Zambia at 50: The persisting challenges of economic structural transformation

Figures & data

Table 1: Productivity per worker (in 2005 US$) 1975–2012

	1975	1980	1990	1995	2000	2005	2012
Agriculture	821.81	854.81	354.40	434.41	441.85	436.95	468.01
Industry	8 085.59	6 933.32	5 179.24	3 507.40	3 178.53	4 530.87	5 462.82
Manufacturing	6 236.62	6 134.01	5 970.76	7 205.62	7 799.54	1 0177.66	9 645.22
Services	8 542.41	2 576.61	5 408.61	3 314.59	5 208.34	1 2224.75	8 327.07
Average	3 103.90	2 691.10	1 402.37	1 232.02	1 396.84	1 782.84	2 114.22
Productivity ratio per worker by sector
Agriculture	0.26	0.32	0.25	0.35	0.32	0.25	0.22
Industry	2.60	2.58	3.69	2.85	2.28	2.54	2.58
Manufacturing	2.01	2.28	4.26	5.85	5.58	5.71	4.56
Services	2.75	0.96	3.86	2.69	3.73	6.86	3.94

Source: Author based on data from the Word Development Indicators 2014 (DataBank online).

Table 2: Sectoral composition of GDP in Zambia (%), 1965–2013

	1965	1970	1975	1980	1985	1990	1995	2000	2005	2010	2012	2013
Agriculture	17.88	17.60	17.94	17.51	19.80	20.23	27.19	24.96	20.45	18.28	18.42	16.18
Industry	32.45	30.80	33.39	31.33	31.13	32.71	26.53	21.17	26.16	28.59	27.71	28.89
Manufacturing	4.06	6.29	7.27	7.34	7.98	10.20	10.05	10.40	10.43	9.15	9.22	9.32
Services	45.61	45.31	41.40	43.81	41.09	36.86	36.22	43.46	42.96	43.97	44.66	45.61

Source: Author based on data from the Word Development Indicators 2014 (DataBank).

Table 3: Average value-added composition by sector (%), 1965–2013.

	1965–69	1970–79	1980–89	1990–99	2000–09	2010–13
Agriculture	13.47	14.64	15.93	21.14	22.03	19.31
Industry	61.56	50.23	45.46	39.17	29.35	37.17
Manufacturing	8.96	16.14	25.13	21.20	11.04	8.51
Services	24.97	35.13	38.61	39.69	48.62	43.51
Average value-added growth by sector (%), 1965–2013
Agriculture	1.04	2.24	3.52	5.13	1.84	3.58
Industry	1.81	1.51	1.23	−2.82	8.16	7.45
Manufacturing	12.41	4.48	3.59	1.82	4.14	6.46
Services	0.11	1.50	1.28	1.78	5.40	7.66

Source: Author based on date from Word Development Indicators 2014 (Data Bank Online).

Table 4: Employment trends by type, 1970–2012

	1970	1975	1980	1990	1995	2000	2005	2012
Formal employment (000)	342.97	393.50	379.30	376.60	485.00	487.21	495.78	894.18
Informal employment (000)	932.01	1 085.82	1 384.89	3 352.11	3 556.67	3 655.68	3 635.75	4 491.94
Total employed (000)	1 274.98	1 479.32	1 764.19	3 728.71	4 041.67	4 142.88	4 131. 53	5 386.12
Formal employment (%)	26.90	26.60	21.50	10.10	12.00	11.80	12.00	16.60
Informal employment (%)	73.10	73.40	78.50	89.90	88.00	88.24	88.00	83.40

Source: Author based on date from various sources Central Statistical Office surveys (CSO) and reports. Data for earlier years are taken from census and other reports. Data for 2005 and 2012 are from the 2005 and 2012 Labour Force Surveys (CSO, 2014a, 2014b).

Table 5: Employment composition by sector (%), 1975–2012

	1975	1980	1990	1995	2000	2005	2012
Agriculture	67.77	65.14	80.07	77.12	78.91	80.5	56.2
Industry	15.82	15.16	10.86	9.32	9.31	3.9	9
Manufacturing	3.62	3.22	2.39	1.72	1.86	1.83	4.1
Services	15.04	19.76	9.56	13.46	11.66	14.3	26.9
Sectoral share of formal employment (%)
Agriculture	10.98	53.47	12.19	14.31	12.32	6.02	9.83
Industry	36.86	16.34	27.78	19.15	17.19	45.51	24.01
Manufacturing	13.47	7.84	15.91	9.07	9.89	10.86	8.66
Services	52.16	30.20	60.03	66.53	70.48	48.47	66.16
Share of formal employment in total employment by sector (%)
Agriculture	2.44	18.48	1.05	1.70	1.43	0.72	1.63
Industry	8.19	5.65	2.38	2.28	2.00	5.46	3.99
Manufacturing	2.99	2.71	1.37	1.08	1.14	1.30	1.44
Services	11.59	10.44	5.15	7.92	8.20	5.82	10.98

Note: Manufacturing figures are included in the broader category of industry, but they are reported separately to highlight the dynamics over the years. CSO reports do not use the three broad categories of agriculture, industry and services – these categories were created by aggregating the constituting subsectors following the International Standard Industrial Classification of economic activities: agriculture, industry and services.

Source: Author based on date from various sources CSO surveys and reports. Data for earlier years are taken from census and other reports. Data for 2005 and 2012 are from the 2005 and 2012 Labour Force Surveys (CSO, 2014a, 2014b).

Table 6: Poverty headcount dynamics using different poverty lines (%), 2006 and 2010

2006		2010		Trend 2006–10 (percentage points)
National poverty lines
Extreme	Moderate	Extreme	Moderate	Extreme	Moderate
18.5	28.1	17.2	28.9	−1.3	0.8
International poverty lines
US$1.25	US$2	US$1.25	US$2	US$1.25	US$2
59.8	70	67.9	81.4	8.1	11.4

Note: The national poverty lines used by the CSO to estimate poverty in 2006 and 2010 are as follows: extreme poverty line was estimated at K61007 in 2006 and K96 336 in 2010. In US dollars per capita/day this translates to US$0.60 and US$0.66 at current prices. For moderate poverty line, K100 012 was used in 2006 and K146 009 in 2010, and this translates to US$0.99 per capita/day and US$1 per capita/day. These poverty lines are much lower than the international poverty lines of US$1.25 for extreme poverty and US$2 for moderate poverty benchmark. The reasons given for using these extremely low poverty lines in poor countries like Zambia is that these poverty lines are reflective of the average living standards.

Source: Author based on Living Conditions Monitoring Survey (LCMS) 2006 and 2010 data.

Figure 1: Share of vulnerable employment in total employment in Zambia, 1980–2012 (%). .

Source: Author based on data from Word Development Indicators 2014 (DataBank Online)

Table 7: Manufacturing value added and subsector growth rates, 2005–10

	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	Average
Value-added trend	10.7	10.4	9.7	9.4	9.3	8.7	9.7
Sub-sector growth
Food, beverages and tobacco	3.6	8.9	7.6	3	4.9	7.4	3.54
Textiles and leather	−2.9	−1.3	−19.5	−23.6	−20	−56	−12.33
Wood and wood products	3.6	0.7	3.7	12.1	2.6	13.4	3.61
Paper and paper products	10.6	0.3	0.7	29.3	6.2	22.7	6.98
Chemical, rubber and plastic	3.2	4.6	4.2	5.2	−0.3	2.7	1.96
Non-metallic mineral Products	7.4	−5.2	2.3	5	11.7	13	3.42
Basic metals	−2	1.9	−4.8	23	−4.8	−2	1.13
Fabricated metals	7.4	5	7.8	−2.5	−3.4	12.8	2.71

Source: Author based on data from the 2011–12 Manufacturing Survey Sector Report (Republic of Zambia, 2014).

Table 8: Manufacturing sectoral and formal employment trends, 2001–10

	Sectoral growth %	Formal employment	Employment trend %
2001	4.7	47 679	0.3
2002	6.3	68 000	42.6
2003	8.3	38 200	−43.8
2004	5.4	45 854	20.0
2005	3.7	40 151	−12.4
2006	6.7	53 840	34.1
2007	4.1	53 840	0.0
2008	3	44 100	−18.1
2009	3.6	71 300	61.7
2010	5.8	73 814	3.5
Average	5.2	53 677.8	8.8

Source: Author based on data from the 2011–12 Manufacturing Survey Sector Report (Republic of Zambia, 2014).

CSO (Central Statistics Office), 2014a. Living conditions monitoring survey data. Government of Zambia, Lusaka (on DVD).

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CSO (Central Statistical Office), 2014b. Preliminary results of the 2012 labour force survey. CSO, Lusaka.

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CSO (Central Statistics Office), 2006. Living conditions monitoring survey data. Government of Zambia, Lusaka (on DVD).

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Republic of Zambia, 2014. The 2011–2012 manufacturing sector study (MSS) Report. Ministry of Commerce, Trade and Industry, Lusaka.

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