The South African brain drain: An empirical assessment

Figures & data

Figure 1. Documented immigrants and self-declared emigrants, 1950–2003. Source: own representation, data from StatsSA (2003).

Figure 2. Development of South African born population in the traditional five emigrant destinations, 2000–13. Source: own representation, data from Australian Bureau of Statistics, Statistics Canada, Statistics New Zealand, Office for National Statistics (UK) and U.S. Census Bureau.

Notes: The South African born population in years without census data or other official estimates was approximated using a linear extrapolation between the last known and the next known official data point. Linear extrapolations are illustrated by a straight line without a marker.

Figure 3. Development of total South African born population in the traditional five emigrant destinations, 2000–13. Source: see Figure 2.

Notes: Canadian data for 2012 and 2013 was not yet available at the time of writing this article. Between 2001 and 2011, their South African born population had gradually increased by an average of 2.2% per annum. It is here conservatively assumed that the population of immigrants from South Africa did not increase in 2012 and 2013.

Figure 4. Estimated South African born population in the United Arab Emirates, 2000–13. Source: own estimates using data from United Nations (2013) and Phampi (2013).

Notes: The United Nations provided figures for the total immigrant stocks in 2000, 2010, and 2013 (all nationalities). The estimated numbers of South African born immigrants for these years (marked by an asterisk *) are 1.2% of the total stock of immigrants, based on the relative share of South Africans according to Phampi. The stocks between these three years were approximated using linear extrapolations.

Figure 5. Stock of South African born population in other OECD countries, 2000–12. Source: OECD (2015); CBS (2008); Koehler (2008).

Notes: For years without official data, linear extrapolation between the last known and the next known official data point were used. The corresponding extrapolations are indicated by a straight line without a marker. The data for (South) Korea are based on the number of E-2 visa holders.

Figure 6. Development of total stock of South African born persons overseas, 2000–13. Source: see Figures 2–5.

Notes: The data for the other twenty-five OECD countries only cover the period up to 2012. It was conservatively assumed that their numbers remained constant in 2013 and did not continue along the growth path observed in the past. It was further assumed that the stock in 2000 was the same as in 2001 if no data was available.

Figure 7. Stock of South African born migrants – United Nations data vs. own data. Source: see Figure 6; United Nations (2013).

Table 1. International migration for the period 2001–15 – StatsSA assumptions vs. own data.

	StatsSA assumptions*			Own data*
	African	Asian	White	All South African born emigrants
2001–2005	769 038	23 335	−133 782	−174 906
2006–2010	922 885	34 688	−112 046	−122 776
2011–2015	1 067 936	40 929	−95 158	−101 178
TOTAL 2001–2015	2 759 859	98 952	−340 986	−398 860

*Negative numbers indicate a net outflow of people.

Source: StatsSA (2014a); own figures, as presented in this paper; figures for 2014/15 extrapolated.

StatsSA, 2003. Documented migration 2003 (Report No. 03-51-03). Statistics South Africa, Pretoria.

 Google Scholar

United Nations, 2013. Trends in international migrant stock: Migrants by destination and origin. http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/migration/data/estimates2/index.shtml Accessed 21 July 2015.

 Google Scholar

Phampi, A, 2013. UAE MythBuster #3: UAE’s population pie. http://abuphampi.wordpress.com/2013/01/18/uae-mythbusters-3-uaes-population-pie-only-in-abuphampi-english/ Accessed 23 February 2014.

 Google Scholar

OECD, 2015. International migration database – Stock of foreign-born population by country of birth. http://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DastaSetCode=MIG Accessed 1 July 2015.

 Google Scholar

CBS (Central Bureau of Statistics, Israel), 2008. Population census – 2008 census. http://www.cbs.gov.il/census/?MIval=%2Fcensus%2Fpnimi_sub2_tables_e.html&id_topic=11&id_subtopic=2&id_subtopic2=1&Subject=1 Accessed 24 February 2014.

 Google Scholar

Koehler, R, 2008. South Africans on the increase in Korea. http://www.rjkoehler.com/2008/12/15/south-africans-on-the-increase-in-korea/ Accessed 21 February 2014.

 Google Scholar

StatsSA, 2014a. Mid-year population estimates 2014. Statistics South Africa, Pretoria.

 Google Scholar