Assessing the vulnerability of Stellenbosch's food system and possibilities for a local food economy

Figures & data

Table 1: The global polycrisis and related key documents

Issue	Reference	Message
Climate change	IPCC (2007)	Climate change is now unavoidable and mitigation is essential.
Inequality	UNDP (1998)	Policy focus must shift from poverty to inequality, consumption must be de-linked from development.
Urbanisation	UN DESA (2008)	By the end of 2008, over half the world's population lived in cities (with massive urbanisation predicted in the developing world).
Slums	UN-HABITAT (2003)	One-third of the world's population lives in slums, ‘locus of poverty’ is shifting to cities.
Peak oil	ASPO (2008), IEA (2008)	Oil production will peak soon (ASPO), the era of cheap oil is over (IEA).
Ecosystem degradation	MA (2005)	Human activity has damaged ecosystems to the extent that their ability to support human life is threatened.
Agriculture	IAASTD (2008)	Agriculture needs to find ways to improve livelihoods of small-scale farmers and increase productivity without damaging the environment.

Table 2: Research ideal and actual methodology, and outcomes and opportunities

Empirical data collection	Ideal researchmethodology	Actual researchmethodology	Researchoutcomes	Researchopportunities
Production	GIS map with ERF specific values for both productive capacity and actual output.	Data used from the Commercial agriculture census data (2002), Emerging farmer census data (2006/2009), findings of Cape Winelands Area Based Plan on productive capacity (2006) and the Specialist Soil and Land Study for the Cape Winelands (2007).	Estimated production for Stellenbosch per product in tonnes. Potential productive capacity for the Stellenbosch region by current land use and broad productive potential.	Detailed surveys and mapping of both actual and potential productivity.
Distribution	Detailed surveys of where farmers sell their food to.	No data available from farmers on where they sell their food to. General statistics on exports for certain commodities (Louw, 2009; SAWIS, 2009).	Broad overview of distribution patterns for parts of the distribution chains through inferences and estimations.	Detailed surveys of where farmers sell their food to.
	Accurate systems from local retailers to show where they source their food.	Estimates from retailers on percentage of food locally sourced.		Systems for retailers to show where they source their food.
	Detailed surveys of where people purchase their food.	National estimates of typical purchasing habits (BFAP, 2009).		Detailed surveys of where people purchase their food.
Consumption	Representative profile of typical consumption patterns across various demographic groups in Stellenbosch. Locally suitable nutritionally optimal diet across age groups.	National food consumption report (2002) compared with multiple Food Pyramid studies (2009).	Estimated consumption patterns for local residents. Nutritionally optimal diet inferred from multiple studies.	Detailed surveys on typical consumption patterns for multiple demographic profiles of Stellenbosch. Locally suitable nutritionally optimal diet across age groups.

Table 3: Summary of research findings

	Current production					Current consumption			Nutritionally optimal consumption
Food group	Commercial (kg/year)	Emerging (kg/year)	Total(kg/year)	Total (tonnes/year)	Area (ha)	Total(kg/year)	Total (tonnes/year)	Required (ha)	Total(kg/year)	Total (tonnes/year)	Required (ha)
Cereals	0	0	0	0	0	53 411 519	53 412	5 341	44 218 159	44 218	4 422
Sugar	0	0	0	0	0	7 334 221	7 334	n/a	0	0	0
Stimulants	43 000	0	43 000	43	361	216 441	216	n/a	0	0	0
Milk	6 486 298	0	6 486 298	6 486	504	7 550 860	7 551	8	25 917 692	25 918	2 013
Meat	2 158 164	0	2 158 164	2 158	577	6 751 598	6 752	10	2 434 411	2 434	4
Vegetables	5 211 000	1 051 625	6 262 625	6 263	424	6 264 002	6 264	313	32 901 107	32 901	1 645
Vegetable oils	0	0	0	0	0	695 780	696	696	3 836 074	3 836	3 836
Roots	0	2 750	2 750	3	1	3 739 778	3 740	n/a	0	0	0
Fruit	19 233 000	6 000	19 239 000	19 239	2 143	5 663 066	5 663	126	20 709 158	20 709	460
Wine grapes	86 284 000	0	86 284 000	86 284	8 924	0	0	0	0	0	0
Eggs	2 418 424	0	2 418 424	2 418	0	1 089 214	1 089	0	2 498 400	2 498	0
Pulses	0	0	0	0	0	2 391 953	2 392	199	3 836 074	3 836	320
Nuts	25 000	0	25 000	25	2	134 157	134	27	3 653 840	3 654	731
Fish	55 000	0	55 000	55	0	917 552	918	n/a	3 981 990	3 982	n/a
Human milk and BMS	0	0	0	0	0	163 641	164	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
Soups	0	0	0	0	0	301 805	302	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
Infant foods	0	0	0	0	0	18 977	19	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
Condiments	0	0	0	0	0	41 798	42	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
Animal oils and fats	0	0	0	0	0	75 977	76	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
Spices	0	0	0	0	0	116	0	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
Supplements	0	0	0	0	0	7 489	7	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
Alcohol	0	0	0	0	0	3 738 518	3 739	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
Total	35 629 886	1 060 375	36 690 261	122 974	12 935	100 508 462	100 508	6 720	143 986 907	143 987	13 430
Notes: BMS = breast milk substitute; n/a = not available.

Table 4: Current consumption composition by weight

Food category	Percentage of total diet by weight
Cereals	53
Milk	8
Meat	7
Sugar	7
Vegetables	6
Fruits	6
Roots	4
Alcohol	4

Figure 1: Current vs nutritionally optimal annual consumption (kg) by food group for Stellenbosch

Table 5: Weaknesses and vulnerabilities of Stellenbosch's current food system

Weakness	Description
Production
Focus on export markets	Export markets will become increasingly less attractive and competitive as oil prices rise. While many point out the foreign exchange and job creation benefits of export markets, questions should be asked about how fairly the benefits are shared and about the security and quality of jobs for lower income members of the community.
Large-scale commercial agriculture dominates	Land holdings (and equity) in Stellenbosch have not changed much since 1994. The poorer members of the community do not have access to land from which to earn a living, and high mechanisation levels on such farms means fewer jobs are available in the agricultural sector.
Proliferation of conventional farming methods	These methods make heavy use of fertilisers and pesticides derived from oil, which will make this method of farming increasingly less competitive as oil prices rise. They have also been shown to have negative environmental impacts (IAASTD, 2008).
Distribution
Long value chains	Food travels long distances to and from Stellenbosch, which will no longer be feasible under peak oil conditions.
Dominance of national retailers	These supermarkets export profits out of Stellenbosch, reducing any multiplier effects of food spending. They also tend to exclude small-scale farmers who cannot meet their requirements.
Consumption
High levels of food insecurity and poor food choices	Many Stellenbosch residents are under-nourished or malnourished because of poverty and poor food choices. This hampers their development and that of the broader community.

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