Quantifying shifts in primary factor demand in the South African economy

Figures & data

Table 1. Annual percentage change to selected exogenous variables (2007–13).

	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013*
Macro variables
Real GDP (x0gdpexp)	5.5	3.6	−1.5	3.1	3.6	2.5	2.0
Real Consumption (x3tot)	5.5	2.2	−1.6	4.4	4.8	3.5	2.4
Real Investment (x2tot_i)	14.0	14.1	−3.2	−2.0	4.5	5.7	4.1
Real Government (x5tot)	3.9	4.5	4.6	5.0	4.6	4.2	3.3
Real Imports (x0cif_c)	9.0	1.5	−17.4	9.6	9.7	6.3	7.2
Real Exports (x4tot)	6.6	1.8	−19.5	4.5	5.9	0.1	6.0
Government/Consumption Ratio (f5tot)	−1.5	2.2	6.3	1.1	−0.5	0.5	1.0
Consumer Price Index (p3tot)	6.1	9.9	7.1	4.3	5.0	5.7	5.9
Real Wages (real_wage_c)	1.0	2.5	2.5	3.0	1.0	1.5	1.5
Terms of Trade (p0toft)	1.6	−0.1	8.0	7.2	2.3	−2.2	0.5
Nominal Exchange Rate (phi)	−4.6	−13.4	−2.3	14.0	1.3	−11.9	−10.0
Labour Employed (emp_jobs)	0.4	2.0	−3.0	−1.5	1.5	0.5	0.5
Capital Stock (x1cap)	1.7	2.9	4.0	3.5	3.0	3.1	3.4
Industry variables
Gold Price (p4)	31.0	4.0	25.0	30.5	7.5	8.5	−15.0
Gold Output (x4)	−5.5	−15.0	−6.0	−4.0	−4.0	−10.0	−5.0
Electricity Price (p0dom)	5.1	27.5	31.3	24.8	25.8	16.0	8.0
Electricity Output (z)	4.0	−1.0	−2.0	4.0	2.0	2.0	4.0

Note: Pseudo-exogenous variables – that is, variables whose net change in any given period are determined by the exogenous variables – are shown in italics.

Source: South African Reserve Bank (SARB), StatsSA, National Treasury, Eskom, *UPGEM simulation results.

Table 2. Cumulative percentage change to selected exogenous variables (2007–13).

	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013*
Macro variables
Real GDP (x0gdpexp)	5.5	9.3	7.6	11.0	15.0	17.9	20.2
Real Consumption (x3tot)	5.5	7.8	6.1	10.7	16.1	20.1	23.0
Real Investment (x2tot_i)	14.0	30.1	25.9	23.4	28.9	36.3	41.9
Real Government (x5tot)	3.9	8.6	13.5	19.2	24.7	30.0	34.2
Real Imports (x0cif_c)	9.0	10.6	−8.6	0.2	9.9	16.8	25.2
Real Exports (x4tot)	6.6	8.5	−12.6	−8.7	−3.3	−3.2	2.6
Government/Consumption Ratio (f5tot)	−1.5	0.7	7.0	7.6	7.5	8.1	9.2
Consumer Price Index (p3tot)	6.1	16.6	24.9	30.2	36.7	44.5	53.1
Real Wages (real_wage_c)	1.0	3.5	6.1	9.3	10.4	12.0	13.7
Terms of Trade (p0toft)	1.6	1.5	9.6	17.5	20.2	17.5	18.1
Nominal Exchange Rate (phi)	−4.6	−17.4	−19.3	−8.0	−6.8	−17.9	−26.1
Labour Employed (emp_jobs)	0.4	2.4	−0.6	−2.1	−0.7	−0.2	0.3
Capital Stock (x1cap)	1.7	4.7	8.9	12.7	16.0	19.5	23.4
Industry variables
Gold Price (p4)	31.0	36.2	70.3	122.2	138.9	159.2	120.3
Gold Output (x4)	−5.5	−19.6	−24.5	−27.5	−30.4	−37.4	−40.5
Electricity Price (p0dom)	5.1	34.0	75.9	119.6	176.2	220.4	246.0
Electricity Output (z)	4.0	2.9	0.9	4.9	7.0	9.1	13.5

Note: Pseudo-exogenous variables – that is, variables whose net change in any given period are determined by the exogenous variables – are shown in italics.

Source: SARB, StatsSA, National Treasury, Eskom, *UPGEM simulation results.

Figure 1. Cumulative percentage change to trade, capital and labour variables (2007–13)

Source: SARB, StatsSA.

Figure 2. Cumulative percentage change to selected price variables (2007–13)

Source: SARB, StatsSA, UPGEM simulation results.

Table 3. Annual percentage change to selected endogenous variables (2007–13).

	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013*
Endogenous macro variables
Factor productivity (ff_a1prim)*	5.0	3.3	−2.0	1.3	2.1	1.4	0.8
Import/domestic pref (twist_c)	2.5	−8.1	−31.1	5.8	4.9	8.0	2.0
Export demand shift (f4gen)	6.1	−1.8	−7.5	20.7	10.2	−5.9	5.3
Labour/capital preference (twist_i)	3.2	1.0	11.2	5.6	0.8	2.3	2.9
Endogenous industry variables
Gold export demand shift (f4q)	20.6	−25.4	41.4	31.5	−5.3	−8.9	−34.5
Gold factor productivity (f_a1prim)*	16.7	18.9	4.3	10.3	10.8	13.8	−1.1

Source: *UPGEM simulation results.

Table 4. Cumulative percentage change to selected endogenous variables (2007–13).

	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013*
Endogenous macro variables
Factor productivity (ff_a1prim)*	5.0	8.3	6.4	7.6	9.6	10.9	11.6
Import/domestic pref (twist_c)	2.5	−5.8	−35.1	−31.3	−27.9	−22.2	−20.7
Export demand shift (f4gen)	6.1	4.2	−3.6	16.3	28.1	20.5	26.9
Labour/capital preference (twist_i)	3.2	4.2	15.9	22.4	23.4	26.4	30.0
Endogenous industry variables
Gold export demand shift (f4q)	20.6	−10.8	27.1	67.3	58.4	44.2	−5.5
Gold factor productivity (f_a1prim)*	−16.7	−38.7	−44.7	−59.6	−76.9	−101.2	−99.0

Source: *UPGEM simulation results.