The fiscal cost of child grants in the context of high adult mortality in South Africa: A simulation to 2015

Figures & data

Figure 1: Child Support Grant take-up by age Notes.

Figure 2: Beneficiaries and recipients of the Foster Care Grant over time Notes.

Figure 3: Child Support Grant beneficiaries and eligibles, October 2008 Notes.

Table 1: Simulated eligibility under the new means test by grant type in 2008

Eligible for CSG (simulation)	CSG	FCG	CDG	No grant	Total
Yes	6 532 853	200 428	49 937	2 642 871	9 799 297
No	142 454	31 264	861	1 722 665	2 052 699
Total	7 844 776	256 692	57 677	4 961 040	13 751 948
Source: SALDRU (2008). Own calculations.
Notes: Rows and columns do not add up to the totals since missing values are included in the totals but are not displayed. Thirteen per cent of those with grant information are missing income data and 5% of those with income information are missing grant data.

Table 2: Poverty headcounts of caregivers eligible for the Child Support Grant

	R949	R515	$1.25 per day	$2 per day	40% median	50% median
% below	86.3	75.1	64.2	67.3	64.6	66.3
% above	13.7	24.9	35.8	32.7	35.4	33.7
Source: SALDRU (2008). Own calculations.

Figure 4: Mortality rates and growth by age between 2008 and 2015 Notes.

Figure 5: National Total Fertility Rate and decline over time Notes.

Figure 6: Population pyramids for 2008 (top) and 2015 (bottom) Notes.

Figure 7: Simulated eligibility for the Child Support Grant by age for 2008 and 2015 Notes.

Figure 8: Cost of child grant transfers, including estimates and a projection Notes.

Figure 9: Proportion of orphans under 15 who are receiving a grant Notes.

Table 3: Simulated cost of the Foster Care Grant in various scenarios during 2008

	Children	Cost per annum (R millions)	Additional cost (R millions)
Current Foster Care Grant	494 992	3 742	–
Including all orphans	4 592 612	34 720	30 978
Including dual orphans	1 002 399	7 578	3 836