The challenge of growth, employment and poverty in the South African economy since democracy: an exploratory review of selected issues

Figures & data

Selected economic indicators for South Africa, 1995–2002

	Percentage change in:
Year	GDP	Gross fixed capital formation	Exports of Goods and Services	Imports of goods and Services	Disposable household income	Core inflation	Deficit‐to‐GDP ratio	Savings‐to‐GDP ratio
1995	3,1	10,7	10,3	16,8	4,8	8,7	−4,6	16,5
1996	4,3	9,0	9,2	8,7	4,6	7,4	−5,1	16,1
1997	2,6	5,7	5,6	5,4	3,0	8,6	−5,0	15,1
1998	0,8	4,6	2,5	1,5	0,5	6,9	−3,7	14,8
1999	2,0	−8,1	1,4	−7,4	1,1	5,2	−2,8	15,4
2000	3,5	0,8	8,4	7,1	3,4	5,4	−2,2	15,2
2001	2,8	3,2	2,5	0,3	2,9	5,7	−2,0	14,8
2002	3,0	6,5	−1,4	3,1	3,4	10,1	−1,4	16,1
Notes: 1. The GDP growth rate is the percentage change in real GDP at market prices. 2. Core inflation is at a 2000 base year, and refers to metropolitan households only. Source: SARB (2003).

Measures of poverty and inequality by race and gender of household head and international estimates

Household head	Headcount index	Poverty gap ratio (%)	Gini	Coefficient of Variation
African	38,22	14,2	0,53	1,80
	(0,021)	(0,142)
Coloured	21,51	6,6	0,48	1,13
	(0,022)	(0,066)
Asian	3,73	0,9	0,47	1,23
	(0,006)	(0,009)
White	3,03	0,8	0,46	1,25
	(0,030)	(0,008)
Male	26,39	9,2	0,60	1,81
	(0,029)	(0,011)
Female	43,52	17,0	0,53	1,81
	(0,027)	(0,012)
Total	32,02	11,8	0,60	1,91
	(0,029)	(0,011)
International estimates
Brazil	17,4 (1990)		0,607 (1998)
Malaysia	15,5 (1989)		0,492 (1997)
Venezuela	31,3 (1989)		0,495 (1998)
Poland	23,8 (1993)		0,414 (1998)
Thailand	13,1 (1992)		0,316 (1998)
Notes: 1. Standard errors are in parenthesis, and are corrected for according to frequency weights, the primary sampling unit and sampling stratification. 2. Figures in parenthesis for international estimates refer to the year the survey was undertaken to derive estimates. 3. The headcount measures for the international estimates refer to the share of the population below the national poverty line of the individual country. Sources: WEFA Southern Africa (1999).

Investment as a percentage of GDP, selected countries

Region	1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000
South Africa	11,83	11,89	12,03	13,97	15,55	18,22	16,90	16,00	15,52	14,60	15,03
Brazil	20,17	19,77	18,93	20,85	22,15	22,29	20,67	21,50	21,20	20,40	20,50
Chile	25,11	22,55	23,81	26,50	24,10	25,79	26,88	27,23	26,64	21,42	23,44
Malaysia	32,22	35,63	35,98	38,30	39,74	43,15	42,11	42,77	26,83	22,14	25,58
Thailand	41,35	42,84	39,96	39,94	40,18	41,85	41,58	33,33	20,32	19,94	22,67
Source: World Bank (2002).

Productivity growth in South Africa, 1970–2001

Note: Series is a productivity index, where 1995 = 100.

Relative contribution of factors to growth (% contribution)

Source	Period	Capital	Labour	TFP
Goldman Sachs (2003)	1970s	2,6	1,6	−1,0
	1980s	1,3	1,0	0,0
	1990s	0,5	−0,9	1,8
Fedderke (2001)	1970s	2,54	1,77	−0,49
	1980s	1,24	0,62	0,34
	1990s	0,44	−0,58	1,07

A snapshot of key labour market trends: 1995–2002

Category	1995	2002	Change	% change	Target growth rate	Employment absorption Rate
Employment	9 557 185	11 157 818	1 600 633	16,75
Unemployment			3 405 014	87,67
(expanded definition)	3 883 819	7 288 833
Labour force	13 441 004	18 446 651	5 005 647	37,24	52,38	31,98
Official definition estimates
Employment	9 557 185	11 157 818	1 600 633	16,75
Unemployment				123,69
(strict definition)	1 909 468	4 271 302	2 361 834
Labour force	11 466 653	15 429 120	3 962 467	34,56	41,46	40,39
Notes: 1. The official definition estimates are based on the assumption of the strict definition of unemployment, and hence presume a labour market that excludes the discouraged work‐seeker. 2. The 1995 data have been reweighted with the 1996 Census weights to ensure comparability across the two time periods. Sources: StatsSA (1996; 2003).

Wage elasticities for African, coloured and Asian employees in the formal sector

Sector	Long‐term	Short‐term
Beverages	−0,184	−0,095
Tobacco	−0,057	−0,018
Textiles	−0,984	−0,346
Wearing apparel	−2,508	−0,709
Wood products	−0,196	−0,603
Furniture	−0,364	−0,139
Chemicals	−1,166	−0,344
Rubber and plastic	−0,243	−0,153
Non‐metal minerals	−2,929	−0,451
Basic metals	−0,758	−0,166
Fabricated metals	−0,466	−0,175
Non‐electric machinery	−0,632	−0,408
Transport equipment	−0,440	−0,201
Mining	−0,146	−0,118
Construction	−0,554	−0,360
Services	−0,948	−0,147
Weighted mean	−0,709	−0,156
Source:Fallon & Lucas (1998).

Wage elasticities by main sector

Sector	1990–3	1994–8
Mining and quarrying	−0,19	−0,96*
Manufacturing	−0,06	−0,45*
Construction	−0,49*	−0,63*
Utilities	−0,02	−0,03
Commerce, catering and accommodation	−0,13	0,50*
Transport and communication	−0,10	−0,22
Financial services	0,20*	−0,01
Community, social and personal services	0,05	−0,50*
Private sector total	−0,35**	−0,53**
Notes: *Statistically significant at the 5 per cent level; **statistically significant at the 1 per cent level. Source: Fields et al. (1999).

Impact of bargaining council agreements on employment

Category	No. of firms	Percentage
Increases	13	4,04
Declines	67	20,81
No effect	197	61,18
Not applicable	45	13,98
Total	322	100
Source: World Bank (1999).

Tariff phase‐down under the WTO commitments

New ISIC	Description	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004
3	Textiles	30,1	33,8	31,8	24,9	23,4	21,9	20,3	18,7	17,3	17,3	17,3
4	Clothing, excluding footwear	73,7	73,6	68,2	54,6	50,5	46,4	42,4	37,7	33,2	33,2	33,2
5	Leather and leather products	14,9	14,8	14,1	16,5	15,7	14,8	14,8	14,8	14,8	14,8	14,8
6	Footwear	37,5	41,6	39,1	36,8	34,2	29,1	29,1	29,1	29,1	29,1	29,1
7	Wood and wood products	13,9	3,6	3,4	3,5	3,3	3,1	3,1	3,1	3,1	3,1	3,1
8	Paper and paper products	9,6	9,3	9,1	8,8	8,7	8,5	7,9	7,3	6,8	6,2	5,6
9	Printing and publishing	8,1	1,3	1,2	1,1	1,0	1,0	1,0	1,0	1,0	1,0	1,0
10	Petroleum and petroleum products	1,6	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
11	Industrial chemicals	9,3	7,5	7,5	1,7	1,7	1,6	1,6	1,6	1,6	1,6	1,6
12	Other chemical products	9,0	3,8	3,7	2,7	2,6	2,5	2,5	2,5	2,5	2,5	2,5
13	Rubber products	30,5	14,5	14,1	15,8	15,4	14,9	14,6	14,4	14,0	14,0	14,0
14	Plastic products	19,8	14,7	13,7	13,2	12,6	12,0	12,0	12,0	12,0	12,0	12,0
15	Glass and glass products	11,8	9,5	9,0	8,3	7,9	7,6	7,6	7,6	7,6	7,6	7,6
16	Non‐metallic mineral products	10,6	8,7	8,1	8,4	8,0	7,7	7,7	7,7	7,7	7,7	7,7
17	Basic iron and steel products	7,6	4,4	4,2	4,2	4,1	3,9	3,9	3,9	3,9	3,9	3,9
18	Non‐ferrous metal products	2,3	2,3	2,3	2,3	2,2	2,0	2,0	2,0	1,9	1,7	1,7
19	Metal products, excluding machinery	13,1	8,2	7,8	7,8	7,6	7,4	7,4	7,4	7,4	7,4	7,4
20	Non‐electrical machinery	6,5	1,4	1,3	1,4	1,3	1,3	1,3	1,3	1,3	1,3	1,3
21	Electrical machinery	11,0	6,1	6,0	5,8	5,8	5,7	5,7	5,7	5,7	5,7	5,7
22	Radio, television and communication apparatus	12,1	5,1	3,7	2,4	2,3	2,3	2,3	2,3	2,3	2,3	2,3
23	Professional equipment, etc.	7,2	0,2	0,2	0,3	0,3	0,3	0,3	0,3	0,3	0,3	0,3
24	Motor vehicles, parts and accessories	55,4	33,5	31,7	29,3	27,9	26,1	24,8	23,2	22,1	22,1	22,1
25	Other transport equipment	1,4	0,4	0,4	0,3	0,3	0,2	0,2	0,2	0,2	0,2	0,2
26	Furniture	28,1	21,4	20,8	20,2	19,6	18,9	18,9	18,9	18,9	18,9	18,9
27	Other manufacturing	2,9	1,0	1,0	5,2	5,1	5,0	4,9	4,9	4,9	4,9	4,9
82	Mining	2,7	0,6	0,6	0,5	0,4	0,4	0,4	0,4	0,4	0,4	0,4
Total		11,7	7,2	6,8	6,1	5,8	5,5	5,3	5,1	4,9	4,9	4,9
Source: IDC (1993).

Tariff structure for 1997, 2000 and 2001, with imports for 2000

Sector Year	Number of lines 2000	Imports (5) 2000	Imports 2000	Weighted average 2000	Average 1997	Average 2000	Average 2001	Standard deviation 1997	Standard deviation 2000	Standard deviation 2001
Agriculture	295	1,459	0,8%	1,4%	5,6%	4,2%	4,0%	8,9%	7,5%	7,2%
Mining	107	25,559	14,5%	0,0%	1,4%	1,2%	1,4%	3,4%	3,2%	3,7%
Manufacturing	5,479	149,539	84,7%	8,6%	15,6%	6,7%	6,7%	18,0%	9,6%	9,4%
Total	5,883	176,564	100,0%	7,3%	15,1%	6,5%	6,5%	17,8%	9,4%	9,3%
Notes: Unless otherwise stated, averages are unweighted. The second column reports imports in R million at current prices, while the third column reflects percentages of total imports across the reported sectors. Sources: Data obtained from the Department of Trade and Industry, the Department of Customs and Excise and Trade and Industrial Policy Strategies (TIPS).

Firm expenditure on crime prevention, 1998 rand values

	Security guards	Security devices	Total security	Median rand/employee
Microfirms (1–5 employees)	3 500	3 000	6 500	1 200
Small firms (6–20 employees)	6 000	5 000	11 000	600
Medium firms (21–49 employees)	16 000	8 000	24 000	450
Average	8 500	5 333	13 833	750
Source: World Bank (1999).