. Modified impact variables to maximize the economic efficiencies on the use of resources.

Community	Input variables			Output variables
	Farm area (ha)	Total MJ ha^−1	Product presentation^††	ECE^† ha^−1	ENE^† ha^−1	PCOVER^†
Crucero Palmito	1	5	0	0.9841	0.5032	0.44799
Los Ajos	1	5	0	2.7952	2.4981	−0.04489
Julio Juárez	0.25	5	1	4.6763	1.2304	−0.04581
Mezquite	0.5	5	0	1.4091	0.8902	−0.02607
San Sebastián	1	5	0	1.2245	0.8345	0.03981

^†Economic efficiency (ECE); Energy efficiency (ENE); Poverty line coverage (PCOVER).

^††(0) kernels (1) ear of maize.

Table 6. Modified impact variables to minimize the economic efficiencies on the use of resources.

Community	Input variables			Output variables
	Farm area (ha)	Total MJ ha^−1	Product presentation^††	ECE^† ha^−1	ENE^† ha^−1	PCOVER^†
Crucero Palmito	3	10000	0	0.53440	0.29561	0.46933
Los Ajos	2	10000	0	0.79309	0.41534	−0.04552
Julio Juárez	0.5	10000	1	10.11760	2.22880	−0.04567
Mezquite	1	10000	0	1.04430	0.41980	−0.04166
San Sebastián	1.5	10000	0	0.87591	0.38522	−0.03021

^†Economic efficiency (ECE); Energy efficiency (ENE); Poverty line coverage (PCOVER).

^††(0) kernels (1) ear of maize.

Figure 8. Displays a comparison between observed values (Table 6) and modified values (Table 7) for energy efficiency (Ene ha⁻¹) at a sowing rate of 50 kg ha⁻¹.

Table 7. Major impact variables to maximize the efficiencies on the use of energy.

Community	Input variables			Output variables
	Farm area (ha)	Sowing rate (kg ha^−1)	Total MJ ha^−1	ECE^† ha^−1	ENE^† ha^−1	PCOVER^†
Crucero Palmito	3	14	635.66	0.70274	0.61590	−0.03364
Los Ajos	2	14	682.25	4.27350	3.09869	0.23699
Julio Juárez	0.5	7	288.04	5.64784	1.03408	0.01854
Mezquite	1	14	5177.87	1.40845	0.76533	0.01418
San Sebastián	1.5	19	808.14	3.34225	1.75159	0.10280

^†Economic efficiency (ECE); Energy efficiency (ENE); Poverty line coverage (PCOVER).

Table 9. Modified impact variables to minimize the economic efficiencies on the use of energetic resources.

Community	Input variables			Output variables
	Farm area (ha)	Sowing rate (kg ha^−1)	Total MJ ha^−1	ECE^† ha^−1	ENE^† ha^−1	PCOVER^†
Crucero Palmito	1	7	5	0.6911	0.3433	0.3350
Los Ajos	1	6	4	1.4120	0.8913	−0.0455
Julio Juárez	0.25	4.5	3	4.3535	0.9980	−0.0458
Mezquite	0.5	7	2	1.7537	1.0122	−0.0406
San Sebastián	2	9.5	5	1.0044	0.6574	−0.0338

^†Economic efficiency (ECE); Energy efficiency (ENE); Poverty line coverage (PCOVER).

Table 8. Modified impact variables to maximize the economic efficiencies on the use of energetic resources.

Community	Input variables			Output variables
	Farm area (ha)	Sowing rate (kg ha^−1)	Total MJ ha^−1	ECE^† ha^−1	ENE^† -1	PCOVER^†
Crucero Palmito	3	50	15000	2.4046	1.7016	−0.6161
Los Ajos	2	50	15000	0.5332	0.3457	0.1967
Julio Juárez	0.5	50	15000	0.4188	0.3431	−0.0441
Mezquite	1	50	15000	1.1917	1.2175	0.2204
San Sebastián	1.5	50	15000	3.7403	2.6504	0.4397

†^{Economic efficiency (ECE); Energy efficiency (ENE); Poverty line coverage (PCOVER).}.

Table 10. Major impact variables to maximize the percentage of poverty line coverage.

Community	Input variables				Output variables
	Crop density (plants m^−2)	Pest management	Fertilization	Maize selling Prices ($Mx)	ECE^† ha^−1	ENE^† ha^−1	PCOVER^†
Crucero Palmito	1	1	2	5	0.7027	0.6159	−0.0336
Los Ajos	0.64	1	2	5	4.2735	3.0987	0.2361
Julio Juárez	1.2	2	2	8.5	5.6478	1.0341	0.0185
Mezquite	0.8	1	2	5	1.4085	0.7653	0.0142
San Sebastián	1	1	2	5	3.3423	1.7516	0.1028

^†Economic efficiency (ECE); Energy efficiency (ENE); Poverty line coverage (PCOVER).

Table 11. Modified impact variables to maximize the percentage of poverty line coverage.

Community	Input variables				Output variables
	Crop density (plants m^−2)	Pest management	Fertilization	Maize selling prices ($Mx)	ECE^† ha^−1	ENE^† ha^−1	PCOVER^†
Crucero Palmito	3	2	1	1	0.9439	0.7577	0.6180
Los Ajos	1.5	2	1	1	0.9631	0.3845	0.1694
Julio Juárez	2	2	1	2	1.3904	0.7630	−0.0433
Mezquite	3	2	1	2	3.7952	0.9600	−0.0146
San Sebastián	4	2	1	2	4.2977	1.3781	0.2351

^†Economic efficiency (ECE); Energy efficiency (ENE); Poverty line coverage (PCOVER).

Table 12. Modified impact variables to minimize the percentage of poverty line coverage.

Community	Input variables				Output variables
	Crop density (plants m^−2)	Pest management	Fertilization	Maize sale prices ($Mx)	ECE^† ha^−1	ENE^† ha^−1	PCOVER^†
Crucero Palmito	0.6	1	2	2	0.4187	0.2715	0.6109
Los Ajos	0.5	2	1	2	1.6752	0.3170	−0.0289
Julio Juárez	1	2	1	4	1.6752	0.5966	−0.0457
Mezquite	0.4	1	2	3	1.7634	0.7085	0.0082
San Sebastián	0.5	2	2	3	4.5487	1.6009	0.1419

^†Economic efficiency (ECE); Energy efficiency (ENE); Poverty line coverage (PCOVER).

Table A1. Classification and description of these input/output variables.

Variable and type variable	Description
Community (linguistic variable)	Describe the community’s name in which questionnaires was applied within Tantoyuca, Veracruz region.
Schooling (discrete variable)	It is the schooling level of the farmer. The value taken by this variable was (1) for primary school, (2) for secondary school, (3) for high school, and (4) to bachelor´s degree.
Experience (continuous variable)	Describe the working years of the farmers in their AES.
Farm area (continuous variable)	Production area in the farm measured in hectares.
Sowing rate (continuous variable)	Quantity of seeds (kg·ha-1) used to sow the farm area.
Type of seed (discrete variable)	Type of seed used to sow the farm area. The value taken by this variable was (1) for commercial maize seed, (2) for white-creole maize, (3) for yellow-creole maize, and (4) for purple-creole maize.
Crop density (discrete variable)	Quantity of plants per square meter (plants·m-2).
Soil tillage practices (binary variable)	Refer to methods of soil preparation before to sow. There are two principal methods employed by the farmers, taking values of (1) for mechanical process and (2) for traditional process.
Chemical weed control (binary variable)	Denote the application of a chemical control of weeds. The value taken by this variable was (1) when the chemical control is applied and (2) when the chemical control is not applied.
Pests management (binary variable)	Imply a pest management program into the AES. The value taken by this variable was (1) whether the farmer include a pest program and (2) when the program is not involved.
Fertilization (binary variable)	Application or not of a fertilization program into the AES. There are two possible values taken by this variable: (1) whether the fertilization program is applied in the AES or (2) whether the farmer has not applied any fertilization program.
Maize selling prices (continuous variable)	Refer to the sale price per kilogram of maize.
Man-hours (continuous variable)	Number of man-hours worked per hectare.
Man-hours in Mega Joules per hectare [MJ·ha-1] (continuous variable)	Number of man-hours worked per hectare, expressed as Mega Joules required to produce one hectare of maize.
Total Mega Joules per hectare [MJ·ha-1] (continuos variable)	Amount of energy expended in Mega Joules to produce one hectare of maize, calculated via man-hours in mega joules variable.
Maize marketplace (discrete variable)	Indicate the place where the maize production can be sold: (1) Local market (within each community), (2) external market (outside of the community), (3) Tantoyuca city market (county seat), and (0) none of the above.
Product presentations on the market	Maize commercial presentation on the market: (0) kernels, (1) ear of maize
(discrete variable) Planting season (discrete variable)	It is the part of the year during the local weather conditions allow the normal plant growth, which includes (1) Seasonal, (2) Tonalmil, and (3) the previous two.
ECE [Economic efficiencies] (output variable)	Result between the total sum of the annual incoming per hectare from the maize commercialization, and the total sum of the costs from maize production per hectare for the i-th activity done during the productive process of maize.
ENE [Energy efficiencies] (output variable)	To calculate this variable was used the total sum of the generated energy per hectare into the maize production, divided by the total sum of the energy expended per hectare in the i-th maize productive activity by year.
PCOVER [Poverty line coverage] (output variable)	It is understood as a deprivation of material welfare, which is generally associated with to a lack of opportunities and capabilities most basic to human and social development (Sengul and Tuncer 2005)

Sengul S, Tuncer İ. 2005. Poverty levels and food demand of the poor in Turkey. Agribusiness. 21(3):289–311. doi: 10.1002/agr.20049

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