A diagnostic approach to intra-metropolitan spatial targeting: Evidence from Cape Town, South Africa

Figures & data

Figure 1: Map of Cape Town business districts

Table 1: Market performance indicators

Sub-indicators	Detail	Source
Industrial rentals (2013) Industrial rental growth (2005–13)	Prime industrial rentals, R/m^2, for 1000 m^2	Rode & Assoc.
Office rentals (2013) Office rental growth (2005–13)	Average prime office for Grade A office, R/m^2
Street-front rental (2013)	Average R/m2 rental for 100 m^2
Shopping centre rental (2013)	Average gross rental (R/m^2)	Corporate reports
Industrial vacancy (2013)	Industrial stand vacancies	Rode & Assoc.
Office vacancy (2013)	As % of Grade A office stock	South African Property Owners Association
Building development completed (2005–13)	Internal floor space added, by m^2; includes new build industrial, office, shopping; and non-residential additions and alterations	City of Cape Town
Building plans received (2012–13)	Internal floor space to be added, by m^2; includes new build industrial, office, shopping; and non-residential additions and alteration	City of Cape Town
Number of property sales/overall number of properties (2005–13)	Single-dwelling residential properties excluded	Deeds Office
Industrial vacant land sales (2005–13)	By value and number of sales

Table 2: Location potential indicators

Sub-indicators	Detail	Source
Existing internal floor space of non-residential building stock	Gross internal floor space for office, street-front and shopping centre retail, industrial and warehousing	City of Cape Town Municipal Valuations Roll
Aggregate property value	Aggregate value of improved industrial and commercial properties
Property value intensity	Same as above, normalised by geographic extent (m^2)
Count of improved industrial and commercial property parcels	Includes sectional title properties
Estimated number of work spaces	Based on employment density function
Projected additional bulk supply	Available future bulk for commercial and industrial activity between 2012 and 2032 as identified by district planners	City of Cape Town Urban Growth Model
Extent and affordability of vacant industrial land	Extent of vacant, serviced land zoned for industrial activity	Municipal valuations roll (Rode & Assoc.)
Travel distance to regional markets and freight corridor gateways	Average of peak and off-peak travel distance and travel time	Tomtom Live Traffic data
Road congestion	Average difference between peak and off-peak travel time
Public transport connectivity and level of service	Level of public transport connectivity, and operations (frequency and capacity)	City of Cape Town Interchange Classification 2012
Infrastructure capacity	Level of constraint on the following infrastructure networks: electricity, water reticulation, waste water treatment capacity, sewer and storm water	City of Cape Town
Security	Incidence of burglaries and robberies reported by businesses, normalised by number of business parcels	Derived from statistics published by South African Police Service
Skills catchment	Number of workers with higher education qualifications, and postgraduate workers, within 5 km radius	Census 2011
Morning commuter arrivals	Number of morning arrivals (by all modes)	City of Cape Town Transport Model
Income catchment	Aggregate and per-capita disposable income within 5 km radius	Census 2011

Figure 2: XY scatterplot showing the results for Cape Town

Figure 3: Classification of business districts

Figure 4: Propulsive drivers of business district transformation

Figure 5: Hypothesised sources of deviation from equilibrium

Figure 6: Prioritisation framework for spatial targeting