Determinants of return migration intentions: Evidence from Zimbabwean migrants living in South Africa

Figures & data

Figure 1: Trend of Zimbabwe population in South Africa

Table 1: Determinant variables and analysis of the decision to return

		Return or stay
		Stay in South Africa		Go back home		Total
Determinant variables		N	Percentage	N	Percentage	N	Percentage
Gender	Female	663	41.8%	1262	41.3%	1925	41.5%
	Male	925	58.2%	1790	58.7%	2715	58.5%
	Total	1588	100.0%	3052	100.0%	4640	100.0%
Legal status	Documented	579	36.5%	1427	46.8%	2006	43.2%
	Undocumented	1009	63.5%	1625	53.2%	2634	56.8%
	Total	1588	100.0%	3052	100.0%	4640	100.0%
Number of dependants in Zimbabwe	None	144	9.1%	154	5.1%	298	6.4%
	1–2	340	21.4%	633	20.8%	973	21.0%
	3–4	631	39.8%	1321	43.4%	1952	42.2%
	5 +	472	29.7%	935	30.7%	1407	30.4%
	Total	1587	100.0%	3043	100.0%	4630	100.0%
Marital status	Single	596	38.2%	1064	35.2%	1660	36.2%
	Married	789	50.6%	1738	57.5%	2527	55.1%
	Widowed	55	3.5%	91	3.0%	146	3.2%
	Divorced	120	7.7%	130	4.3%	250	5.5%
	Total	1560	100.0%	3023	100.0%	4583	100.0%
Age	<18 years	17	1.1%	15	.5%	32	.7%
	18–20 years	94	6.0%	129	4.2%	223	4.8%
	21–30 years	625	39.7%	1224	40.3%	1849	40.1%
	31–40	632	40.1%	1211	39.9%	1843	40.0%
	41–50	177	11.2%	422	13.9%	599	13.0%
	51+ years old	30	1.9%	37	1.2%	67	1.5%
	Total	1575	100.0%	3038	100.0%	4613	100.0%
Level of education	University degree	34	2.2%	150	4.9%	184	4.0%
	Professional qualifications	135	8.6%	693	22.8%	828	18.0%
	Post-secondary diploma/certificate	112	7.1%	354	11.7%	466	10.1%
	Secondary education	1175	74.7%	1685	55.5%	2860	62.0%
	Primary education and other lower forms of education	118	7.5%	155	5.1%	273	5.9%
	Total	1574	100.0%	3037	100.0%	4611	100.0%
Economic activity	Domestic worker/gardener	181	11.6%	331	11.0%	512	11.2%
	Security	245	15.7%	369	12.2%	614	13.4%
	Hairdressing	93	6.0%	119	3.9%	212	4.6%
	Shop assistant	105	6.7%	173	5.7%	278	6.1%
	Teacher	53	3.4%	270	8.9%	323	7.1%
	Driver	40	2.6%	75	2.5%	115	2.5%
	Health professional	26	1.7%	133	4.4%	159	3.5%
	Hawking	173	11.1%	269	8.9%	442	9.7%
	Miscellaneous professions	37	2.4%	98	3.2%	135	2.9%
	Artisan	117	7.5%	296	9.8%	413	9.0%
	Hospitality workers	247	15.8%	338	11.2%	585	12.8%
	Other (miscellaneous menial jobs)	242	15.5%	549	18.2%	791	17.3%
	Total	1559	100.0%	3020	100.0%	4579	100.0%
Monthly income	R1000 or less	308	20.1%	605	20.6%	913	20.4%
	R1001–2000	639	41.7%	1077	36.7%	1716	38.4%
	R2001–4000	415	27.1%	785	26.7%	1200	26.8%
	Over R4000	171	11.2%	471	16.0%	642	14.4%
	Total	1533	100.0%	2938	100.0%	4471	100.0%
Reason for migrating	Economic reasons	588	37.2%	1435	47.1%	2023	43.7%
	Economic and political reasons	173	10.9%	421	13.8%	594	12.8%
	Economic and other reasons	49	3.1%	74	2.4%	123	2.7%
	Political reasons	718	45.4%	1026	33.7%	1744	37.7%
	Political and other reasons	13	0.8%	21	0.7%	34	0.7%
	Other reasons	41	2.6%	70	2.3%	111	2.4%
	Total	1582	100.0%	3047	100.0%	4629	100.0%
Length of stay	Arrived before 2000	165	10.4%	190	6.2%	355	7.7%
	Arrived 2000 onwards	1423	89.6%	2861	93.8%	4284	92.3%
	Total	1588	100.0%	3051	100.0%	4639	100.0%
Source: Adapted from the dataset used by Makina (2007, 2010).

Table 2: Results of binary logistic regression

Variables		B	S.E.	Wald	df	Sig.	Exp (B)
Constant		–0.902	0.527	2.932	1	0.087	0.406
Legal status		–0.110	0.081	1.849	1	0.174	0.896
Reason for migrating				35.074	5	0.000***
	Economic	0.238	0.245	0.942	1	0.332	1.269
	Economic and political	0.344	0.261	1.737	1	0.188	1.411
	Economic and other	–0.393	0.312	1.591	1	0.207	0.675
	Political	–0.139	0.250	0.308	1	0.579	0.871
	Political and other	–0.164	0.442	0.138	1	0.710	0.848
Gender		0.060	0.079	0.587	1	0.710	1.062
Age				10.929	5	0.053*
	18–20	0.236	0.468	0.255	1	0.613	1.267
	21–30	0.416	0.449	0.860	1	0.354	1.516
	31–40	0.159	0.453	0.123	1	0.726	1.172
	41–50	0.283	0.463	0.374	1	0.541	1.327
	50 +	0.052	0.528	0.010	1	0.921	1.053
Marital status				6.338	3	0.096*
	Married	0.140	0.085	2.728	1	0.099*	1.151
	Widowed	0.087	0.203	0.183	1	0.668	1.091
	Divorced/separated	–0.180	0.156	1.340	1	0.247	0.835
Number of dependants in home country				31.003	3	0.000***
	1–2	0.783	0.163	23.145	1	0.000***	2.188
	3–4	0.845	0.157	29.031	1	0.000***	2.328
	5 +	0.850	0.158	28.752	1	0.000***	2.339
Level of education				102.685	4	0.000***
	University degree	0.958	0.262	13.395	1	0.000***	2.605
	Professional qualifications	1.155	0.183	39.876	1	0.000***	3.174
	Post-secondary diploma/certificate	0.620	0.186	11.105	1	0.001***	1.858
	Secondary	–0.071	0.142	0.254	1	0.614	0.931
Economic activity in host country				33.813	11	0.000***
	Security	–0.260	0.140	3.461	1	0.063*	0.771
	Hairdressing	–0.508	0.175	8.404	1	0.004**	0.602
	Shop assistant	–0.191	0.165	1.339	1	0.247	0.826
	Teacher	0.155	0.209	0.555	1	0.456	1.168
	Driver	0.082	0.242	0.115	1	0.734	1.086
	Health professionals	0.406	0.264	2.371	1	0.124	1.501
	Hawking	–0.289	0.145	3.954	1	0.047**	0.749
	Miscellaneous professions	–0.048	0.243	0.039	1	0.843	0.953
	Artisans	0.093	0.165	0.317	1	0.573	1.097
	Hospitality workers	–0.436	0.138	9.931	1	0.002	0.647
	Other	–0.080	0.144	0.311	1	0.577	0.923
Monthly income level				11.603	3	0.009***
	R1001–2000	–0.176	0.097	3.289	1	0.070*	0.839
	R2001–4000	–0.342	0.110	9.614	1	0.002***	0.711
	Over R4000	–0.392	0.144	7.453	1	0.006***	0.676
Duration of stay		0.594	0.130	20.798	1	0.000***	1.811
	–2 Log likelihood	Cox and Snell R-squared		Nagelkerke R-squared
	5135.187	0.087		0.121
Hosmer and Lemeshow test
	Chi-square	Degrees of freedom		Significance
	13.959	8		0.083
Note: *, ** and *** denote significance at the 10%, 5% and 1% confidence interval respectively.

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