The extent of anti-export bias in the South African economy during the 1990s

Figures & data

Figure 1: Classification of trade incentives

Table 1:  Sectors reflected in Figures 2 and 3

1	Agriculture, forestry and fishing	17	Other chemical & man-made fibres
2	Coal mining	18	Rubber
3	Gold and uranium ore mining	19	Plastic products
4	Other mining	20	Glass and glass products
5	Food	21	Non-metallic minerals
6	Beverages	22	Basic iron and steel
7	Tobacco	23	Basic non-ferrous metals
8	Textiles	24	Metal products excl. machinery
9	Wearing apparel	25	Machinery & equipment
10	Leather	26	Electrical machinery
11	Footwear	27	TV radio and equipment
12	Wood and wood products	28	Professional and scientific equipment
13	Paper and paper products	29	Motor vehicles parts
14	Printing, publishing and recording	30	Other transport
15	Coke and refined petroleum	31	Furniture
16	Basic chemicals	32	Other industries

Figure 2: Trade regime bias (1990–94). Source: Author's calculations with data from the Department of Trade and Industry

Figure 3: Trade regime bias (1965–97). Source: Author's calculations with data from the Department of Trade and Industry

Table 2:  Trade regime effects on output and trade policy

Trade regime	Trade incentives effect		Output effects
	Import substitution	Export promotion	Import substitution	Export production
IS	+ve	−ve	+ve	−ve
PEP	+ve	+ve	+ve	+ve
EP	−ve	+ve	−ve	+ve
DIP	−ve	−ve	−ve	−ve
Free trade
Source: Author's deductions.

Table 3:  Trade regime bias, production bias and sources of economic growth

	Sector [Standard industrial classification]	1990–1994 Sources of growth				1995–1997 Sources of growth				1995–2001 Sources of growth
		TRB^1	DD	EE	IS	TRB^1	DD	EE	IS	DD	EE	IS
[1]	[2]	[3]	[4]	[5]	[6]	[7]	[8]	[9]	[10]	[11]	[12]	[13]
1	Agriculture, forestry and fishing		1.78	0.23	−1.01	IS	1.35	−0.10	−0.25	0.67	0.54	−0.21
2	Coal mining		0.55	0.46	−0.01		0.52	0.52	−0.04	−0.37	1.48	−0.11
3	Gold and uranium ore mining		0.00	1.00	0.00		0.00	1.00	0.00	0.00	1.00	0.00
4	Other mining	DIP	−0.05	0.68	0.37	DIP	0.53	0.19	0.29	0.26	0.63	0.11
5	Food	PEP	0.98	0.06	−0.04	PEP	0.98	0.13	−0.11	0.86	0.18	−0.04
6	Beverages		0.56	0.53	−0.09		0.80	0.29	−0.09	1.11	−0.04	−0.07
7	Tobacco	IS	0.89	0.11	0.00	IS	0.55	0.48	−0.03	0.61	0.44	−0.04
8	Textiles	IS	0.99	0.07	−0.07	IS	0.67	0.44	−0.11	0.98	0.06	−0.03
9	Wearing apparel		0.79	0.30	−0.08	IS	0.77	−0.05	0.28	0.43	0.24	0.33
10	Leather and leather products	PEP	0.62	0.73	−0.35	PEP	0.57	0.56	−0.13	0.86	0.20	−0.06
11	Footwear	PEP	0.76	−0.12	0.36	IS	0.87	−0.12	0.25	0.17	−0.06	0.88
12	Wood and wood products		0.92	0.16	−0.08		0.92	0.08	0.00	1.39	−0.35	−0.05
13	Paper and paper products		0.97	0.14	−0.11		−1.42	2.46	−0.04	−0.25	1.27	−0.02
14	Printing, publishing and recorded media	PEP	0.98	0.02	0.00	IS	1.12	0.03	−0.15	1.10	0.14	−0.24
15	Coke and refined petroleum products		0.88	0.09	0.03		0.74	0.43	−0.16	−0.24	1.00	0.24
16	Basic chemicals		1.06	−0.24	0.18		0.48	0.52	0.00	0.59	0.41	0.00
17	Other chemicals and man-made fibres		0.99	0.10	−0.09		0.95	0.24	−0.18	1.01	0.38	−0.39
18	Rubber products	PEP	1.01	−0.03	0.03	PEP	0.85	0.85	−0.70	0.65	1.21	−0.86
19	Plastic products	PEP	0.98	0.05	−0.03	IS	0.96	0.17	−0.13	1.19	0.42	−0.61
20	Glass and glass products	PEP	0.99	0.10	−0.09	IS	0.05	−0.87	1.82	0.67	−0.59	0.93
21	Non-metallic minerals		0.94	0.21	−0.16		1.00	0.10	−0.10	1.14	0.50	−0.64
22	Basic iron and steel	PEP	0.37	0.63	0.00	PEP	0.43	0.66	−0.09	0.63	0.40	−0.02
23	Basic non-ferrous metals	IS	1.63	0.07	−0.70		0.64	0.39	−0.04	−0.12	1.41	−0.29
24	Metal products excluding machinery	PEP	0.90	0.12	−0.02		0.82	0.22	−0.04	−0.01	0.41	0.60
25	Machinery and equipment		1.65	0.52	−1.17		0.80	0.67	−0.48	−0.14	−0.65	1.79
26	Electrical machinery and apparatus		1.01	0.16	−0.17	IS	0.25	0.37	0.38	0.23	−0.12	0.89
27	Television, radio and communication equipment	PEP	4.85	0.64	−4.49		−0.53	−0.60	2.14	0.52	0.91	−0.43
28	Professional and scientific equipment	IS	0.76	0.38	−0.14	PEP	1.16	1.67	−1.83	0.62	0.94	−0.57
29	Motor vehicles, parts and accessories		0.55	0.29	0.16	IS	−0.02	0.85	0.17	0.35	−0.26	0.91
30	Other transport equipment		1.82	0.96	−1.77		−0.82	0.78	1.04	−4.85	5.30	0.56
31	Furniture	PEP	1.03	−0.69	0.67		0.39	0.70	−0.09	−0.04	1.36	−0.32
32	Other manufacturing		1.59	2.12	−2.71		0.44	0.55	0.01	0.96	1.58	−1.54
^1Trade regime bias. No entry against any sector in this column implies that there is no bias in the trade regime (i.e. free trade stance).
Source: Own calculations with data from TIPS.

Anti‐export bias in the South African economy

	SIC^1	Industry	1993	1999
1	1100	Agriculture, forestry and fishing	1.08	1.28
2	2100	Mining	1.03	1.03
3	3111	Slaughtering preparing & preserving meat	20.58	30
4	3112	Diary products	1.05	8.46
5	3113	Canning & preserving of fruit & vegetables	1.04	2.29
6	3114	Canning preserving & processing of fish	1.03	0.87
7	3115	Vegetable & animal oils & fats	2.08	1.15
8	3116	Grain mill products	0.98	0.81
9	3117	Bakery products	1.51	7.15
10	3118	Sugar factories & refineries	1.12	30
11	3119	Cocoa, chocolate & sugar confectionery	0.98	1.30
12	3121	Other food products	3.38	1.24
13	3122	Prepared animal feeds	0.48	5.22
14	3131	Distilleries & wineries	0.86	8.70
15	3133	Malt liquors & malt	0.81	0.94
16	3134	Soft drinks & carbonated waters industries	1.42	1.04
17	3140	Tobacco products	7.89	30
18	3211	Spinning, wool weaving & finishing of fabrics	3.76	2.60
19	3212	Made-up textile goods, excl. wearing apparel	1.74	3.39
20	3213	Knitting mills	6.27	1.98
21	3214	Carpets & rugs mats & matting	1.30	3.56
22	3215	Cordage, rope & twine industries	0.59	4.60
23	3219	Textiles, not elsewhere classified	0.35	1.46
24	3220	Wearing apparel excl. footwear	7.91	7.07
25	3233	Leather products & leather substitutes	1.33	3.36
26	3240	Footwear	1.78	2.26
27	3310	Wood & wood products excl. furniture	1.12	1.06
28	3320	Furniture	1.22	2.39
29	3411	Pulp, paper & paperboard	1.00	1.18
30	3412	Paper containers	1.09	1.66
31	3419	Other pulp, paper & paperboard	1.09	1.59
32	3420	Printing & publishing	0.79	0.97
33	3511	Industrial chemicals	0.93	1.02
34	3512	fertilisers & pesticides	0.77	1.00
35	3513	Synthetic resins & plastic materials	1.26	1.16
36	3521	Paints vanishes & lacquers	2.53	1.23
37	3522	Medical & pharmaceutical preparations	0.85	0.96
38	3523	Soap, cosmetics & toilet preparations	2.13	2.52
39	3529	Other chemical products	1.13	1.02
40	353/4	Other basic chemicals petroleum & coal	1.87	1.82
41	3551	Tyres & tubes	1.84	1.75
42	3559	Other rubber products	1.34	1.28
43	3560	Other plastic products	1.18	1.84
44	3610	Pottery, china & earthenware	1.21	1.77
45	3620	Glass & glass products	1.18	1.19
46	3691	Bricks, tiles, refractories, etc.	1.20	1.39
47	3692	Cement	0.86	0.97
48	3699	Other non-metallic mineral products	1.41	1.23
49	3710	Iron & steel basic industries	1.12	1.08
50	3720	Non-ferrous metal basic industries	1.26	1.07
51	3811	Cutlery, hand tools & general hardware	1.03	1.63
52	3312	Furniture & fixtures primarily of metal	1.11	1.89
53	3813	Structural metal products	0.85	1.22
54	3819	Other fabricated metals excl. machinery	1.11	1.29
55	3821	Engines & turbines	0.74	1.07
56	3822	Agriculture machinery & equipment	0.57	0.95
57	3823	Metal & woodworking machinery	0.68	0.99
58	3824	Special industrial machinery & equipment	0.67	0.97
59	3825	Office computing & accounting machinery	0.54	0.96
60	3829	Other machinery & equipment excl. electrical	0.83	1.01
61	3831	Electrical industrial machinery	0.94	1.09
62	3832	Radio, television & communication equipment	0.95	1.10
63	3833	Electrical appliances & housewares	1.08	2.49
64	3839	Other electrical apparatus & supplies	0.99	1.05
65	3843/0	Motor vehicles	3.66	4.68
66	3852	Railway equipment	0.66	0.96
67	3851/4	Other transport	0.92	1.06
68	3901	Jewellery and related articles	0.48	0.97
69	386,390	Other manufacturing industries	1.05	0.92
70	41	Services	0.95	0.97
		Total Industry	1.19	1.32
		Total Manufacturing	1.27	1.44
Notes: ^1Standard industrial classification.
Source: IDC, 1996a: The effective protection rate and anti-export bias, IDC, Sandton.

Anti-export bias in the manufacturing sector based on value of sales

SIC^1	Sector description	Anti-export bias		Value of sales (Rm)
		1993	1999	1990	1999
3111	Slaughtering, processing and preserving of meat	X	X	2 653.49	5 693.37
3114	Processing & preserving of fish & fish products	X		794.37	1 533.32
3114	Processing & preserving of fruit & vegetables	X		2 179.75	4 489.28
3115	Vegetable & animal oils & fats	X	X	1 968.84	5 566.10
3112	Dairy products	X	X	3 226.55	7 164.65
3116	Grain mill products			5 003.86	9 847.01
3122	Prepared animal feeds		X	2 379.89	5 024.87
3117	Bakery products	X	X	2 598.22	4 156.73
3118	Sugar refining	X	X	2 124.42	4 473.10
3119	Cocoa, chocolate & sugar confectionery		X	1 204.45	2 910.92
3121	Other food products	X	X	2 580.46	6 419.42
3131	Distilling industries		X	2 698.89	5 545.56
3133	Beer, malt liquors & malt			4 235.16	8 967.19
3134	Soft drinks & mineral waters	X	X	2 266.46	6 092.40
3211	Spinning & weaving of textiles	X	X	3 906.72	6 304.57
3212	Made-up textile articles excl. apparel	X	X	991.78	1659.44
3214	Carpets, rugs and matting	X	X	458.95	701.13
3219	Other textiles		X	422.93	1 105.15
3213	Knitted & crocheted fabrics & articles	X	X	1 195.06	1 858.59
3220	Wearing apparel excl. fur apparel	X	X	4 848.05	9 135.95
3233	Tanning and dressing of leather	X	X	871.35	2 577.53
3240	Footwear manufacturing	X	X	1 806.70	2 379.13
3310	Sawmilling and planing of wood	X	X	1 362.29	2 380.67
3319	Wood and wood products	X	X	2 091.36	6 005.76
3411	Pulp, paper and paperboard	X	X	4 360.68	10 019.29
3412	Corrugated paper & paperboard	X	X	2 970.35	6 814.00
3419	Other articles of paper & paperboard	X	X	1 184.54	3 567.30
3420	Publishing			1 904.56	4 471.08
3420	Printing and related services			3 201.96	7 193.86
3540	Coke oven products	X	X	455.98	900.15
3540	Petroleum refineries & synthesisers	X	X	9 938.68	20 099.54
3511	Basic chemicals		X	3 233.44	6 881.96
3512	Fertilisers and nitrogen compounds		X	1 790.11	5 932.42
3513	Plastics in primary form	X	X	3 218.18	7 058.53
3511	Pesticides and other agro-chemical products		X	712.14	1 391.37
3521	Paints, varnishes, printing ink and mastics	X	X	1 252.86	3 683.35
3522	Pharmaceuticals, medicinal chemicals, etc.			2 795.58	5 781.05
3523	Soap, detergents & polishing, perfumes, etc.	X	X	2 519.25	7 605.54
3529	Other chemical products	X	X	3 563.37	7 028.73
3551	Tyres & tubes of rubber	X	X	1 743.79	3 194.88
3559	Other rubber products	X	X	875.16	972.35
3220	Plastic products	X	X	4 327.88	9 723.28
3620	Glass and glass products	X	X	1 612.06	2 140.82
3610	Ceramic Non-structural non-refractory	X	X	225.51	269.80
3691	Ceramic products (refractory)	X	X	1 465.89	2 431.05
3692	Cement, lime and plaster			1 224.43	2 313.10
3699	Concrete, cement or plaster articles	X	X	2 604.93	4 243.19
3710	Basic iron and steel	X	X	13 362.06	26 056.85
3720	Basic precious and non-ferrous metals	X	X	4 447.31	13 107.16
3813	Structural metal products and steam generators		X	4 581.48	8 375.92
3819	Forging, pressing, stamping, etc. of metal	X	X	1 254.54	2 181.45
3811	Cutlery, hand tools & general hardware	X	X	974.88	1 839.26
3829	Other fabricated metal products		X	5 962.54	11 054.27
3829	General purpose machinery and computing machinery		X	5 206.56	8 715.99
3829	Special purpose machinery		X	5 268.12	7 840.00
3829	Household appliances		X	1 204.89	1 926.20
3831	Electric motors, generators & transformers		X	654.82	1 736.56
3839	Electricity distribution & controlling apparatus		X	629.52	2 129.98
3839	Insulated wire & cable manufacturing		X	1 510.57	2 683.71
3839	Accumulators, primary cells & primary batteries		X	582.81	1 004.13
3839	Electric lamps & lighting equipment		X	490.84	771.88
3831	Other electrical equipment		X	1 951.93	3 509.46
3832	Radio, television and communication		X	2 570.88	4 441.40
3829	Medical equipment, instruments		X	602.03	1 299.95
3840	Motor vehicles	X	X	10 732.67	30 465.94
3840	Bodies for motor vehicles, trailers & semi-trailers	X	X	1 058.11	1 529.08
3840	Motor vehicle parts and accessories	X	X	3 705.99	10 724.81
3840	Other transport equipment	X	X	1 539.35	2 789.06
3320	Furniture manufacturing	X	X	3 027.74	6 356.28
3901	Jewellery and related articles			1 558.16	2 449.12
3909	Other manufacturing industries	X		3 988.94	9 991.86
	Total manufacturing sales			187 918.07	398 688.75
	% of manuf. sales subject to anti-export bias			0.66	0.86
Notes: ^1Standard industrial classification.
Source: IDC 1996a.

Total output subject to anti-export bias (based on 2 sectors classification)

Sector description	Output
	1990	1999
1. Agriculture, forestry and fishing (SIC 1100)	19 818.8	49 431
2. Mining (SIC 2100)	42 976.8	86 972
3. Services (SIC 4100)	281 802	843 123
4. Manufacturing^1(SIC 3000)	135 909	388 055
5. Total output	550 521	1 430 753.5
Per cent of total output subject to AEB	0.87	0.96
Notes: ^166 per cent (86 per cent) of the output of the manufacturing sector is assumed to be produced under an anti-export bias trade regime. See Appendix 2 for calculations.
^2Given by [(1 + 2 + 3 + 4)/5].
Source: IDC, TIPS.

Total output subject to anti-export bias (based on 3 sectors classification)

1. Sectors with anti-export bias (1990-94) Rm	1990
1.1 Other mining	15 592.4
1.2 Textiles	6 345.5
1.3 Tobacco	1 900.6
1.4 Basic non-ferrous metals	4 786.7
1.5 Professional and scientific equipment [374–376]	668.4
2. Manufacturing output	205 923.1
3. Total output (overall economy)	550 521.3
4. Per cent of total output with AEB^1	0.05
5. Per cent of manf output with AEB^2	0.07
6. Sectors with anti-export bias (1995–97) Rm	1999
6.1 Agriculture, forestry and fishing	49 431
6.2 Other mining	40 865.1
6.3 Tobacco	4 943.3
6.4 Textiles	11 076.3
6.5 Wearing apparel	12 324.5
6.6 Footwear	2 708.8
6.7 Paper and paper products	22 636.4
6.8 Printing, publishing and recorded media	13 265.5
6.9 Plastic products	11 072.8
6.10 Glass and glass products	2 415.6
6.11 Electrical machinery and apparatus	13 417.3
6.12 Motor vehicles, parts and accessories	48 619.6
7. Manufacturing output	451 226.9
8. Total output (overall economy)	1 121 179
9. Per cent of total output with AEB^3	0.21
10. Per cent of manuf. output with AEB^4	0.32
Notes: ^1Given by [(1.1 + 1.2 + 1.3 + 1.4 + 1.5)/3].
^2Given by [(1.2 + 1.3 + 1.4 + 1.5)/2].
^3Given by [(6.1 + 6.2 + 6.3 + 6.4 + 6.5 + 6.6 + 6.7 + 6.8 + 6.9 + 6.10 + 6.11)/8].
^4Given by [(6.3 + 6.4 + 6.5 + 6.6 + 6.7 + 6.8 + 6.9 + 6.10 + 6.11)/7].