Measuring the growth potential of towns in the Western Cape, South Africa

Figures & data

Figure 1: Western Cape towns

Table 1: Summary of indicators grouping

Table 2: Indicators of natural resources potential

Natural resources	No.	Derivation methods and data sources
Availability of developable land	1	Obtained from local survey by Urban Dynamics (2004) (in ha)
Availability of water	2	Mean annual precipitation (mm) of Quaternary catchments (DWAF polygon shapefile) assigned to town
	3	Mean annual runoff of Quaternary catchments (DWAF polygon shapefile) assigned to town (in million cubic metres)
	4	Groundwater potential (in million cubic metres) per annum assigned to town by intersection of towns with groundwater potential polygon shapefile obtained from DWAF
Agricultural potential	5	Weighted mean index computed per municipal area. Wheat potential (Dept Agriculture, Western Cape) and irrigated land (SA national land cover) combined on a five-point scale.
Tourism attractions (natural and cultural)	6	Mean weighted SA Terrain Index (SATI) per municipality derived from ENPAT (2001)
	7	Number of cultural and heritage sites per 100 km^2 per municipality derived from ENPAT (2001)
Environmental sensitivity	8	Weighted mean sensitivity index per municipality derived from ENPAT (2001)
Composite natural resources index		Sum of standardised z-scores on all eight variables
ENPAT, Environmental and Tourism Potential Atlas (Set of CDs obtained from the Department of Environmental Affairs and Tourism, Pretoria); DWAF, Department of Water Affairs and Forestry; Urban Dynamics was contracted to gather the required information in 2004 using a questionnaire survey. The data provided by the Dept of Agriculture (Western Cape) were supplied in digital format by e-mail. The SA National Land Cover data were obtained from a CD provided by the Institute for Soil Climate and Water, Pretoria.

Table 3: Indicators of human resources potential

Human resources	No.	Derivation methods and data sources
Size of labour force	1	Total size (number) of the labour force (2001 Census)
Quality of labour force	2	Labour force > 15 < 65 years (number) with education levels equal to or better than Grade 12 as percentage of total labour force (2001 Census)
	3	Number of white collar workers as percentage of economically active population (2001 Census)
Composite human resources index		Sum of standardised z-scores on all three variables
Human resources change
Change in size of labour force	4	Change in total size of the labour force (1991–2001 Censuses)
Change in quality of labour force	5	Percentage point change in labour force (Population > 15 < 65 years with education levels equal or better than Grade 12 as percentage of total labour force (1991–2001 Censuses)
	6	Percentage point change in white collar workers (1991–2001 Censuses)
Composite human resources change index		Sum of standardised z-scores on last three variables
1991 Census data obtained on CD from the Human Sciences Research Council (HSRC), Pretoria.

Table 4: Indicators of transport and communications

Transport and communications	No.	Derivation methods and data sources
Availability of transport infrastructure	1	National or main road through or close to town (PAWC)
	2	Airport or airfield close to town (PAWC)
	3	Port or commercial harbour in town (PAWC)
Accessibility to transport infrastructure	4	Inverse of distance to nearest national or main road (km)
	5	Inverse of distance to nearest commercial harbour (km)
	6	Inverse of distance to nearest scheduled airport (km)
Availability of communication infrastructure	7	Cell phone coverage (2003) (Urban Dynamics, 2004)
Composite transport and communications index		Sum of standardised z-scores on all seven variables
PAWC, Provincial Administration Western Cape, CD obtained from the Department of Development Planning, Provincial Administration of the Western Cape, Cape Town. Urban Dynamics was contracted to gather the required information in 2004 using a questionnaire survey.

Table 5: Indicators of institutional services

Institutional services	No.	Derivation methods
Municipal seat	1	Seat of local municipal council
Value of the property tax base	2	Rand value of property tax revenue
Municipal water usage	3	Percentage of infrastructure capacity used
Public institutions represented	4	Number of tertiary educational institutions
	5	Number of libraries
	6	Number of central and provincial government departments which have offices in town
	7	Number of post offices
	8	Number of magistrates courts
	9	Number of police stations
Composite institutional services index		Sum of standardised z-scores on all nine variables
Data obtained from local survey by Urban Dynamics (2004).

Table 6: Indicators of economic sectors

Economic sectors	No.	Derivation methods and data sources
Diversity of economic activities	1	Sum of squared proportions (expressed as percentages) of population in economic sectors. Index value of 100 indicates all activity is concentrated in one sector. Values < 100 indicate increasing diversity (2001 Census)
Strength of primary and secondary economic sectors	2	Concentration of workforce in primary sectors (agriculture, forestry and fisheries) are calculated as percentage of economically active population (2001 Census)
	3	Concentration of workforce in mining activities calculated as percentage of economically active population (2001 Census)
	4	Concentration of workforce in manufacturing is calculated as percentage economically active population (2001 Census)
Size of the economy	5	Gross geographical product per district (R million) (2000)
Composite economic sectors index		Sum of standardised z-scores on all five variables
Economic sectoral change
Change in diversity of economic activities	6	Change in diversity index (1991–2001 Censuses)
Change in strength of primary and secondary economic sectors	7	Percentage change of workforce in primary activities (1991–2001 Censuses)
	8	Percentage change of workforce in mining activities (1991–2001 Censuses)
	9	Percentage change of workforce in manufacturing (1991–2001 Censuses)
Change in size of the economy	10	Percentage change in gross geographical product per district (1991–2001 Censuses)
Composite economic sectors change index		Sum of standardised z-scores on last five variables

Table 7: Indicators of commercial services

Commercial services	No.	Derivation methods
Presence of commercial and financial establishments	1	Number of selected major national clothing chain stores
	2	Number of selected major national food chain stores
	3	Number of selected major national furniture/appliance chain stores
	4	Number of selected major national restaurant franchises
	5	Number of selected major national service stations
	6	Number of selected major national banks
	7	Number of tourism accommodation facilities
	8	Number of professional services (attorneys and dentists)
	9	Number of specialty shops (pharmacies only)
	10	Number of agricultural co-ops
Composite commercial services index		Sum of standardised z-scores on all ten variables
Data obtained from local survey by Urban Dynamics (2004).

Table 8: Indicators of market potential

Market access potential	No.	Derivation methods and data sources
Size of local population	1	Number of people per town (2001 Census)
Size of local personal income	2	Total rand value of personal income per town (2001 Census)
Household income potential index	3	Market potential index computed by applying population potential index method to total household income values rather than population numbers per district (2001 Census) and assigned to all towns in the district
Population density	4	Number of people in district per km^2 (2001 Census), assigned to all towns in the district
Access to primary metropolitan markets	5	Weighted distance to Cape Town (population of Cape Town divided by the distance from the town to Cape Town)
	6	Weighted distance to Port Elizabeth (population of Port Elizabeth divided by the distance from the town to Port Elizabeth)
	7	Weighted distance to Durban (population of Durban divided by the distance from the town to Durban)
	8	Weighted distance to Johannesburg (population of Johannesburg divided by the distance from the town to Johannesburg)
	9	Weighted distance to Pretoria (population of Pretoria divided by the distance from the town to Pretoria)
Composite market potential index		Sum of standardised z-scores on all nine variables

Table 9: Indicators of regional vitality

Regional vitality	No.	Derivation methods and data sources
Growth of the total district population	1	Percentage population growth of district between 1991 and 2001 assigned to all towns in the district (1991–2001 Censuses)
Growth of economically active district population	2	Percentage growth of economically active district population assigned to all towns in the district (1991–2001 Censuses)
Growth of the skilled district workforce	3	Percentage growth of skilled labour (with Grade 12) in district assigned to all towns in the district (1991–2001 Censuses)
Growth of industrial workforce in the district	4	Percentage growth of labour force in manufacturing in district assigned to all towns in the district (1991–2001 Censuses)
Growth of GGP in the district	5	Percentage annual growth of total district gross geographical product between 1990 and 2000 assigned to all towns in the district
Composite regional vitality index		Sum of standardised z-scores on all five variables

Figure 2: Developmental potential of Western Cape towns

Table 10: Summary of development potential categories

Quantitative development potential index
Std Dev	Category	Count	Percentage
< −1.0	Very low	15	11.4
− 1.0 → −0.01	Low	64	48.9
0 → 0.99	Medium	36	27.5
1.0 → 1.99	High	12	9.2
≥ 2.0	Very high	4	3.0

Table 11: Correlation matrix of development indices

Indices	Natural resources	Human resources	Human resource change	Transport and communications	Institutional services	Economic sectors	Economic sector change	Commercial services	Market potential	Regional vitality
Natural resources	1.00	0.15	− 0.07	0.08	0.20	0.39	− 0.14	0.25	0.58	− 0.22
Human resources	0.15	1.00	0.35	0.21	0.43	− 0.04	− 0.15	0.52	0.39	0.09
Human resource change	− 0.07	0.35	1.00	0.12	− 0.02	− 0.12	− 0.05	− 0.03	0.01	0.03
Transport and communications	0.08	0.21	0.12	1.00	0.21	0.12	0.08	0.19	0.15	0.05
Institutional services	0.20	0.43	− 0.02	0.21	1.00	0.25	0.01	0.93	0.61	− 0.15
Economic sectors	0.39	− 0.04	− 0.12	0.12	0.25	1.00	0.27	0.28	0.60	− 0.13
Economic sector change	− 0.14	− 0.15	− 0.05	0.08	0.01	0.27	1.00	0.02	− 0.05	0.42
Commercial services	0.25	0.52	− 0.03	0.19	0.93	0.28	0.02	1.00	0.68	− 0.08
Market potential	0.58	0.39	0.01	0.15	0.61	0.60	− 0.05	0.68	1.00	− 0.14
Regional vitality	− 0.22	0.09	0.03	0.05	− 0.15	− 0.13	0.42	− 0.08	− 0.14	1.00

Table 12: Principal factor analysis of development indices

Indices	Factor 1	Factor 2	Factor 3	Factor 4
Natural resources	0.754250	0.099597	− 0.293307	0.089847
Human resources	− 0.078908	0.597993	− 0.094355	0.607479
Human resource change	− 0.100653	− 0.088239	− 0.067704	0.837003
Transport and communications	0.219462	0.130486	0.212551	0.503177
Institutional services	0.167260	0.932097	− 0.018585	0.002566
Economic sectors	0.849544	0.122664	0.208204	− 0.102447
Economic sector change	0.143334	− 0.031920	0.878025	− 0.090561
Commercial services	0.197967	0.953820	0.010440	0.037339
Market potential	0.682728	0.589596	− 0.088734	0.119733
Regional vitality	− 0.254514	− 0.028068	0.748792	0.164496
Explained variance	1.973746	2.535381	1.527988	1.392356
Proportion of total	0.197375	0.253538	0.152799	0.139236

Table 13: Communalities of principal factor analysis

Indices	From 1 factor	From 2 factors	From 3 factors	From 4 factors	Multiple R^2
Natural resources	0.56889	0.57881	0.66484	0.67291	0.40779
Human resources	0.00623	0.36382	0.37272	0.74176	0.50470
Human resource change	0.01013	0.01792	0.02250	0.72307	0.21359
Transport and communications	0.04816	0.06519	0.11037	0.36356	0.09880
Institutional services	0.02798	0.89678	0.89713	0.89713	0.87400
Economic sectors	0.72172	0.73677	0.78012	0.79062	0.55618
Economic sector change	0.02054	0.02156	0.79249	0.80069	0.38419
Commercial services	0.03919	0.94896	0.94907	0.95047	0.89939
Market potential	0.46612	0.81374	0.82161	0.83595	0.75741
Regional vitality	0.06478	0.06557	0.62625	0.65331	0.32964