Microeconomic determinants of spatial mobility in post-apartheid South Africa: Longitudinal evidence from the National Income Dynamics Study

Figures & data

Figure 1: Migrant definitions and household residency

Figure 2: Age distribution by migrant status

Table 1: Distribution of African migration in South Africa in 2008

	Migrants	Retrospective migrants	Labour migrants
Panel A: unweighted
Number of migrants	3 342	2 376	1 392
Proportion	0.15	0.11	0.06
Number of prime-age migrants	1 857	1 590	1 101
Proportion	0.18	0.15	0.09
Panel B: weighted
Number of migrants	6 954 596	5 996 858	1 842 357
Proportion	0.18	0.16	0.04
Number of prime-age migrants	4 230 206	4 249 433	1 ,523 177
Proportion	0.21	0.21	0.07
Individual characteristics
Female	0.49	0.52	0.37
Ages 0 to 6	0.17	0.12	0.01
Ages 7 to 17	0.20	0.16	0.01
Ages 18 to 40	0.52	0.62	0.68
Age 41 to 58	0.09	0.09	0.28
Age 60+	0.01	0.01	0.02
Provinces
Western Cape	0.04	0.06	0.01
Eastern Cape	0.10	0.06	0.04
Northern Cape	0.02	0.01	0.01
Free State	0.06	0.05	0.03
KwaZulu-Natal	0.14	0.15	0.29
North-West Province	0.07	0.11	0.05
Gauteng	0.37	0.40	0.37
Mpumalanga	0.07	0.07	0.09
Limpopo	0.13	0.09	0.09

Notes: Migrants (column one) give descriptive statistics in 2008 (W1) for migrants (those that moved between W1 and W2). Thus, this column gives information for migrants at baseline, prior to their moving in the next two years. Data are from NIDS W 1 conducted in 2008. Where indicated, estimates are weighted using NIDS W1 calibrated cross-sectional weights and take into account survey design – including clusters and strata – using Stata's svy commands. All samples are for prime-age adults between 18 and 56 years old, except where indicated and for the distribution across age categories where all ages are included. For migrants and retrospective migrants, the samples contain only resident household members. For labour migrants, non-residents are also included.

Table 2a: Household characteristics of prime-age African migrants and non-migrants

	2008
	Migrant		Retrospective migrant		Labour migrant
	Migrant	Not migrant	Migrant	Not migrant	Migrant	Not migrant
Household characteristics
Number of households (thousands)	2 906	5 621	3 245	5 269	897	7 606
Number of resident members	3.784	3.389*	3.041	3.827*	4.661	3.388*
Number of residents aged 0 to 6	0.609	0.533	0.491	0.602*	0.957	0.511*
Number of residents aged 7 to 17	0.809	0.802	0.516	0.984*	1.434	0.729*
Number of residents aged 18 to 30	1.227	0.879*	1.049	0.965	1.161	0.978
Number of labour migrants	0.148	0.154	0.087	0.192*	1.443	0.000*
Number of migrants	1.983	0.000*	0.902	0.538*	0.661	0.678*
Number of retrospective migrants	0.906	0.501*	1.678	0.000*	0.386	0.666*
Head of household is female	0.399	0.403	0.361	0.427*	0.420	0.398*
Region and infrastructure characteristics
Tapped water into residence	0.428	0.367*	0.438	0.355*	0.235	0.406*
Electricity is main source for lighting	0.575	0.534	0.607	0.512*	0.451	0.560*
Geo-type: rural	0.325	0.408*	0.261	0.454*	0.712	0.340*
Provincial GDP growth 2008–10	1.564	1.521	1.588	1.503*	1.434	1.548*
District employment rate	0.273	0.264	0.290	0.253*	0.245	0.270*
District household income	5510	5222	6082	4836*	4056	5472*
Household labour-market and income characteristics
Number of residents employed	0.981	0.912	1.030	0.878*	0.732	0.961*
Per-capita monthly household income: grants	146	169*	158	163		143
Per-capita monthly household income: excluding grants	1521	1383	1780	1211*	707	1519*
Per-capita monthly household remittance income	382	467	555	365	300	482
Receives at least one OAP	0.084	0.082	0.037	0.110*	0.149	0.074*
Contains eligible OAP member	0.081	0.076	0.037	0.104*	0.156	0.069*
Death of OAP eligible member	0.018	0.012	0.005	0.019*	0.023	0.013*
Contains resident aged 52 to 56	0.091	0.101	0.072	0.113*	0.120	0.095*
Household receives at least one CSG	0.333	0.357	0.277	0.394*	0.494	0.331*
Household received housing subsidy	0.058	0.101*	0.066	0.099*	0.096	0.086*
Household new grant in last 24 months	0.033	0.035	0.029	0.038	0.054	0.032
Household lost grant in last 24 months	0.003	0.006	0.002	0.007*	0.0054	0.0048*
Observations	1 857	8 542	1 590	8 754	1 101	10 998

Notes: Migrants (column one) give descriptive statistics in 2008 (W1) for migrants (those that moved between W1 and W2). Thus, this column gives information for migrants at baseline, prior to their moving in the next two years. Data are from NIDS W1 conducted in 2008. All estimates are weighted using NIDS W1 calibrated cross-sectional weights and take into account survey design – including clusters and strata – using Stata's svy commands. All samples are for prime-age adults between 18 and 56 years old, except for the distribution across age categories where all ages are included. Where age is missing, adults are identified as all individuals who are married, widowed or divorced, or who have completed 11 years of education. For migrants and retrospective migrants, the samples contain only resident household members. For labour migrants, non-residents are also included. OAP eligibility is age 60 for women and age 63 for men. Married includes living together. Remittances and income variables only include positive observations. GDP, gross domestic product. *Differences between migrants and non-migrants are significant at the 5% level.

Table 2b: Individual characteristics of African prime-age migrants and non-migrants

	2008
	Migrant		Retrospective migrant		Labour migrant
	Migrant	Not migrant	Migrant	Not migrant	Migrant	Not migrant
Individual characteristics
Female	0.49	0.54*	0.52	0.53	0.37	0.53*
Age	29.8	33.1*	30.0	33.0*	34.4	32.2*
Married	0.35	0.36	0.43	0.34*	0.33	0.35
Divorced	0.01	0.02	0.01	0.02	0.01	0.02
Widowed	0.02	0.04*	0.03	0.04*	0.02	0.04
Body mass index	25.4	26.5	25.7	26.4
Likely to migrate in two years	2.10	1.77	2.18	1.73
Prefer to move residence	2.35	1.98	2.51	1.91
Retrospective migrant	0.40	0.16*	1.00	0.00
Attritor	0.49	0.16*	0.39	0.19*
Individual labour market and income characteristics
Years of education	9.72	8.93*	10.03	8.84*	9.39	9.13
No education	0.04	0.08*	0.04	0.08*	0.04	0.07*
Primary	0.16	0.20*	0.14	0.21*	0.21	0.19
Less than high school grade	0.43	0.43	0.39	0.44*	0.38	0.43*
High school	0.27	0.20*	0.29	0.20*	0.30	0.22*
Post-secondary	0.10	0.09	0.14	0.08*	0.06	0.09*
Currently enrolled	0.22	0.27	0.18	0.29
Employed	0.44	0.42	0.56	0.39*	0.77	0.41*
Wage	3 765	2 738	3 569	2 715
Sends remittances	0.11	0.08*	0.18	0.06*
Observations	1 857	8 542	1 590	8 754	1 101	10 998

Notes: Migrants (column one) give descriptive statistics in 2008 (W1) for migrants (those that moved between W1 and W2). Thus, this column gives information for migrants at baseline, prior to their moving in the next two years. Data are from NIDS W1 conducted in 2008. All estimates are weighted using NIDS W1 calibrated cross-sectional weights and take into account survey design – including clusters and strata – using Stata's svy commands. All samples are for prime-age adults between 18 and 56 years old, except for the distribution across age categories where all ages are included. Where age is missing, adults are identified as all individuals who are married, widowed or divorced, or who have completed 11 years of education. For migrants and retrospective migrants, the samples contain only resident household members. For labour migrants, non-residents are also included. OAP eligibility is age 60 for women and age 63 for men. Married includes living together. Remittances and income variables only include positive observations. *Differences between migrants and non-migrants are significant at the 5% level.

Figure 3: Transfer and non-transfer income, by migrant status in 2008

Table 3: Predicting migration from baseline in 2008

Individual characteristics	Dependent variable: migrated between W1 and W2
	All residents 16 to 65 years old
Retrospective migrant (migrated previously)	0.202***	0.137***
	(0.023)	(0.026)
Expect to migrate in next two years	0.057***	0.043***
	(0.009)	(0.009)
Full set of controls (results omitted)	No	Yes

Notes: All estimates are weighted using NIDS W1 calibrated cross-sectional weights and take into account survey design – including clusters and strata – using Stata's svy commands. Data report the coefficients (standard errors) from ordinary least-squares regression of an indicator for whether an individual migrated between W1 (2008) and W2 (2010/11). ***p < 0.0001, **p < 0.05, *p < 0.1.

Table 4: Determinants of migration for adults aged 18 to 56 at baseline in 2008

	Dependent variable: migrated between W1 and W2
	Full sample			Africans			Whites	Coloureds
	Women and men	Women only	Men only	Women and men	Women only	Men only	Women and men	Women and men
Individual characteristics
Wage	0.005***	–0.000	0.009***	0.007***	0.004	0.009***	–0.001	–0.000
	(0.002)	(0.004)	(0.003)	(0.002)	(0.003)	(0.004)	(0.007)	(0.005)
Not employed	0.029*	0.042**	–0.003	0.042***	0.058***	0.011	0.011	0.060***
	(0.018)	(0.022)	(0.026)	(0.017)	(0.020)	(0.029)	(0.060)	(0.019)
Some high school	–0.028**	–0.016	–0.043**	–0.030**	–0.029*	–0.030	–0.049	–0.071
	(0.016)	(0.017)	(0.023)	(0.015)	(0.018)	(0.024)	(0.077)	(0.051)
Household characteristics
Rural	–0.050**	–0.055***	–0.046	–0.059**	–0.068***	–0.051	–0.039	0.019
	(0.027)	(0.026)	(0.033)	(0.030)	(0.028)	(0.038)	(0.075)	(0.054)
School-age children (7 to 17)	–0.075***	–0.075***	–0.074***	–0.083***	–0.088***	–0.073***	–0.088	–0.107**
	(0.023)	(0.025)	(0.026)	(0.023)	(0.028)	(0.026)	(0.066)	(0.060)
Income	0.122***	0.161***	0.087	0.439**	0.452*	0.437	–0.154***	–0.016
	(0.051)	(0.053)	(0.073)	(0.264)	(0.306)	(0.309)	(0.046)	(0.026)
Income2	–0.009***	–0.011***	–0.007	–0.065*	–0.067	–0.065
	(0.004)	(0.004)	(0.005)	(0.040)	(0.048)	(0.047)
Income3				0.003*	0.003	0.003
				(0.002)	(0.002)	(0.002)
Household grant receipt
Household receives pension	–0.040***	–0.025	–0.056***	–0.026**	–0.020	–0.033	–0.222	–0.052
	(0.018)	(0.021)	(0.022)	(0.016)	(0.019)	(0.024)	(0.188)	(0.059)
Contains residents aged 52 to 56	–0.030	–0.025	–0.029	–0.028	–0.010	–0.045*	–0.083	0.060
	(0.021)	(0.026)	(0.026)	(0.022)	(0.027)	(0.030)	(0.092)	(0.060)
Household receives CSG	–0.035**	–0.040**	–0.034*	–0.025	–0.023	–0.033	–0.258**	–0.007
	(0.021)	(0.023)	(0.022)	(0.022)	(0.024)	(0.023)	(0.138)	(0.044)
Household received housing subsidy	–0.094***	–0.066***	–0.125***	–0.085***	–0.048**	–0.131***	–0.076**
	(0.022)	(0.025)	(0.028)	(0.024)	(0.028)	(0.030)		(0.041)
Subpopulation observations	12 261	6 896	5 365	9 444	5 359	4 085	774	1 890
R-squared	0.0709	0.0811	0.0727	0.0663	0.0780	0.0626	0.214	0.123

Notes: All estimates are weighted using NIDS W1 calibrated cross-sectional weights and take into account survey design – including clusters and strata – using Stata's svy commands. Data reported as the coefficients (standard errors) from ordinary least-squares regressions of an indicator for whether an individual migrated between W1 (2008) and W2 (2010/11). Additional controls include gender, household size, province dummies, high school and post-secondary education dummies, and in the first three columns race dummies. ***p < 0.05, **p < 0.1, *p < 0.15.

Table 5: Determinants of migration by income tercile for Africans aged 18-56 in 2008

	Dependent variable: migrated between W1 and W2
	Tercile one (low income)			Tercile two (middle income)			Tercile three (high income)
	Women and men	Women only	Men only	Women and men	Women only	men only	Women and men	Women only	Men only
Individual characteristics
Wage	0.007	0.011*	0.002	0.007***	0.010**	0.004	0.008***	0.003	0.011**
	(0.006)	(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.003)	(0.005)	(0.006)	(0.004)	(0.005)	(0.006)
Not employed	0.018	0.035	–0.018	0.035*	0.078***	–0.021	0.093***	0.106***	0.061
	(0.026)	(0.031)	(0.040)	(0.023)	(0.030)	(0.040)	(0.036)	(0.043)	(0.057)
Some high school	–0.017	–0.034	0.011	–0.009	–0.002	–0.020	–0.068***	–0.048	–0.077**
	(0.026)	(0.026)	(0.045)	(0.020)	(0.024)	(0.029)	(0.029)	(0.045)	(0.043)
Household characteristics
Household receives pension	0.015	0.011	0.022	–0.046***	–0.051**	–0.035	–0.061*	–0.030	–0.100**
	(0.030)	(0.039)	(0.046)	(0.022)	(0.026)	(0.031)	(0.038)	(0.041)	(0.057)
Household contains residents aged 52 to 56	–0.033	–0.003	–0.076***	–0.026	–0.032	–0.017	–0.042	0.011	–0.082
	(0.032)	(0.040)	(0.035)	(0.028)	(0.033)	(0.046)	(0.049)	(0.055)	(0.068)
Household receives CSG	–0.028	–0.038	–0.032	0.025	0.026	0.025	–0.058**	–0.037	–0.090***
	(0.030)	(0.032)	(0.042)	(0.029)	(0.028)	(0.038)	(0.033)	(0.043)	(0.036)
Household received housing subsidy	–0.009	–0.024	–0.001	–0.077**	–0.059	–0.107***	–0.108***	–0.042	–0.169***
	(0.034)	(0.046)	(0.060)	(0.042)	(0.045)	(0.052)	(0.039)	(0.048)	(0.040)
Rural	–0.032	–0.025	–0.046	–0.049**	–0.045*	–0.049	–0.090***	–0.088***	–0.094***
	(0.028)	(0.030)	(0.038)	(0.027)	(0.029)	(0.034)	(0.034)	(0.033)	(0.041)
Observations	3 228	2 080	1 148	3 142	1 812	1 330	3 074	1 467	1 607
R-squared	0.0608	0.0651	0.0705	0.0628	0.0950	0.0461	0.0608	0.0826	0.0610

Notes: All estimates are weighted using NIDS W1 calibrated cross-sectional weights and take into account survey design – including clusters and strata – using Stata's svy commands. Data report the coefficients (standard errors) from ordinary least-squares regressions of an indicator for whether an individual migrated between W1 (2008) and W2 (2010/11). Additional controls include gender, household size, province dummies, high school and post-secondary education dummies. Household income for prime-age Africans only is ranked and then split into three equal sized income groups. ***p < 0.05, **p < 0.1, *p < 0.15.