Measuring regional labour markets in South Africa: How robust are sub-national estimates from the Quarterly Labour Force Survey?

Figures & data

Figure 1. Overlapping confidence intervals. Source: Taken from Cumming and Finch (2005).

Figure 2. Rates of unemployment by selected provinces and metros, QLFS 2008–2014. Source: Quarterly labour force survey; own estimates.

Table 1. Standard errors for the unemployment rate at national, provincial and metro levels, QLFS 2008 to 2014.

		Average no of obs	Average standard error (SE)	SE as factor of RSA	Bandwidth of confidence interval @95%	% point change to be significant*
	South Africa	33168	0.42	n/a	1.66	1.2
Provincial	Gauteng	6217	0.86	2.0	3.35	2.4
	Western Cape	4377	0.86	2.0	3.69	2.6
	KwaZulu-Natal	5186	1.09	2.6	4.26	3.0
	Limpopo	3393	1.42	3.4	5.55	3.9
	Free State	3028	1.30	3.1	5.10	3.6
	Eastern Cape	3275	1.35	3.2	5.28	3.8
	Mpumalanga	3132	1.42	3.4	5.56	4.0
	North West	3009	1.35	3.2	5.27	3.7
	Northern Cape	1552	1.99	4.7	7.79	5.5
Metro	Cape Town	2928	1.13	2.7	4.44	3.2
	Jo'burg	2522	1.29	3.0	5.06	3.6
	Ethekwini	2042	1.63	3.9	6.41	4.6
	Ekurhuleni	1511	1.76	4.2	6.91	4.9
	NMBM	899	2.44	5.8	9.54	6.8
	Mangaung	872	2.12	5.0	8.31	5.9
	Buffalo City	534	2.99	7.1	11.69	8.3
	Tshwane	314	3.91	9.3	15.22	10.8

Source: Quarterly Labour Force Survey; own estimates.

*This is the predicted percentage point change required for such a change to be statistically significant at a 95% level of confidence by applying the rule of thumb (see explanation in section 3).

Figure 3. Rates of unemployment across provinces and metros, QLFS 2014 Q4. Source: Quarterly labour force survey 2014 Q4; own estimates.

Figure 4. Rates of unemployment by race in South Africa and Gauteng, QLFS 2008–2014. Source: Quarterly labour force survey; own estimates.

Figure 5. Employment shares by broad industry category, QLFS 2014 Q4. Source: Quarterly labour force survey 2014 Q4; own estimates.

Table 2. Key labour market indicators; QLFS 2014: Q3 & Q4.

	Jul-Sep 2014	Oct-Dec 2014		Statistically significant change at a level of confidence of:
	Thousands		Absolute change	95%	90%	85%	80%	75%	P-value
Population aged 15–64	35 489	35 643	155						0.70
Labour force	20 268	20 228	−40						0.80
Employed	15 117	15 320	203			✓	✓	✓	0.15
Formal sector (non-agricultural)	10 843	10 911	68						0.60
Informal sector (non-agricultural)	2 407	2 448	41						0.61
Agriculture	686	742	56						0.35
Private households	1 180	1 219	38						0.45
Unemployed	5 151	4 909	−242		✓	✓	✓	✓	0.08
Not economically active	15 221	15 415	194					✓	0.21
Discouraged job-seekers	2 514	2 403	−111						0.37
Other (not economically active)	12 707	13 012	305	✓	✓	✓	✓	✓	0.02
Rates (%)
Unemployment rate	25.4	24.3	−1.1		✓	✓	✓	✓	0.06
Employment/population ratio (absorption rate)	42.6	43.0	0.4						0.33
Labour force particpation rate	57.1	56.8	−0.4						0.41

Source: QLFS 2014: Q3 & Q4; Statistics South Africa (2015).

Figure 6. Change in formal-sector employment by industry, QLFS 2014: Q3 & Q4. Source: QLFS 2014: Q3 & Q4; Statistics South Africa (2015).

Table 3. Changes in employment by province, QLFS 2013:Q4 & 2014:Q4.

	Oct-Dec 2013	Oct-Dec 2014		Statistically significant change at a level of confidence of:
	Thousands		Absolute change	95%	90%	85%	80%	75%	70%	P-value
South Africa	15 177	15 320	143							0.33
Western Cape	2 235	2 170	−65						✓	0.28
Eastern Cape	1 332	1 336	4							0.95
Northern Cape	329	320	−9							0.65
Free State	746	772	26							0.34
KwaZulu-Natal	2 527	2 520	−7							0.91
North West	869	948	80	✓	✓	✓	✓	✓	✓	0.02
Gauteng	4 823	4 881	58							0.50
Mpumalanga	1 149	1 138	−11							0.80
Limpopo	1 168	1 235	67						✓	0.27

Source: QLFS 2013:Q4 & 2014:Q4; Statistics South Africa (2015).

Table 4. Internet news headlines by media houses following the release of the QLFS 2014 Q4.

News headline	Source
10-Feb
SA employment stats improve slightly, unemployment still huge issue	All4Women
Unemployment decreases in 4th quarter	SANews.gov.za
Construction industry biggest contributor to y/y increase in employment	SA Construction News
Unemployment rate eases	Moneyweb
South Africa's jobless rate eases to 24.3 percent in Q4 2014	Sharenet
Unemployment falls in fourth quarter	BDlive
Jobless rate eases to 24.3%	News24, Fin24
SA’s jobless rate dips	IOL
South Africa's jobless rate eases to 24.3% in Q4 2014	Engineering News, Polity.org
SA's unemployment rate dips	iAfrica.com
S.Africa's jobless rate eases to 24.3% in Q4 2014	CNBC Africa
Rand extends losses as commodity currencies remain under pressure	BDlive
Unemployment rate in South Africa declines 24.3% in fourth quarter 2014	eProp
11-Feb
Unemployment rate drops to 24.3%	CapeArgus
Survey: Drop in joblessness	The Witness
Unemployment rate dips to 24.3%	Daily News
12-Feb
EC bucks Q4 trend and loses jobs	Daily Dispatch

Source: Meltwater media monitoring database.

Cumming, G. & Finch, C, 2005. Inference by eye: Confidence intervals and How to read pictures of data. American Psychologist 60(2), 170–80.

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Statistics South Africa, 2015. Quarterly labour force survey 2014 Q4: Statistical Release P0211. www.statssa.gov.za

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