Winners and losers: South African labour-market dynamics between 2008 and 2010

Figures & data

Table 1: Employment status: levels and changes from the cross-sectional view

		Percentage in each category in 2010						Percentage change, 2008 to 2010
		i	ii	iii	iv	v	vi
			Unemployed			Unemployment rate
	Obs.	NEA	Disc.	Search	Employed	(Strict)	(Broad)	NEA	Disc.	Search	Emp.
Aggregate	7 889	32.0	4.9	11.8	51.3	18.7	24.6	9.8	–1.6	–6.5	–1.7
African	6 383	33.7	5.3	13.2	47.8	21.7	28.0	10.5	–1.5	–7.4	–1.7
Coloured	1 143	27.7	4.4	8.1	59.8	11.9	17.3	11.4	–3.6	–3.2	–4.7
Indian	96	24.4	6.7	8.4	60.4	12.3	20.1	–0.8	1.9	2.0	–3.1
White	267	21.2	0.4	2.8	75.6	3.6	4.1	4.4	–1.6	–2.2	–0.6
Male	2 573	22.3	3.9	10.4	63.3	14.1	18.5	7.1	–0.3	–4.6	–2.1
Female	4 616	39.4	5.7	13.0	41.9	23.7	30.8	12.3	–2.4	–7.7	–2.2
Age 20 to 25	1 824	35.7	6.3	18.4	39.6	31.8	38.5	3.3	–1.5	–6.3	4.5
Age 26 to 35	2 205	26.5	4.9	13.7	54.9	20.0	25.3	11.0	–1.9	–9.3	0.3
Age 36 to 45	2 072	28.4	3.9	8.6	59.1	12.6	17.5	12.2	–2.5	–4.6	–5.1
Age 46 to 55	1 788	41.4	4.4	5.0	49.2	9.3	16.1	12.5	0.1	–4.3	–8.3

Notes: Obs., observations; Disc., discouraged unemployed; Search, searching unemployed; Emp., employed.

Table 2: Employment status, longitudinal perspective

	Employment status in 2010
Employment status in 2008	NEA	Discouraged	Searching	Employed
NEA	56.8	6.1	15.0	22.0
Discouraged	43.1	10.8	18.1	28.0
Searching	39.7	6.5	21.6	32.3
Employed	18.5	3.2	6.7	71.6

Table 3: Augmented transition matrix: male employment status, 2008 to 2010

Employment status in 2008		Employment status in 2010
		22.3	3.9	10.4	63.3
		NEA	Discouraged	Searching	Employed
15.2	NEA	50.0	5.9	14.9	29.2
4.3	Discouraged	30.3	11.9	13.6	44.1
15.0	Searching	35.9	3.2	22.3	38.7
65.4	Employed	12.4	3.3	6.7	77.5

Table 4: Augmented transition matrix: female employment status, 2008 to 2010

Employment status in 2008		Employment status in 2010
		39.4	5.7	13.0	41.9
		NEA	Discouraged	Searching	Employed
27.1	NEA	59.5	6.2	15.1	19.2
8.0	Discouraged	47.4	10.4	19.5	22.7
20.7	Searching	41.5	8.2	21.2	29.1
44.2	Employed	24.7	3.2	6.7	65.4

Table 5: Type of employment: levels and changes from the cross-sectional view

		Percentage in each employment category in 2010			Change in percentage between 2008 and 2010
		i	ii	iii	i	ii	iii
	Number ofobservations	Regular	Self	Casual	Regular	Self	Casual
Aggregate	3 452	81.1	11.7	7.2	6.4	–3.0	–3.4
African	2 574	80.3	11.1	8.6	7.7	–4.7	–3.1
Coloured	635	86.9	6.9	6.2	–0.6	3.9	–3.3
Indian	50	73.1	24.7	2.2	8.2	5.7	–13.9
White	193	83.6	16.1	0.4	3.2	–0.7	–2.5
Male	1 461	80.4	11.2	8.4	3.7	–0.6	–3.0
Female	1 653	80.5	13.4	6.1	8.1	–4.6	–3.5
Age 20 to 25	617	80.1	10.2	9.8	8.3	2.4	–10.7
Age 26 to 35	1 045	83.7	9.4	6.9	6.4	–3.5	–2.9
Age 36 to 45	1 072	80.9	13.4	5.7	4.5	–1.7	–2.8
Age 46 to 55	718	77.7	15.0	7.5	7.4	–6.9	–0.4

Table 6: Type of employment, longitudinal perspective

Type of employment in 2008		Type of employment in 2010
		40.4	5.8	3.6	50.2
		Regularemployment	Self-employment	Casualemployment	Other/non- employment
36.5	Regular employment	76.2	3.0	2.9	17.9
7.2	Self-employment	14.8	34.6	4.1	46.5
5.2	Casual employment	32.1	9.1	6.5	52.3
51.2	Other/non-employment	17.5	3.7	3.6	75.2

Table 7: Augmented transition matrix: type of employment among males

Type of employment in 2008		Type of employment in 2010
		49.5	6.9	5.2	38.5
		Regular employment	Self-employment	Casual employment	Other/non-employment
47.5	Regular employment	77.6	3.8	3.9	14.7
7.3	Self-employment	19.0	32.4	6.3	42.2
7.1	Casual employment	29.9	10.2	9.9	50.0
38.1	Other/non-employment	22.6	4.5	6.0	66.9

Notes: Sample restricted to adults aged 20 to 55 in 2008. Other/non-employment includes those out of the labor force, those broadly defined as unemployed and those individuals who are employed in subsistence agriculture or other employment. All proportions have been weighted using the post-stratification weights that account for attrition. Row percentages sum to 100%.

Table 8: Augmented transition matrix: type of employment among females

Type of employment in 2008		Type of employment in 2010
		32.6	5.4	2.5	59.5
		Regular employment	Self-employment	CasualEmployment	Other/non-employment
28.6	Regular employment	74.4	2.0	1.9	21.7
7.1	Self-Employment	11.9	36.1	2.6	49.4
3.8	Casual employment	35.0	7.6	1.9	55.5
60.5	Other/non-employment	15.3	3.4	2.6	78.7

Notes: Sample restricted to adults aged 20 to 55 in 2008. Other/non-employment includes those out of the labor force, those broadly defined as unemployed and those individuals who are employed in subsistence agriculture or other employment. All proportions have been weighted using the post-stratification weights that account for attrition. Row percentages sum to 100%.

Table 9: Augmented industry transition matrix

Industry in 2008		Industry in 2010
		12.6	15.5	64.9	6.9
		Primary	Secondary	Tertiary	Private household/other
12.7	Primary	68.2	12.3	17.5	2.0
21.1	Secondary	10.3	48.9	38.0	2.9
59.4	Tertiary	2.1	5.7	90.2	2.0
6.8	Private household/other	5.6	2.5	18.0	73.9

Table 10: Augmented industry transition matrix for males

Industry in 2008		Industry in 2010
		18.9	20.8	58.9	1.3
		Primary	Secondary	Tertiary	Private household/other
18.8	Primary	73.3	11.2	14.1	1.4
28.6	Secondary	11.3	46.3	40.7	1.6
51.5	Tertiary	3.4	9.6	86.6	0.4
1.1	Private household/other	17.7	19.9	25.7	36.8

Table 11: Augmented industry transition matrix for females

Industry in 2008		Industry in 2010
		5.0	9.1	72.1	13.7
		Primary	Secondary	Tertiary	Private household/other
5.6	Primary	48.0	16.8	31.1	4.2
12.4	Secondary	7.5	55.8	30.4	6.3
68.6	Tertiary	1.0	2.3	93.3	3.4
13.4	Private household/other	4.5	0.8	17.2	77.5

Table 12: Augmented occupation transition matrix

Occupation in 2008		Occupation in 2010
		32.3	44.4	23.2
		Managerial / professional	Semi-skilled	Elementary occupations
27.8	Managerial / professional	77.0	18.3	4.7
54.4	Semi-skilled	16.7	65.5	17.8
17.8	Elementary occupations	6.3	22.5	71.2

Notes: Sample restricted to adults aged 20 to 55 in 2008 who were regular wage workers in both periods. All proportions have been weighted using the post-stratification weights that account for attrition. Row percentages sum to 100%.

Table 13: Augmented occupational transition matrix for males

Occupation in 2008		Occupation in 2010
		25.4	52.3	22.3
		Managerial/ professional	Semi-skilled	Elementary occupations
20.5	Managerial / professional	73.7	17.3	9.0
66.7	Semi-skilled	12.2	67.9	19.9
12.8	Elementary occupations	9.9	27.6	62.4

Notes: Sample restricted to adults aged 20 to 55 in 2008 who were regular wage workers in both periods. All proportions have been weighted using the post-stratification weights that account for attrition. Row percentages sum to 100%.

Table 14: Augmented occupation transition matrix for females

Occupation in 2008		Occupation in 2010
		40.7	35.1	24.2
		Managerial / professional	Semi-skilled	Elementary occupations
36.5	Managerial / professional	79.2	18.9	1.9
39.7	Semi-skilled	25.7	60.7	13.5
23.8	Elementary occupations	4.1	19.3	76.5

Notes: Sample restricted to adults aged 20 to 55 in 2008 who were regular wage workers in both periods. All proportions have been weighted using the post-stratification weights that account for attrition. Row percentages sum to 100%.

Table 15: Changes in monthly earnings by type of employment transition

		Employment type in 2010
Employment type in 2008		Regular employment	Self-employment	Casual employment
Regular employment	Mean	135	–3 886	–640
	Mean SE	(185)	(1 205)	(219)
	Median	383	–1 131	–139
	Percent positive	63%	29%	35%
Self-employment	Mean	3 011	–2 286	617
	Mean SE	(884)	(862)	(790)
	Median	1 061	75	195
	Percent positive	80%	53%	56%
Casual employment	Mean	909	158	–121
	Mean SE	(120)	(184)	(155)
	Median	808	264	–7
	Percent positive	84%	67%	50%

Table 16: Changes in monthly earnings by industry transition

		Industry type in 2010
Industry type in 2008		Primary	Secondary	Tertiary	Private household/other
Primary	Mean	225	–5 046	–1 077	15
	Mean SE	(183)	(2 999)	(974)	(181)
	Median	180	384	547	85
	Percent positive	62%	69%	73%	57%
Secondary	Mean	–79	828	1 354	70
	Mean SE	(378)	(506)	(494)	(141)
	Median	248	274	496	227
	Percent positive	61%	64%	66%	67%
Tertiary	Mean	1 168	507	21	–51
	Mean SE	(517)	(630)	(359)	(63)
	Median	1 289	985	562	–74
	Percent positive	61%	66%	65%	40%
Private household/other	Mean	–13	205	177	257
	Mean SE	(164)	(394)	(268)	(77)
	Median	122	–269	174	103
	Percent positive	52%	42%	72%	64%

Table 17: Changes in monthly earnings by occupation transition

		Occupation in 2010
Occupation in 2008		Managerial / professional	Semi-skilled	Elementary occupations
Managerial / professional	Mean	–858	–509	–334
	Mean SE	(622)	(815)	(560)
	Median	605	126	100
	Percent positive	62%	50%	52%
Semi-skilled	Mean	1 983	611	–107
	Mean SE	(553)	(266)	(182)
	Median	1 125	405	139
	Percent positive	75%	63%	61%
Elementary occupations	Mean	687	352	506
	Mean SE	(278)	(117)	(613)
	Median	380	488	132
	Percent positive	78%	68%	63%

Table 18: Determinants of transitions across regular employment and non-employment/subsistence agriculture among Africans

	Probit (marginal effects)
	Regular employment to non-employment/subsistence agriculture			Subsistence agriculture/non-employment to regular employment
Demographics (2008 values)	All	Male	Female	All	Male	Female
Male	–0.02			0.09***
Age	–0.02*	–0.04**	–0.01	0.02***	0.04***	0.02**
Age squared	0.00	0.00*	0.00	–0.00***	–0.00***	–0.00**
Married	0.03	0.07*	0.00	–0.01	0.00	–0.01
Number of children under six years	0.04***	0.03*	0.06***	0.01	–0.04*	0.02**
Education (years)	–0.00	0.00	–0.01*	0.01***	0.01	0.01***
Industry
Primary (O)
Secondary	0.03	–0.01	0.06
Tertiary	–0.01	–0.05	0.01
Private household	0.06	0.08	0.06
Occupation
Managerial/professional (O)
Semi-skilled	–0.06	–0.10*	–0.01
Elementary occupations	–0.06	–0.14**	–0.02
Initial employment characteristics
Recent hire (tenure <2 years)	0.03	–0.05	0.12**
Tenure at job, 2008 (years)	–0.00	–0.00	0.00
Union member	0.03	0.04	–0.02
Working full-time	–0.03	0.00	–0.06
Permanent contract	–0.05*	–0.11***	–0.00
Log (monthly pay)	0.28*	0.49*	0.24
Log (monthly pay) squared	–0.03**	–0.04*	–0.02
Months since Wave 1 interview	–0.00	–0.01	0.00	0.01*	0.02***	0.01*
Location type
Rural formal (O)
Traditional authority area	0.04	0.05	0.01	–0.06**	0.03	–0.09***
Urban formal	0.00	0.04	–0.08	–0.02	0.03	–0.02
Urban informal	–0.03	0.03	–0.12*	–0.04	0.12	–0.09**
Province
Western Cape (O)
Eastern Cape	0.00	0.01	0.00	–0.12	0.18	–0.16***
Northern Cape	–0.01	–0.19	0.11	–0.12	0.29**	–0.21***
Free State	0.17*	0.11	0.24*	–0.11	0.14	–0.12**
KwaZulu-Natal	0.08	0.11	0.05	–0.06	0.20	–0.08
North-West	0.06	0.04	0.08	–0.05	0.29**	–0.11*
Gauteng	0.03	–0.00	0.04	–0.03	0.24*	–0.07
Mpumalanga	0.11	0.07	0.14	–0.02	0.33**	–0.06
Limpopo	0.11	0.12	0.05	–0.07	0.17	–0.08
n	1338	642	696	3455	961	2494