The value of Namibia's forest resources: Preliminary economic asset and flow accounts

Figures & data

Table 1: Some key criteria and assumptions applied in the forest accounts for Namibia, 2004

Measure	Units	Forest products
		Fuel wood	Poles	Saw timber	NTFPs^a
% stock physically usable	Per cent	90	15	1	–
Yield/physically usable stock	Per cent	7	7	6	–
% annual yield currently used	Per cent	6	12	0	–
% annual yield economically usable	Per cent	16	27	50	–
Yield (mean annual increment) by Region
Caprivi	m^3/ha/year	1.7310	0.2885	0.0821	–
Erongo	m^3/ha/year	0.0036	0.0006	–	–
Hardap	m^3/ha/year	0.0036	0.0006	–	–
Karas	m^3/ha/year	0.0014	0.0002	–	–
Kavango	m^3/ha/year	1.2960	0.2160	0.0199	–
Khomas	m^3/ha/year	0.0090	0.0015	–	–
Kunene	m^3/ha/year	0.0054	0.0009	–	–
Ohangwena	m^3/ha/year	1.4400	0.2400	0.0200	–
Omaheke	m^3/ha/year	0.0900	0.0150	–	–
Omusati	m^3/ha/year	0.1447	0.0241	–	–
Oshana	m^3/ha/year	0.0405	0.0068	–	–
Oshikoto	m^3/ha/year	0.6178	0.1030	–	–
Otjozondjupa	m^3/ha/year	0.2106	0.0351	–	–
Consumption per household	m^3/year	4.60	4.37	–	–
Price per m^3	N$(2004)	634	529	5753
NTFP value/fuel wood value	Per cent	–	–	–	64
Direct value added	Per cent/output	94	89	66	68
Total value added	Per cent/output	149%	149	114	149
Income multiplier	Factor	1.71	1.71	1.59	1.71
Resource rent	Per cent/output	84	73	41	68
^aNTFPs used for food, medicine, cosmetics, craft-making and thatching.

Table 2: Estimated forest standing volumes per hectare and aggregate, and physically suitable annual yields for fuel wood, poles and saw timber, 2004

Region	Forest biomass^a		Physically suitable annual yield^b
	Density	Volume	Fuel wood	Poles	Saw timber
	’000 m^3/ha	’000 m^3	’000 m^3/year	’000 m^3/year	’000 m^3/year
Caprivi	21.37	30 916.0	2504.2	417.4	118.8
Erongo	0.10	635.9	22.9	3.8	0.0
Hardap	0.10	1096.6	39.5	6.6	0.0
Karas	0.05	805.4	21.7	3.6	0.0
Kavango	18.00	87 269.4	6283.4	1047.2	48.2
Khomas	0.25	921.5	33.2	5.5	0.0
Kunene	0.20	2303.1	62.2	10.4	0.0
Ohangwena	20.00	21 388.0	1539.9	256.7	4.3
Omaheke	2.00	16 888.0	760.0	126.7	0.0
Omusati	3.22	8538.4	384.2	64.0	0.0
Oshana	0.90	781.4	35.2	5.9	0.0
Oshikoto	11.44	44 237.3	2388.8	398.1	0.0
Otjozondjupa	3.90	41 080.3	2218.3	369.7	0.0
Total		256 861.3	16 293.5	2715.6	171.3
^aTotal standing stock of woody resources.
^bPhysically suitable or usable yields from standing biomass, not necessarily economically exploitable.

Table 3: Estimated harvest volumes for fuel wood, poles and saw timber, 2004, and their economically usable potential annual yield after 30 years

Region	Current annual harvest			Projected annual harvest in 30 years time^a
	Fuel wood	Poles	Saw timber	Fuel wood	Poles	Saw timber
	’000 m^3/year	’000 m^3/year	’000 m^3/year	’000 m^3/year	’000 m^3/year	’000 m^3/year
Caprivi	65.8	5.5	0.0	220.0	18.5	59.4
Erongo	21.8	6.8	0.0	22.9	3.8	0.0
Hardap	34.8	0.3	0.0	39.5	1.0	0.0
Karas	22.9	4.1	0.0	21.7	3.6	0.0
Kavango	141.4	52.5	0.0	472.9	175.7	24.1
Khomas	21.4	2.1	0.0	33.2	5.5	0.0
Kunene	47.6	2.4	0.0	62.2	7.9	0.0
Ohangwena	171.2	59.1	0.0	572.4	197.7	2.1
Omaheke	44.3	0.7	0.0	148.2	2.5	0.0
Omusati	175.0	77.4	0.0	384.2	64.0	0.0
Oshana	91.5	46.0	0.0	35.2	5.9	0.0
Oshikoto	114.2	74.1	0.0	381.8	247.6	0.0
Otjozondjupa	70.8	3.4	0.0	236.8	11.3	0.0
Total	1022.7	334.4	0.0	2631.0	745.0	85.6
^aExpected yields after economically feasible expansion over the next 30 years.

Table 4: Characteristics of some typical forest use enterprises, extracted from empirically derived financial end economic models, 2004

Characteristic	Units	Enterprises
		Small-scale: fuel wood^a	Small-scale: Poles^a	Commercial: saw timber^b	Small-scale: NTFPs^c
Volume produced	m^3/annum	5.50	6.12	15 000	–
Financial (private) values
Initial capital	N$	900	900	6 059 900	1100
Gross output	N$/annum	4300	2100	23 003 300	3400
Variable costs	N$/annum	100	100	9 060 400	600
Fixed costs	N$/annum	500	400	4 513 100	1000
Net profit	N$/annum	3700	1500	9 429 800	1800
Internal rate of return	Per cent, 10 years	153	84	37	79
Net present value	N$, 10 years	19 300	7700	35 650 800	7800
Economic values
Gross value added^d	N$/annum	4300	1900	16 150 900	2200
Value added/output	Per cent	94	89	66	67
Resource rent^e	N$/annum	3600	1500	9 228 100	1800
Rent/output	Per cent	84	73	40	62
^aData from our own specific survey in the communal areas of the north-central Regions; some parameters differ from those used in the accounts (Table 1).
^bDerived from data in Bjorkmann (1999) in Namibia, and Norwegian Forestry Society (1992) in Botswana.
^cData from grass collection enterprises: derived from this study in the Caprivi Region, and from Terry (1999) in Botswana.
^dGross output, less intermediate expenditures.
^eGross output, less intermediate expenditures, cost of labour, and cost of capital.

Table 5: Estimated gross output and direct and total contributions of use of fuel wood, poles, saw timber and non-timber forest products in the economy, 2004

Contribution	Fuel wood N$m	Poles N$m	Saw timber N$m	NTFPs N$m	Total N$m
Gross output in forest use sector
Total	648.3	176.7	0.0	415.7	1241.0
Direct contribution to GNP by Region^a
Caprivi	39.2	2.6	0.0	18.2	60.1
Erongo	12.9	3.2	0.0	6.0	22.1
Hardap	20.4	0.1	0.0	9.5	30.0
Karas	13.6	1.9	0.0	6.3	21.9
Kavango	84.3	24.7	0.0	39.1	148.2
Khomas	12.8	1.0	0.0	5.9	19.7
Kunene	28.4	1.1	0.0	13.2	42.7
Ohangwena	102.1	27.8	0.0	47.4	177.3
Omaheke	26.4	0.4	0.0	12.3	39.0
Omusati	104.4	36.5	0.0	48.4	189.2
Oshana	54.5	21.7	0.0	25.3	101.5
Oshikoto	68.1	34.9	0.0	31.6	134.5
Otjozondjupa	42.2	1.6	0.0	19.6	63.4
Total	609.3	157.5	0.0	282.8	1049.6
Total (both direct and indirect) contribution to GNP^b
Total	966.0	263.6	0.0	619.5	1849.0
^aDirect contribution of the forest use industry to the economy, in terms of value added to GNP.
^bTotal direct contribution to, and indirect impact on, the economy, in terms of value added to GNP, measured using a social accounting matrix of the Namibian economy (Lange et al., 2004).

Table 6: The value of Namibia's standing forest stocks in 2004, estimated in terms of the resource rent that could be generated from them during the next 30 years, using the Net Present Value Method

Category of comparison	Value of standing forest resources
	Fuel wood N$m	Poles N$m	Saw timber N$m	NTFPs N$m	Total N$m
By Region at 6% discount
Caprivi	743	45	440	388	1616
Erongo	162	19	0	110	291
Hardap	272	2	0	185	460
Karas	150	18	0	102	271
Kavango	1597	430	178	834	3040
Khomas	203	17	0	138	358
Kunene	413	19	0	281	713
Ohangwena	1933	484	16	1010	3443
Omaheke	501	6	0	262	768
Omusati	1869	326	0	1271	3466
Oshana	270	43	0	184	497
Oshikoto	1289	606	0	674	2569
Otjozondjupa	800	28	0	418	1245
Total at 6%	10 202	2043	634	5857	18 737
Sensitivity to discount rate
Total at 2%	18 989	3789	1151	10 867	34 796
Total at 4%	13 689	2737	839	7846	25 110
Total at 6%	10 202	2043	634	5857	18 737
Total at 8%	7844	1577	494	4509	14 424
Total at 10%	6203	1252	396	3570	11 421
^aNet present value of future rents generated in expected growth over the next 30 years. The basic model used for net present values contains predictions about the future streams of rent and the discount rate.

Table 7: Comparative estimates of asset value for some Namibian natural resources ,

Resource	Asset value (N$′000,000)
Fish^b	12 000
Minerals^c	14 300
Wildlife^d	10 600
Forests	18 700
Manufactured capital^e	82 000
Total national wealth^f	137 500
^aNet present values of future flows of resource rents from the stocks.
^bDerived from Lange (2004b).
^cDerived from Lange & Hassan (2003).
^dVery approximate (unpublished accounts, 2004; Directorate of Environmental Affairs, Ministry of Environment and Tourism).
^eFixed capital stock; derived from the national accounts (CBS, 2004); includes tangible, produced assets.
^fPartial estimate only; excludes, for example, some asset values for land, water and tourism.

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