Economic impacts of developing a biofuel industry in Mozambique

Figures & data

Table 1. Bioethanol feedstock costs in Mozambique.

	Farm type
	Community	Commercial
Total production cost (US$)	37,86,936	1,60,36,166
Land area (ha)	2934	11,349
Total cost (US$/ha)	1291	1413
Yield (tonne/ha)	90.50	92.30
Total cost (US$/tonne)	14.26	15.31
Ethanol conversion rate (litres/tonne)	80	80
Litres/ha	7240	7384
Total cost (US$/litre)	0.18	0.19

Table 2. Bioethanol processing costs.

	US$/litre
Feedstock unit cost	0.18–0.19
Capital cost and interest	0.00
Chemical/enzymes	0.01
Energy/utility	0.02
Operations/maintenance	0.04
Unforseen (extra required)	0.02
Total cost	0.32–0.33

Figure 1. Feedstock and processing expenditure by component.

Table 3. Structure of Mozambique economy, 2012.

	Share of total (%)
	GDP	Labour income	Employment	Exports	Imports	Exports/ output (%)	Imports/ demand (%)
Total GDP	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	17.6	27.3
Agriculture, forestry and fishing	28.5	29.3	75.4	4.6	5.5	5.9	13.6
Food crops	20.6	20.3	40.2	1.9	4.7	5.5	20.3
Other agriculture	4.1	4.0	10.6	1.0	0.5	6.7	7.2
Forestry and fishing	3.8	5.0	24.6	1.6	0.2	5.9	5.1
Mining	3.4	1.4	1.0	13.9	0.2	64.3	4.6
Manufacturing	11.7	8.7	2.2	47.0	74.5	40.2	63.2
Food processing	4.4	4.5	0.9	6.8	14.7	12.8	40.4
Other manufacturing	7.3	4.2	1.3	40.2	59.8	54.3	74.1
Utilities and construction	6.4	4.9	3.7	9.9	5.1	20.9	16.0
Services	50.1	55.8	17.7	24.7	14.7	8.0	6.7

Figure 2. Household consumption, 2012.

Figure 3. Household income by source.

Table 4. Core macroeconomic assumptions and results, 2015–25.

		Scenario 1	Scenario 2	Scenario 3	Scenario 4
	Baseline	Bioethanol, status quo	Bioethanol, 50–50	Bioethanol  + cogeneration	Bioethanol  + displacement
Average annual growth rate (%)
Total GDP	7.2	7.204	7.203	7.219	7.202
Labour supply	4.0	4.000	4.000	4.000	4.000
Capital stock	5.3	5.336	5.336	5.341	5.336
Biofuel capital stock	0.0	155.451	149.932	201.859	155.451
Livestock stock	1.0	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000
Land supply	1.0	1.273	1.275	1.273	1.254
Deviation from baseline final year value, 2025 (%)
Real exchange rate^a	–	0.041	0.043	0.046	0.051
Real food prices	–	0.000	−0.001	0.002	0.004

^aA positive (negative) value indicates an appreciation (depreciation).

Table 5. Sector growth, 2015–25.

			Deviation from baseline growth rate, 2015–25 (% point)
			Scenario 1	Scenario 2	Scenario 3	Scenario 4
	Share, 2012 (%)	Baseline growth, 2015–25 (%)	Bioethanol, status quo	Bioethanol, 50–50	Bioethanol  + cogeneration	Bioethanol  + displacement
Total GDP	100.0	7.2	0.0032	0.0025	0.0187	0.0021
Agriculture	28.5	7.7	0.0095	0.0079	0.0100	0.0054
Food crops	20.6	7.6	0.0008	0.0009	0.0021	−0.0027
Other agriculture	4.1	8.0	−0.0373	−0.0392	−0.0411	−0.0480
Forestry and fishing	3.8	8.3	−0.0062	−0.0066	−0.0051	−0.0062
Mining	3.4	5.7	−0.0110	−0.0122	−0.0123	−0.0099
Manufacturing	11.7	5.8	0.0053	0.0026	0.1511	0.0057
Food processing	4.4	5.5	−0.0065	−0.0068	−0.0059	−0.0064
Other manufacturing	7.3	5.9	−0.0078	−0.0094	−0.0014	−0.0072
Utilities and construction	6.4	7.6	−0.0020	−0.0035	−0.0002	−0.0015
Services	50.1	7.2	0.0004	0.0008	0.0022	0.0005

Table 6. Sector employment, 2015–25.

		Deviation from baseline growth rate, 2015–25 (% point)
		Scenario 1	Scenario 2	Scenario 3	Scenario 4
	Baseline employment growth, 2015–25 (%)	Bioethanol, status quo	Bioethanol, 50–50	Bioethanol  + cogeneration	Bioethanol  + displacement
Total	4.0	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000
Agriculture	4.4	0.0068	0.0070	0.0059	0.0060
Food crops	4.5	−0.0080	−0.0083	−0.0083	−0.0074
Other agriculture	5.1	−0.0445	−0.0467	−0.0493	−0.0534
Forestry and fishing	3.6	−0.0082	−0.0086	−0.0082	−0.0080
Mining	0.4	−0.0234	−0.0255	−0.0308	−0.0208
Manufacturing	3.5	−0.0128	−0.0139	−0.0123	−0.0119
Food processing	4.0	−0.0095	−0.0099	−0.0106	−0.0092
Other manufacturing	3.1	−0.0170	−0.0189	−0.0146	−0.0153
Utilities and construction	6.6	−0.0041	−0.0062	−0.0019	−0.0033
Services	3.6	−0.0011	−0.0007	−0.0008	−0.0009

Table 7. Real per capita consumption, 2015–25.

			Deviation from baseline growth rate, 2015–25 (% point)
			Scenario 1	Scenario 2	Scenario 3	Scenario 4
	Per capita consumption, 2012	Baseline growth, 2015 (%)	Bioethanol, status quo	Bioethanol, 50–50	Bioethanol  + cogeneration	Bioethanol  + displacement
Rural	9104	5.5	0.0012	0.0012	0.0026	−0.0011
Quintile 1	3173	5.6	0.0007	0.0007	0.0020	−0.0020
Quintile 2	5190	5.5	0.0010	0.0010	0.0024	−0.0016
Quintile 3	13,661	5.5	0.0012	0.0012	0.0025	−0.0013
Quintile 4	10,823	5.5	0.0012	0.0013	0.0026	−0.0011
Quintile 5	15,218	5.5	0.0013	0.0014	0.0028	−0.0004
Urban	17,567	4.4	0.0010	0.0011	0.0033	0.0005
Quintile 1	2694	4.5	0.0008	0.0008	0.0025	−0.0011
Quintile 2	1859	4.5	0.0000	−0.0002	0.0020	−0.0008
Quintile 3	3965	4.4	0.0001	0.0000	0.0024	−0.0005
Quintile 4	11,473	4.4	0.0003	0.0002	0.0026	−0.0003
Quintile 5	49,241	4.3	0.0012	0.0013	0.0035	0.0008

Table 8. Economic impacts under unconstrained low-skilled labour.

	Deviation from baseline growth rate, 2015–25 (% point)
	Scenario 1	Scenario 2	Scenario 3	Scenario 4
	Bioethanol, status quo	Bioethanol, 50–50	Bioethanol  + cogeneration	Bioethanol  + displacement
Total GDP	0.0068	0.0062	0.0220	0.0056
Agriculture	0.0149	0.0135	0.0155	0.0107
Mining	−0.0090	−0.0101	−0.0103	−0.0078
Manufacturing	0.0088	0.0063	0.1502	0.0092
Utilities and construction	0.0017	0.0004	0.0035	0.0022
Services	0.0029	0.0033	0.0048	0.0029
Total employment	0.0052	0.0053	0.0053	0.0051
Agriculture	0.0153	0.0156	0.0146	0.0141
Mining	−0.0177	−0.0195	−0.0248	−0.0150
Manufacturing	−0.0063	−0.0072	−0.0055	−0.0054
Utilities and construction	0.0017	−0.0001	0.0040	0.0024
Services	0.0017	0.0022	0.0021	0.0019
Per capita consumption
Rural	0.0057	0.0058	0.0072	0.0034
Urban	0.0038	0.0040	0.0062	0.0033