Negative economic shocks and child schooling: Evidence from rural Malawi

Figures & data

Figure 1: Expected private marginal benefits and costs for investment in children's schooling

Figure 2: Expected private marginal benefits and costs for investment in children's schooling (if price effect dominates)

Figure 3: Expected private marginal benefits and costs for investment in children's schooling (if income effect dominates)

Table 1: Basic statistics

		N		Mean		Standard deviation
Variable	Respondent	2006	2008	2006	2008	2006	2008
Child schooling outcomes
Enrolment	Male	1 043	1 138	0.85	0.91	0.35	0.28
	Female	1 448	1 654	0.86	0.89	0.34	0.30
Grade Attainment gap^a	Male	928	1 000	−0.95	−1.85	1.81	1.93
	Female	1 289	1 407	−0.97	−1.93	1.75	1.81
Idiosyncratic negative shocks^b
	Male	1 069	1 148	0.39	0.81	0.49	0.39
	Female	1 506	1 668	0.40	0.84	0.49	0.36
Community-level negative shocks^c	Male	1 069	1 148	0.39	0.82	0.19	0.14
	Female	1 506	1 668	0.40	0.84	0.19	0.14
Control variables
Initial wealth Index	Male	811	1 068	0.32	0.34	1.98	2.02
	Female	1 240	1 581	0.12	0.17	1.93	1.94
Respondent Primary school	Male	1 069	1 148	0.70	0.71	0.46	0.46
	Female	1 506	1 668	0.63	0.65	0.48	0.48
Respondent Secondary school	Male	1 069	1 148	0.15	0.17	0.36	0.37
	Female	1 506	1 668	0.05	0.06	0.23	0.25
Child female	Male	1 069	1 146	0.49	0.49	0.50	0.50
	Female	1 506	1 668	0.49	0.50	0.50	0.50
Child age	Male	1 069	1 148	9.38	10.84	2.49	2.62
	Female	1 506	1 668	9.33	10.8	2.39	2.59

Notes: ^aDifference between ‘age at which the present completed grades of schooling should be completed’ and ‘actual age when present completed grades of schooling by child’.

^bFor childless women, the mean values of idiosyncratic shocks are 0.4 and 0.6 for 2006 and 2008 respectively. The mean values of community-level shocks are 0.4 and 0.79 in 2006 and 2008 respectively for these women. Male respondents in agriculture reported 0.73 and 0.74 for idiosyncratic or community shocks and male respondents in occupations other than agriculture reported mean values of 0.38 for both idiosyncratic and community shocks. However, the MLSFH is implemented only in rural sites of Malawi and thus 80% of male respondents are in agriculture. We have also checked for responses about all variables in this table by younger versus older cohorts of men and women, but responses do not differ; thus those statistics are not reported here but the lead author can provide those statistics on request.

^cAverages (if household experienced any shock) for all households in the community; thus lies between zero and one.

Table 2: Mean and standard deviation for enrolment rates, grade attainment gaps and current grades by child age

		Enrolment				Grade attainment				Current grade
		Mean		Standard deviation		Mean		Standard deviation		Mean		Standard deviation
Year	Res_Gender	2006	2008	2006	2008	2006	2008	2006	2008	2006	2008	2006	2008
Overall	Male	0.85	0.91	0.35	0.28	−.95	−1.85	1.81	1.93	2.49	3.24	1.85	2.48
	Female	0.86	0.89	0.34	0.30	−0.97	−1.93	1.75	1.81	2.48	3.17	3.11	2.61
By child age
6	Male	0.66	0.70	0.47	0.46	1.15	1.11	0.40	0.32	0.77	0.89	0.63	1.75
	Female	0.63	0.64	0.48	0.48	1.11	1.06	0.34	0.24	0.83	0.57	0.84	0.56
7	Male	0.82	0.81	0.38	0.39	0.57	0.57	0.77	0.69	1.38	1.27	1.06	1.25
	Female	0.83	0.84	0.36	0.36	0.45	0.36	0.71	0.57	1.35	1.21	1.05	1.77
8	Male	0.86	0.92	0.34	0.27	−0.16	−0.33	0.88	0.88	1.68	1.60	0.98	1.61
	Female	0.89	0.87	0.30	0.33	−0.28	−0.48	0.85	0.64	2.13	1.13	7.17	0.86
9	Male	0.91	0.91	0.29	0.27	−0.76	−0.88	1.11	1.01	2.20	1.92	1.52	1.25
	Female	0.90	0.92	0.29	0.27	−0.67	−1.06	1.09	0.96	2.31	1.91	1.51	1.45
10	Male	0.88	0.95	0.32	0.20	−1.18	−1.40	1.36	1.17	2.78	4.46	1.65	3.90
	Female	0.91	0.97	0.27	0.18	−1.29	−1.40	1.25	1.19	2.66	4.75	1.48	4.10
11	Male	0.92	0.96	0.27	0.17	−1.58	−1.88	1.35	1.40	3.28	3.06	1.49	1.44
	Female	0.89	0.95	0.31	0.20	−1.73	−2.02	1.49	1.33	3.06	2.90	1.64	1.57
12	Male	0.92	0.94	0.27	0.23	−2.22	−2.46	1.64	1.56	3.84	3.44	1.79	1.64
	Female	0.93	0.92	0.25	0.27	−2.07	−2.54	1.42	1.49	3.80	3.39	1.56	1.69
13	Male	0.90	0.92	0.29	0.26	−2.56	−2.73	1.57	1.57	4.32	4.17	1.70	1.67
	Female	0.92	0.88	0.27	0.32	−2.47	−3	1.62	1.74	4.38	3.79	1.77	1.91
14	Male	0.91	0.90	0.28	0.29	−3.12	−3.16	1.67	1.79	4.87	4.66	1.67	1.97
	Female	0.83	0.87	0.37	0.33	−3.71	−3.08	1.84	1.59	4.02	4.63	2.06	1.92
15	Male	0.88	0.90	0.33	0.30	−4.5	−3.70	1.86	2.20	4.5	5.03	1.86	2.44
	Female	0.82	0.86	0.39	0.34	−4.58	−3.63	2.59	1.90	4.41	5.09	2.59	2.19

Table 3: Marginal effects of probit estimates with child-level random effects for current enrolment for children aged six to 15 years

Variables	Male respondents			Female respondents
	Model 1 (dy/dx)	Model 2 (dy/dx)	Model 3 (dy/dx)	Model 4 (dy/dx)	Model 5 (dy/dx)	Model 6 (dy/dx)
Idiosyncratic negative shock	−0.29** (0.126)		−0.21 (0.139)	−0.03 (0.100)		0.05 (0.107)
Aggregate community-level negative shock		−0.71* (0.335)	−0.46 (0.371)		−0.58* (0.272)	−0.63* (0.290)
Control variables
Initial wealth index	0.07* (0.035)	0.07** (0.035)	0.07* (0.035)	0.12*** (0.028)	0.12*** (0.028)	0.13*** (0.028)
Respondent primary school	0.44** (0.149)	0.42** (0.149)	0.43** (0.149)	0.76*** (0.101)	0.74*** (0.101)	0.74*** (0.101)
Respondent secondary school	0.83*** (0.242)	0.81*** (0.242)	0.81*** (0.242)	0.63** (0.237)	0.57* (0.239)	0.57* (0.24)
Child age	1.14*** (0.172)	1.14*** (0.171)	1.14*** (0.172)	1.20*** (0.138)	1.21*** (0.139)	1.21*** (0.139)
Child age squared	−0.05*** (0.0082)	−0.05*** (0.008)	−0.05*** (0.008)	−0.05*** (0.006)	−0.05*** (0.006)	−0.05*** (0.006)
Child female	0.02 (0.119)	0.024 (0.118)	0.03 (0.119)	−0.03 (0.090)	−0.03 (0.091)	−0.03 (0.091)
Year = 2008	0.39*** (0.121)	0.57*** (0.182)	0.56** (0.182)	0.10 (0.095)	0.34* (0.146)	0.34* (0.146)
Number of observations	1 849	1 849	1 849	2 758	2 758	2 758
Number of groups	1 083	1 083	1 083	1 614	1 614	1 614

Notes: Standard errors in parentheses. Marginal effects for continuous variables are evaluated at the variable means. Those for dummy variables are evaluated for the discrete change from zero to one. In Model 3, the coefficient estimates for ‘idiosyncratic negative shock’ and ‘aggregate community-level negative shock’ are jointly significant at the 5% level of significance (χ²(2) = 6.77).

*t significant at p < 0.05.

**t significant at p < 0.01.

***t significant at p < 0.001.

Table 4: Impact of estimates of one standard deviation changes in initial wealth index, respondent primary and secondary school^a

Variable	Male respondents			Female respondents
	Model 1 (dy/dx)	Model 2 (dy/dx)	Model 3 (dy/dx)	Model 4 (dy/dx)	Model 5 (dy/dx)	Model 6 (dy/dx)
Idiosyncratic negative shock	−0.29**		−0.21	−0.03		0.05
Aggregate community level negative shock		−0.71*	−0.46		−0.58*	−0.63*
Control variables
One SD change in initial wealth index	0.14	0.14	0.14	0.23	0.23	0.23
One SD change in respondent primary school	0.20	0.19	0.20	0.36	0.36	0.36
One SD change in respondent secondary school	0.30	0.30	0.30	0.15	0.14	0.14

Notes: ^aEstimated impacts of one standard deviation (SD, taking the average for the two rounds from Table 1) changes in the wealth index and in respondent schooling based on the coefficient estimates in Table 3.

*t significant at p < 0.05.

**t significant at p < 0.01 in Table 3.

Table 5: Regression estimates with child-level random effects for grade attainment gap for children aged six to 15 years

Variable	Male respondents			Female respondents
	Model 1	Model 2	Model 3	Model 4	Model 5	Model 6
Idiosyncratic negative shock	−0.03 (0.09)		0.03 (0.11)	0.2 (0.07)		0.04 (0.08)
Aggregate community-level negative shock)		−0.36 (0.27)	−0.40 (0.29)		−0.23 (0.20)	−0.27 (0.21)
Control variables
Initial wealth index	0.17*** (0.03)	0.17*** (0.03)	0.17*** (0.03)	0.19*** (0.02)	0.19*** (0.02)	0.19*** (0.02)
Respondent primary school	0.34** (0.145)	0.33** (0.145)	0.33** (0.145)	0.38*** (0.09)	0.37*** (0.09)	0.37*** (0.09)
Respondent secondary school	0.77*** (0.196)	0.75*** (0.197)	0.75*** (0.197)	0.97*** (0.21)	0.94*** (0.21)	0.95*** (0.21)
Child age	−0.71*** (0.141)	−0.72*** (0.141)	−0.72*** (0.141)	−0.77*** (0.107)	−0.76*** (0.107)	−0.77*** (0.107)
Child age squared	0.011* (0.006)	0.01* (0.006)	0.011* (0.006)	0.14** (0.005)	0.014** (0.005)	0.014** (0.005)
Child female	0.15 (0.103)	0.14 (0.103)	0.14 (0.103)	0.18** (0.08)	0.18** (0.08)	0.18** (0.09)
Year = 2008	−0.49*** (0.092)	−0.34** (0.143)	−0.34** (0.143)	−0.54*** (0.069)	−0.43*** (0.106)	−0.44*** (0.107)
Constant	4.13*** (0.74)	4.3*** (0.75)	4.31*** (0.76)	4.26*** (0.56)	4.34*** (0.57)	4.34*** (0.57)
Statistics
Sigma_u	1.17	1.16	1.16	1.39	1.39	1.39
Sigma_e	1.46	1.46	1.46	1.20	1.20	1.20
Rho	0.39	0.38	0.38	0.57	0.57	0.57
Number of observations	1 673	1 673	1 673	2 474	2 474	2 474
Number of groups	1 023	1 023	1 023	1 510	1 510	1 510

Notes: Standard errors in parentheses. *t significant at p < 0.05.

**t significant at p < 0.01.

***t significant at p < 0.001.