The dynamics of household dissolution and change in socio-economic position: A survival model in a rural South Africa

Figures & data

Figure 1: Dynamics of household stability

Table 1: Variables influencing household dissolution

	Univariate (Stata)				Multivariable (Bayesian geostatistical model) (WinBUGS)
Factor	N (%^a)	HR	95% CI	p value	HR	95% CI	Significance^a
Highest household SEP (MCA quintile)
Most poor	1 867 (0.48)	1.00			^c
Very poor	2 097 (0.28)	0.38	0.34 to 0.42	<0.001
Poor	2 404 (0.13)	0.19	0.17 to 0.21	<0.001
Less poor	3 135 (0.07)	0.09	0.08 to 0.10	<0.001
Least poor	4 947 (0.03)	0.04	0.03 to 0.04	<0.001
Unknown	5 986 (0.62)	1.21	1.12 to 1.30	<0.001
Household head demographics
Nationality
South African	13 406 (0.24)	1.00			1.00
Mozambican	6 661 (0.33)	1.69	1.60 to 1.79	<0.001	1.85	1.70, 2.00	*
Gender
Female	7 670 (0.26)	1.00			1.00
Male	12 397(0.3)	1.12	1.06 to 1.19	<0.001	1.04	0.98, 1.11
Age
<40 years	11 692 (0.3)	1.00			1.00
≥40 years	8 657 (0.27)	0.85	0.81 to 0.90	<0.001	1.15	1.07, 1.24	*
Alive	19 105 (0.27)	1.00			1.00
Died (non to HIV/AIDS)	1 214 (0.53)	1.53	1.40 to 1.67	<0.001	1.63^d	1.46, 1.81	*
Died (HIV/AIDS)^b	117 (0.98)	4.67	4.07 to 5.38	<0.001
Household size (continuous)	20 436 (0.29)	0.82	0.81 to 0.82	<0.001	0.83	0.82, 0.83	*
1 to 4	6 043 (0.47)	1.00
5 to 9	7 236 (0.29)	0.36	0.33 to 0.38	<0.001
10+	7 157 (0.13)	0.09	0.08 to 0.10	<0.001
Number of individuals of pension age (65+)^b
No males 65+, females 60+	14 071 (0.31)	1.00			1.00
At least one male 65+ or female 60+	4 831 (0.24)	0.52	0.49 to 0.55	<0.001	0.65	0.60, 0.71	*
Both male and female 65+	1 534 (0.15)	0.27	0.23 to 0.30	<0.001	0.48	0.41, 0.55	*
Total number of education years achieved by occupants	20 436 (0.29)	0.97	0.97 to 0.97	<0.001	1.29^e	1.15, 1.44	*
Household education years categorical
0 to 25	6 883 (0.55)	1.00
26 to 87	6 744 (0.27)	0.21	0.20 to 0.23	<0.001
88+	6 794 (0.04)	0.01	0.01 to 0.02	<0.001
Skip to generational household	385 (0.65)	4.24	3.82 to 4.72	<0.001	1.46	1.22, 1.73	*
Migration patterns
Percentage of occupants that permanently migrated out of site
None	11 673 (0.26)	1.00			6.27^f	5.69, 6.95	*
<10	1 236 (0.06)	0.12	0.09 to 0.15	<0.001
10 to 19	2 054 (0.09)	0.18	0.16 to 0.21	<0.001
20 to 29	1 466 (0.14)	0.30	0.26 to 0.35	<0.001
30 to 39	840 (0.21)	0.43	0.37 to 0.50	<0.001
≥40	3 167 (0.71)	2.45	2.31 to 2.59	<0.001
Household mortality indicators
Percentage of household adults (18+) that died	19 881	1.60	1.34 to 1.91	<0.001	^g
Percentage of household adults (18+) that died of HIV/AIDS	19 881	3.43	2.51 to 4.68	<0.001	1.98	1.38, 2.73	*
Household HIV death proportion (tertiles)^b
0 to 16%	8 159 (0.20)	1.00
17 to 21%	6 645 (0.30)	1.32	1.23 to 1.41	<0.001
22+%	5 632 (0.37)	1.86	1.74 to 1.99	<0.001
Multivariable model parameters
B0	–	–	–	–	–3.15	–3.55, –2.87	–
Range (m)	–	–	–	–	6975	1 877, 20 740	–
Shape parameter (ρ)	–	–	–	–	1.14	1.11, 1.18	–
σ^2 (spatially structured)	–	–	–	–	0.53	0.25, 1.10	–
σ^2 (household unstructured)	–	–	–	–	0.39	0.29, 0.56	–

Notes: CI, confidence interval; HR, hazard ratio; MCA, multiple correspondence analysis. ^aPercentage of households in this category that dissolved. ^bBased on data prior to 2007 because verbal autopsies currently complete up to 2006. ^cSEP was not included due to missing data prior to 2001. ^dHousehold death due to any cause included in the multivariable analysis. ^eNo household education used in the multivariable analysis. ^fPercentage of household permanently outmigrated used in the multivariable analysis. ^gNot included in the multivariable analysis as collinear with deaths due to HIV/AIDS.

Figure 2: Predicted household dissolution by household SEP quintile using Kaplan–Meier analysis

Figure 3: Comparative household dissolution risk (1992–2008)

Figure 4: Spatial risk of household dissolution (1992–2008) in the AHDSS.

Note: ^aHigh risk of dissolution indicated by village number 21 (RDP – Rural Development Program)

Table 2: Village demographics showing the absolute poverty line by village

Village	Number of households^a	Mozambican (%)^a	2001 (%)	2003 (%)	2005 (%)	2007 (%)
1	1 347	16.3	33.9	32.7	25.1	17.6
2	605	20.0	35.8	29.2	21.1	21.7
3	1 172	15.9	40.4	28.8	27.3	17.7
4	684	8.9	38.3	25.7	26.4	17.8
5	622	28.0	31.5	37.2	31.2	21.3
6	723	25.3	30.7	32.4	22.9	23.6
7	438	40.2	42.5	39.8	32.0	28.0
8	1 138	47.7	28.8	31.0	31.6	25.3
9	933	12.0	28.4	23.7	21.2	17.6
10	896	48.5	30.5	27.8	27.2	17.9
11	1 253	31.5	21.7	25.9	15.5	15.0
12	463	77.1	57.2	60.7	32.0	25.1
13	658	10.9	33.8	30.3	23.0	19.4
14	404	4.0	42.9	35.5	27.2	21.4
15	608	38.8	39.3	52.1	33.4	21.7
16	857	5.5	38.4	35.7	30.2	25.7
17	468	97.6	65.0	68.7	41.8	37.7
18	242	95.0	88.6	80.0	82.9	81.4
19	262	96.6	55.2	66.0	74.1	76.4
20	218	81.7	56.0	63.3	50.4	35.7
21	703	7.3	74.6	52.1	39.4	28.9

Note: ^aBased on estimates for 2001–07.