The South African labour market, 1995–2015

Figures & data

Figure 1. Number of employed and unemployed, 1995–2015. Note: OHS = October Household Survey; LFS = Labour Force Survey; QLFS = Quarterly Labour Force Survey.Source: Authors’ own calculations using OHS 1995–99, LFS 2000–07 and QLFS 2008Q1–2015Q3 data.

Figure 2. Unemployment rates, 1995–2015. Note: OHS = October Household Survey; LFS = Labour Force Survey; QLFS = Quarterly Labour Force Survey.Source: Authors’ own calculations using OHS 1995–99, LFS 2000–07 and QLFS 2008Q1–2015Q3 data.

Table 1. Labour force under the narrow definition: OHS 1995, LFS 2005 and QLFS 2015.

		LF number (1 000s)			Share (%)			Share of change (%)			LFPR (%)
		OHS 1995	LFS 2005	QLFS 2015	OHS 1995	LFS 2005	QLFS 2015	1995 to 2005	2005 to 2015	1995 to 2015	OHS 1995	LFS 2005	QLFS 2015
Total	Total	11 528	16 770	21 283	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	47.7	56.5	58.5
Race	African	7 829	12 403	16 460	67.9	74.0	77.3	87.2	89.9	88.5	43.1	53.9	56.9
	Coloured	1 362	1 712	2 121	11.8	10.2	10.0	6.7	9.1	7.8	60.1	63.9	63.2
	Indian	401	523	578	3.5	3.1	2.7	2.3	1.2	1.8	56.3	62.7	58.4
	White	1 936	2 097	2 125	16.8	12.5	10.0	3.1	0.6	1.9	63.3	67.8	67.9
Gender	Male	6 713	9 103	11 674	58.2	54.3	54.9	45.6	57.0	50.9	58.2	63.7	65.2
	Female	4 815	7 661	9 609	41.8	45.7	45.1	54.3	43.2	49.1	38.0	49.9	52.0
Age	15 to 24 years	1 770	2 914	2 761	15.4	17.4	13.0	21.8	−3.4	10.2	21.7	30.7	26.8
	25 to 34 years	4 097	5 957	7 122	35.5	35.5	33.5	35.5	25.8	31.0	63.9	74.8	75.0
	35 to 44 years	3 224	3 970	6 096	28.0	23.7	28.6	14.2	47.1	29.4	69.6	75.4	79.8
	45 to 54 years	1 740	2 728	3 705	15.1	16.3	17.4	18.9	21.7	20.2	62.7	69.1	71.7
	55 to 65 years	697	1 202	1 599	6.0	7.2	7.5	9.6	8.8	9.2	31.7	40.3	42.1
	18 to 29 years	3 716	5 780	6 273	32.2	34.5	29.5	39.4	10.9	26.2	41.3	53.7	51.7
Province	WC	1 570	2 126	2 923	13.6	18.9	13.7	30.6	−5.5	13.9	61.7	67.0	67.6
	EC	1 212	1 925	1 939	10.5	23.7	9.1	52.8	−45.3	7.5	35.8	48.4	46.7
	NC	267	305	463	2.3	3.4	2.2	5.7	−2.2	2.0	52.9	54.1	60.0
	FS	858	1 141	1 162	7.4	11.4	5.5	20.1	−16.6	3.1	52.3	59.7	61.6
	KZN	2 160	3 237	3 245	18.7	36.1	15.2	74.2	−62.1	11.1	44.0	53.5	47.9
	NW	905	1 276	1 237	7.9	14.4	5.8	28.8	−26.1	3.4	45.1	52.9	50.5
	GAU	3 130	4 452	7 039	27.1	38.5	33.1	63.3	13.1	40.1	61.9	69.0	72.9
	MPU	699	1 063	1 607	6.1	11.7	7.5	24.1	−7.9	9.3	43.0	54.1	57.7
	LIM	726	1 246	1 668	6.3	18.8	7.8	46.4	−33.0	9.7	28.8	39.4	46.3
Area type	Urban	7 597	12 398	15 961	65.9	73.9	75.0	91.6	78.9	85.7	56.4	64.5	66.5
	Rural	3 930	4 372	5 322	34.1	26.1	25.0	8.4	21.1	14.3	36.7	41.9	43.0
Education	None	912	866	479	7.9	5.2	2.3	−0.9	−8.6	−4.4	40.1	44.1	38.7
	Incomplete primary	1 913	2 135	1 541	16.6	12.7	7.2	4.2	−13.2	−3.8	46.8	49.8	46.4
	Incomplete secondary	4 682	6 972	8 652	40.6	41.6	40.7	43.7	37.2	40.7	40.0	48.5	48.9
	Matric	2 533	4 661	6 785	22.0	27.8	31.9	40.6	47.1	43.6	61.4	71.8	70.7
	Matric + certificate/diploma	939	1 208	1 828	8.1	7.2	8.6	5.1	13.7	9.1	78.1	85.6	84.2
	Degree	456	813	1 789	4.0	4.9	8.4	6.8	21.6	13.7	82.0	85.4	88.0
	Other/not specified	92	113	209	0.8	0.7	1.0	0.4	2.1	1.2	41.6	66.9	62.4

Note: LF = labour force; LFPR = labour force participation rate; OHS = October Household Survey; LFS = Labour Force Survey; QLFS = Quarterly Labour Force Survey; WC = Western Cape; EC = Eastern Cape; NC = Northern Cape; FS = Free State; KZN = KwaZulu Natal; NW = North West; GAU = Gauteng; MPU = Mpumalanga; LIM = Limpopo.

Source: Authors’ own calculations using the OHS 1995, LFS 2005 September and QLFS 2015Q3 data.

Table 2. Employment: OHS 1995, LFS 2005 and QLFS 2015.

		Employed (1 000s)			Share (%)			Share of change (%)			1995–2015
		OHS 1995	LFS 2005	QLFS 2015	OHS 1995	LFS 2005	QLFS 2015	1995 to 2005	2005 to 2015	1995 to 2015	TGR (%)	AGR (%)	EAR (%)
Total	Total	9 499	12 288	15 867	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	102.7	67.0	65.3
Race	African	6 136	8 498	11 724	64.6	69.2	73.9	84.7	90.1	87.7	140.6	91.1	64.7
	Coloured	1 145	1 328	1 637	12.1	10.8	10.3	6.6	8.7	7.7	66.3	43.0	64.9
	Indian	359	440	506	3.8	3.6	3.2	2.9	1.8	2.3	49.4	41.0	83.0
	White	1 860	1 991	2 001	19.6	16.2	12.6	4.7	0.3	2.2	10.2	7.6	74.4
Gender	Male	5 789	7 048	8 936	60.9	57.4	56.3	45.1	52.8	49.4	85.7	54.4	63.4
	Female	3 710	5 236	6 930	39.1	42.6	43.7	54.7	47.3	50.6	129.2	86.8	67.2
Age	15 to 24 years	1 124	1 415	1 382	11.8	11.5	8.7	10.4	−0.9	4.0	88.1	22.9	26.0
	25 to 34 years	3 276	4 150	4 966	34.5	33.8	31.3	31.3	22.8	26.5	92.4	51.6	55.9
	35 to 44 years	2 858	3 249	4 895	30.1	26.4	30.8	14.0	46.0	32.0	100.5	71.3	70.9
	45 to 54 years	1 587	2 373	3 184	16.7	19.3	20.1	28.2	22.7	25.1	123.9	100.7	81.3
	55 to 65 years	654	1 102	1 440	6.9	9.0	9.1	16.0	9.5	12.3	137.9	120.1	87.1
	18 to 29 years	2 634	3 238	3 686	27.7	26.4	23.2	21.7	12.5	16.5	97.1	40.0	41.2
Province	WC	1 353	1 724	2 320	14.2	14.0	14.6	13.3	16.7	15.2	100.0	71.4	71.5
	EC	917	1 350	1 373	9.7	11.0	8.7	15.5	0.6	7.2	79.3	49.8	62.8
	NC	213	230	303	2.2	1.9	1.9	0.6	2.0	1.4	92.1	42.1	45.7
	FS	752	796	796	7.9	6.5	5.0	1.6	0.0	0.7	40.4	5.9	14.5
	KZN	1 713	2 175	2 581	18.0	17.7	16.3	16.6	11.3	13.6	63.3	50.7	80.1
	NW	749	927	923	7.9	7.5	5.8	6.4	−0.1	2.7	44.3	23.2	52.4
	GAU	2 637	3 439	5 027	27.8	28.0	31.7	28.8	44.4	37.5	148.3	90.6	61.1
	MPU	584	777	1 187	6.1	6.3	7.5	6.9	11.4	9.5	155.5	103.3	66.4
	LIM	581	871	1 356	6.1	7.1	8.5	10.4	13.6	12.2	162.1	133.4	82.3
Area type	Urban	6 309	9 283	11 926	66.4	75.5	75.2	106.6	73.9	88.2	132.6	89.0	67.2
	Rural	3 190	3 005	3 940	33.6	24.5	24.8	−6.6	26.1	11.8	43.6	23.5	53.9
Education	None	771	709	389	8.1	5.8	2.5	−2.2	−8.9	−6.0	−56.1	−49.5	88.2
	Incomplete primary	1 539	1 573	1 231	16.2	12.8	7.8	1.2	−9.6	−4.8	−24.2	−20.0	82.6
	Incomplete secondary	3 682	4 698	5 906	38.8	38.2	37.2	36.4	33.8	34.9	107.8	60.4	56.0
	Matric	2 093	3 348	4 944	22.0	27.2	31.2	45.0	44.6	44.8	203.2	136.2	67.0
	Matric + certificate/diploma	889	1 080	1 538	9.4	8.8	9.7	6.9	12.8	10.2	100.0	73.1	73.1
	Degree	445	783	1 670	4.7	6.4	10.5	12.1	24.8	19.2	299.6	275.5	91.9
	Other/not specified	81	95	187	0.9	0.8	1.2	0.5	2.6	1.7	N/A	N/A	N/A

Note: OHS = October Household Survey; LFS = Labour Force Survey; QLFS = Quarterly Labour Force Survey; TGR = target growth rate; AGR = actual growth rate; EAR = employment absorption rate; WC = Western Cape; EC = Eastern Cape; NC = Northern Cape; FS = Free State; KZN = KwaZulu Natal; NW = North West; GAU = Gauteng; MPU = Mpumalanga; LIM = Limpopo.

Source: Authors’ own calculations using the OHS 1995, LFS 2005 September and QLFS 2015Q3 data.

Figure 3. Annual percentage growth of employment versus annual percentage growth of real gross value added (2010 prices) by industry, 1995–2015. Note: OHS = October Household Survey; LFS = Labour Force Survey; QLFS = Quarterly Labour Force Survey.Source: Authors’ own calculations using OHS 1995, QLFS 2015Q3 and South African Reserve Bank Quarterly Bulletin data.

Table 3. Employment elasticity to economic growth.

	Employment elasticity to economic growth
	OHS 1995	LFS 2005	QLFS 2015
Employment	9 499 347	12 287 798	15 866 852
Real GDP (seasonally adjusted, 2010 prices, R million)	1 707 524	2 381 486	3 046 807
	1995 vs. 2005	2005 vs. 2015	1995 vs. 2015
Annual percentage change of employment	29.4%	29.1%	67.0%
Annual percentage change of real GDP	39.5%	27.9%	78.4%
ΔEmployment/Δreal GDP	0.74	1.04	0.85

Note: GDP = gross domestic product; OHS = October Household Survey; LFS = Labour Force Survey; QLFS = Quarterly Labour Force Survey.

Source: Authors’ own calculations using the OHS 1995, LFS 2005 September and QLFS 2015Q3 data as well as the South African Reserve Bank Quarterly Bulletin data.

Table 4. Heckprobit regression on employment likelihood, conditional on labour force participation.

	OHS 1995		LFS 2005		QLFS 2015
	Marginal effects	X-bar	Marginal effects	X-bar	Marginal effects	X-bar
Female	0.0419***	0.4306	0.0526***	0.4795	0.0285***	0.4737
Coloured	0.0204***	0.1668	0.0429***	0.1554	0.0826***	0.0986
Indian	0.0763***	0.0461	0.1473***	0.0249	0.1554***	0.0256
White	0.1166***	0.1742	0.2163***	0.0888	0.2036***	0.0800
Age 25 to 34 years	−0.1148***	0.3260	−0.2467***	0.3054	−0.1279***	0.3332
Age 35 to 44 years	−0.0667***	0.2829	−0.1514***	0.2593	−0.0424***	0.2643
Age 45 to 54 years	−0.0093	0.1726	−0.0247*	0.1776	0.0370**	0.1859
Age 55 to 65 years	0.1092***	0.0735	0.1990***	0.0759	0.1937***	0.0820
Urban	−0.0583***	0.6091	−0.0933***	0.6403	−0.0517***	0.7436
WC	0.0119*	0.1350	0.0619***	0.1366	−0.0231*	0.1171
NC	−0.0147	0.0469	0.0491***	0.0670	−0.1116***	0.0436
FS	0.0378***	0.1061	−0.0230**	0.0780	−0.0645***	0.0599
KZN	0.0030	0.1911	0.0065	0.2393	0.1077***	0.1411
NW	0.0299***	0.0772	0.0157	0.0769	0.0435***	0.0539
GAU	−0.0035	0.1445	−0.0157	0.1408	−0.1121***	0.3257
MPU	0.0276***	0.0891	0.0129	0.0749	−0.0120	0.0754
LIM	0.0371***	0.0665	0.0576***	0.0699	0.1019***	0.0790
Education spline: none to incomplete primary	−0.0040***	5.2012	−0.0127***	5.3215	−0.0084***	5.7272
Education spline: incomplete secondary	0.0018	2.8317	−0.0104***	3.0468	−0.0193***	3.8878
Education spline: Matric	−0.0647***	0.3310	−0.1154***	0.3457	−0.0152*	0.4728
Education spline: Matric + certificate/diploma	0.0674***	0.1222	0.0772***	0.0988	0.0423***	0.1598
Education spline: degree	0.0126	0.0408	0.1036***	0.0335	0.0807***	0.0761
Lambda	−0.3095***	0.6255	−0.5889***	0.5867	−0.4179***	0.4934
Number of observations	37 189		35 534		25 757
Observed probability	0.8241		0.7327		0.7455
Predicted probability at x-bar	0.8861		0.7759		0.7679
Chi-squared statistic	6 611		7 403		3 987
Prob > chi-squared	0.0000		0.0000		0.0000
Pseudo R^2	0.1971		0.1777		0.1333

Notes: ***Significant at 1%. **Significant at 5%. *Significant at 10%. WC = Western Cape; EC = Eastern Cape; NC = Northern Cape; FS = Free State; KZN = KwaZulu Natal; NW = North West; GAU = Gauteng; MPU = Mpumalanga; LIM = Limpopo.

Source: Authors’ own calculations using the OHS 1995, LFS 2005 September and QLFS 2015Q3 data.

The marginal effect in this table represents the change in y for each unit change in x from its mean value (x-bar), holding other variables constant. OHS = October Household Survey; LFS = Labour Force Survey; QLFS = Quarterly Labour Force Survey.

Table 5. Unemployment under the narrow definition.

		Unemployed (1 000s)			Share (%)			Share of change (%)			Unemployment rate (%)
		OHS 1995	LFS 2005	QLFS 2015	OHS 1995	LFS 2005	QLFS 2015	1995 to 2005	2005 to 2015	1995 to 2015	OHS 1995	LFS 2005	QLFS 2015
Total	Total	2 028	4 482	5 416	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	17.6	26.7	25.4
Race	African	1 693	3 906	4 736	83.5	87.1	87.4	90.2	88.9	89.8	21.6	31.5	28.8
	Coloured	217	384	483	10.7	8.6	8.9	6.8	10.6	7.9	15.9	22.4	22.8
	Indian	42	82	73	2.1	1.8	1.3	1.6	−1.0	0.9	10.6	15.8	12.6
	White	76	106	124	3.7	2.4	2.3	1.2	2.0	1.4	3.9	5.0	5.8
Gender	Male	924	2 055	2 738	45.5	45.8	50.5	46.1	73.1	53.5	13.8	22.6	23.5
	Female	1 105	2 425	2 679	54.5	54.1	49.5	53.8	27.2	46.5	22.9	31.7	27.9
Age	15 to 24 years	646	1 499	1 378	31.8	33.4	25.4	34.8	−12.9	21.6	36.5	51.4	49.9
	25 to 34 years	821	1 807	2 157	40.5	40.3	39.8	40.2	37.4	39.4	20.0	30.3	30.3
	35 to 44 years	366	721	1 201	18.0	16.1	22.2	14.5	51.4	24.6	11.4	18.2	19.7
	45 to 54 years	153	355	521	7.5	7.9	9.6	8.3	17.8	10.9	8.8	13.0	14.1
	55 to 65 years	43	100	159	2.1	2.2	2.9	2.3	6.3	3.4	6.1	8.3	9.9
	18 to 29 years	1 082	2 542	2 586	53.4	56.7	47.7	59.5	4.8	44.4	29.1	44.0	41.2
Province	WC	216	402	603	10.7	9.0	11.1	7.6	21.5	11.4	13.8	18.9	20.6
	EC	294	575	565	14.5	12.8	10.4	11.4	−1.0	8.0	24.3	29.9	29.1
	NC	55	75	161	2.7	1.7	3.0	0.9	9.2	3.1	20.4	24.7	34.7
	FS	106	345	366	5.2	7.7	6.8	9.7	2.2	7.7	12.4	30.3	31.5
	KZN	448	1 061	664	22.1	23.7	12.3	25.0	−42.6	6.4	20.7	32.8	20.5
	NW	156	349	314	7.7	7.8	5.8	7.9	−3.8	4.7	17.2	27.4	25.4
	GAU	493	1 013	2 012	24.3	22.6	37.2	21.2	106.9	44.9	15.7	22.8	28.6
	MPU	115	286	420	5.7	6.4	7.8	6.9	14.4	9.0	16.5	26.9	26.1
	LIM	145	375	312	7.2	8.4	5.8	9.4	−6.8	4.9	20.0	30.1	18.7
Area	Urban	1 288	3 116	4 035	63.5	69.5	74.5	74.5	98.4	81.1	17.0	25.1	25.3
	Rural	740	1 367	1 382	36.5	30.5	25.5	25.5	1.6	18.9	18.8	31.3	26.0
Education	None	141	157	90	6.9	3.5	1.7	0.7	−7.2	−1.5	15.5	18.1	18.8
	Incomplete primary	375	562	310	18.5	12.5	5.7	7.6	−26.9	−1.9	19.6	26.3	20.1
	Incomplete secondary	1 000	2 274	2 746	49.3	50.7	50.7	51.9	50.5	51.5	21.3	32.6	31.7
	Matric	439	1 313	1 841	21.6	29.3	34.0	35.6	56.5	41.4	17.3	28.2	27.1
	Matric + certificate/diploma	51	127	289	2.5	2.8	5.3	3.1	17.4	7.0	5.4	10.5	15.8
	Degree	11	31	119	0.6	0.7	2.2	0.8	9.4	3.2	2.5	3.8	6.6
	Other/not specified	12	18	22	0.6	0.4	0.4	0.3	0.4	0.3	12.7	16.0	10.5

Note: OHS = October Household Survey; LFS = Labour Force Survey; QLFS = Quarterly Labour Force Survey; WC = Western Cape; EC = Eastern Cape; NC = Northern Cape; FS = Free State; KZN = KwaZulu Natal; NW = North West; GAU = Gauteng; MPU = Mpumalanga; LIM = Limpopo.

Source: Authors’ own calculations using the OHS 1995, LFS 2005 September and QLFS 2015Q3 data.

Figure 4. Previous work experience of the unemployed, QLFS 2015Q3. Note: OHS = October Household Survey; LFS = Labour Force Survey; QLFS = Quarterly Labour Force Survey.Source: Authors’ own calculations using QLFS 2015Q3 data.

Figure 5. Total number of workers at the firms where the employees worked, selected surveys. Note: The question on firm size has only been asked since LFS 2000 September. OHS = October Household Survey; LFS = Labour Force Survey; QLFS = Quarterly Labour Force Survey.Source: Authors’ own calculations using LFS 2000, 2003 and 2006 September as well as QLFS 2009, 2012 and 2015 Q3 data.

Figure 6. Proportion of formal-sector employees employed permanently, selected surveys. Note: The question on type of employment contract has only been asked since OHS 1999. OHS = October Household Survey; LFS = Labour Force Survey; QLFS = Quarterly Labour Force Survey.Source: Authors’ own calculations using OHS 1999, LFS 2003 and 2007 September, and QLFS 2011 and 2015 Q3 data.

Table 6. Proportion of unemployed involved in each job-seeking action by age cohort, 2015.

	Age cohort
	18 to 29 years (%)	30 to 34 years (%)	35 to 44 years (%)	45 to 54 years (%)	55 to 65 years (%)
Waited/registered at employment agency	12.3	12.5	11.3	10.2	7.8
Enquired at workplaces	50.8	54.3	51.7	48.8	42.0
Placed/answered advertisement	40.2	36.8	33.2	23.1	21.7
Searched through job advertisement/Internet	33.3	30.3	28.8	23.7	18.7
Sought assistance from relatives/friends	43.5	46.3	49.5	53.8	54.8
Looked for opportunity to start own business	1.1	1.4	1.8	2.3	3.2
Waited at street side for casual work	4.2	5.0	5.6	5.6	2.6
Sought financial assistance to look for work	0.6	1.0	1.4	1.4	2.9

Note: The respondents could report more than one job-seeking action in the questionnaire.OHS = October Household Survey; LFS = Labour Force Survey; QLFS = Quarterly Labour Force Survey.

Source: Authors’ own calculations using the QLFS 2015Q3 data.