A three‐gap and macrodecomposition analysis for South Africa, 1993–2002

Figures & data

Growth rates for nominal and real GDP

Figure 2

South Africa's trade ratio from 1981–2002

Data sources

Symbol	Description	Source
X	Aggregate supply	Gross national disposable income at market prices (RB6018J) + imports of goods and services (RB6014J)
Yp	Private incomes	Final consumption expenditure by households (RB6007J) – residual item (RB60011J)+private savings [=gross capital formation (RB6180) – government savings
		(RB6202J)+balance on current account (RB6260)]
T	Net taxes	Government disposable income (RB6693J), which is government current income (RB6254J) – interest on public debt (RB6255J) – subsidies (RB6005J) – current transfers to households (RB6257J) – transfers to the rest of the world (RB6258J)
Cp	Private consumption	Final consumption expenditure by households (RB6007J) – residual item (RB60011J)
Ip	Private investment	Gross capital formation by public corporations (RB6182J) + gross capital formation by private business enterprises (RB6183J)
G	Government spending	Final consumption expenditure by general government (RB6008J)+gross capital formation by general government (RB6181J)
E	Exports	Exports of goods and services (RB6013J)
M	Imports	Imports of goods and services (RB6014J)

The three gaps in South Africa (% of GNDI)

	Private savings	Private investment	Private gap	Government Savings	Government investment	Public gap	Domestic gap	Forex earnings	Forex use	Foreign Gap
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)	(7)	(8)	(9)	(10)
1990	22,4	14,0	8,4	−2,4	4,0	−6,4	2,0	26,7	24,7	2,0
1991	22,3	13,7	8,6	−3,2	3,5	−6,7	1,9	24,0	22,1	1,9
1992	24,2	12,2	12,0	−7,5	2,9	−10,4	1,5	22,7	21,2	1,5
1993	23,8	13,1	10,6	−6,9	2,6	−9,4	1,2	22,7	21,5	1,2
1994	23,3	14,8	8,5	−6,0	2,4	−8,4	0,1	23,5	23,4	0,1
1995	21,2	16,0	5,3	−4,3	2,4	−6,8	−1,5	24,4	25,9	−1,5
1996	21,8	15,2	6,5	−5,2	2,7	−7,9	−1,4	26,1	27,4	−1,4
1997	20,2	14,3	5,9	−4,7	2,8	−7,5	−1,6	26,2	27,8	−1,6
1998	18,1	14,4	3,7	−2,9	2,7	−5,5	−1,8	27,6	29,3	−1,8
1999	17,8	13,8	4,0	−1,9	2,6	−4,5	−0,5	27,8	28,3	−0,5
2000	17,7	13,7	3,9	−2,0	2,4	−4,4	−0,4	31,4	31,9	−0,4
2001	15,6	13,4	2,2	−0,2	2,3	−2,5	−0,3	34,0	34,3	−0,3
2002	16,8	14,1	2,7	−0,2	2,2	−2,4	0,3	37,0	36,6	0,3
Source: SARB (n.d.) and own calculations.

Figure 4

Overall decomposition of changes in aggregate demand (R billion, constant 1995 prices)

	X	J	k	ΔJ	Δk	ΔX	kΔJ	JΔk	ΔJΔk	Ratio*
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)	(7)	(8)	(9)	(10)
1993	594	296	2,005	6	−0,005	10	11	−1	0	0,12
1994	625	318	1,967	22	−0,038	32	44	−11	−1	0,26
1995	656	330	1,991	12	0,024	31	23	8	0	0,34
1996	689	354	1,947	24	−0,044	33	48	−14	−1	0,30
1997	709	360	1,967	7	0,020	20	13	7	0	0,56
1998	719	368	1,953	8	−0,015	11	16	−5	0	0,33
1999	725	371	1,952	2	−0,001	4	5	0	0	0,07
2000	766	404	1,895	33	−0,057	42	65	−21	−2	0,32
2001	791	428	1,848	24	−0,047	25	45	−19	−1	0,42
2002	843	469	1,798	41	−0,050	52	75	−21	−2	0,28
Note: *Ratio of the multiplier effect and the injection effect, i.e. column 8 divided by column 7. Source: SARB (n.d.) and own calculations.

Stances of the three sectors

	Output	Private stance	Public stance			Foreign stance
	R bn 1995	R bn 1995	%	R bn 1995	%	R bn 1995	%
1993	594	328	55,3	1002	168,8	626	105,4
1994	625	397	63,6	989	158,2	627	100,3
1995	656	493	75,2	964	146,9	619	94,2
1996	689	482	69,9	1066	154,8	655	95,1
1997	709	501	70,7	1061	149,7	669	94,4
1998	719	571	79,4	958	133,1	676	93,9
1999	724	562	77,7	911	125,8	711	98,2
2000	766	595	77,7	958	125,1	756	98,7
2001	791	681	86,1	891	112,7	784	99,1
2002	843	706	83,8	946	112,2	850	100,8
1993–7	655	437	66,8	1016	155,2	637	97,3
1998–2002	769	622	80,9	930	121,0	756	98,4
Note: % shows percentage of output. Source: SARB (n.d.) and own calculations.

Figure 5

Figure 6

Davies–Rattsø decomposition

		1993–1997	1998–2002
1.	Injection effects	4,4%	5,5%
	• Private	1,4%	0,4%
	• Public	0,7%	0,6%
	• Foreign	2,3%	4,4%
2.	Leakage effects	−0,34%	−1,67%
	• Private	1,7%	1,4%
	• Public	−0,4%	−1,1%
	• Foreign	−1,7%	−2,0%
3.	Interaction	−0,1%	−0,2%
	Total	4,0%	3,5%
4.	Combined effects
	• Private	3,2%	1,8%
	• Public	0,3%	−0,5%
	• Foreign	0,6%	2,4%
Note: Figures show the average annual percentages of total output measured in constant 1995 prices. Source: Own calculations.

Figure 7