Education elasticities of young women fertility in sub-Saharan Africa: Insights from Ethiopia, Rwanda, and Zimbabwe

Figures & data

Table 1. Main explanatory variable and control factors used in fixed effects multivariate regression.

Characteristic	Variable definition and measurement
Education	Highest attained level of education (None, Primary, Sec+)
Age	Age in years at last birthday at the time of survey (15–19, 20–24)
Modern contraceptive use	Whether a woman use a modern contraceptive (No, Yes)
Wealth	A DHS composite measure of household assets and amenities (Poorest, Poor, Middle, Rich, Richest)
Residence	Current place of residence (Urban, Rural)
Media exposure	Whether a woman is exposed to media, i.e. (radio, newspaper or television) (No, Yes)
Ideal number of children	Reported desired number of children by a woman (0–2, 3–4, 5+)
Work	Whether a woman participate in labour force (No, Yes)
Religion	Self-reported religious affiliation (None/other-Traditional, Muslim, Catholic, Pentecostal, Protestant, Apostolic)

Table 2. Selected characteristics of females aged 15–24, Ethiopia, Rwanda and Zimbabwe, 2005/06, 2010/11 DHS.

All women	ZW	2005	ZW	2010	ETH	2005	ETH	2010	RW	2005	RW	2010
Characteristic	Per.	Freq.	Per.	Freq.	Per.	Freq.	Per.	Freq.	Per.	Freq.	Per.	Freq.
Has given birth in past 5 years		4075		3795		5869		6857		4951		5655
No	60.8	2491	57.2	2203	67.1	4048	71.0	4845	76.8	3820	77.4	4407
Yes	39.2	1584	42.8	1592	32.9	1821	29.0	2012	23.2	1131	22.6	1248
Ever given birth		4075		3795		5869		6857		4951		5655
No	58.8	2409	55.8	2148	66.0	3954	70.2	4762	76.5	3799	77.1	4389
Yes	41.2	1666	44.2	1647	34.0	1915	29.8	2095	23.6	1152	22.9	1266
Has had sex		4071		3795		5869		5655		4951		5655
No	43.5	1801	41.2	1570	52.6	3072	64.8	3682	65.6	3266	64.8	3682
Yes	56.5	2270	58.8	2225	47.4	2797	35.2	1973	34.4	1685	35.2	1973
Age at sexual debut(median mean)	17.0	17.2	17.0	17.3	15.0	15.6	16.0	16.1	18.0	17.6	18.0	17.9
<18	56.2	1262	57.1	1257	76.2	2044	68.1	2185	42.8	721	39.7	777
18+	43.8	969	42.9	906	23.8	680	31.9	953	57.2	932	60.3	1167
Age at first birth (median mean)	18.2	18.0	18.0	18.2	17.0	17.3	18.0	17.8	19.0	19.3	20.0	19.6
<18	37.6	635	37.6	622	54.0	1047	46.3	1057	20.2	232	16.0	206
18+	62.4	1031	62.5	1025	46.0	868	53.7	1038	79.8	920	84.0	1060
Age (median mean)	19.0	19.4	19.0	19.4	19.0	18.9	19.0	18.9	19.0	19.3	19.0	19.3
15–19	52.4	2130	51.4	1980	56.2	3252	57.8	3835	52.3	2595	52.3	2963
20–24	47.6	1945	48.6	1815	43.8	2617	42.2	3022	47.7	2356	47.7	2692
Marital status		4075		3795		5869		6857		4951		5655
Never married	53.5	2233	50.2	2010	54.5	3283	58.0	3866	76.2	3805	78.5	4476
Ever married/cohabiting	46.6	1842	49.8	1785	45.5	2586	42.0	2991	23.9	1146	21.5	1179
Modern contraceptive use		4075		3795		5869		6857		4951		5655
No	74.5	3036	73.3	2789	94.1	5440	87.6	6031	97.9	4839	90.2	5107
Yes	25.5	1039	26.7	1006	5.9	429	12.4	826	2.1	112	9.8	548
Residence		4075		3795		5869		6857		4951		5655
Urban	41.7	1576	39.9	1463	21.4	2128	27.1	2448	18.4	1235	16.2	1059
Rural	58.3	2499	60.1	2332	78.6	3741	73.0	4409	81.6	3716	83.9	4596
Education (median mean)	9.0	8.5	10.0	9.3	0.0	2.7	4.0	4.5	4.0	3.8	5.0	5.0
None	0.5	23	0.3	14	48.9	2572	26.1	1913	12.8	627	6.1	329
Primary	26.3	1076	22.1	850	34.3	1886	57.5	3652	78.3	3824	70.6	3960
Secondary or higher	73.3	2976	77.6	2931	16.8	1411	16.5	1292	8.9	500	23.3	1366

Notes: ZW = Zimbabwe, ETH = Ethiopia, RW = Rwanda.

Figure 1. Trends in youth fertility in Ethiopia, Rwanda and Zimbabwe, 1999/2000 to 2010/2011.

Table 3. Bivariate odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals from logistic regression identifying association between youth childbearing and education as well as other selected variables.

All women	2001–05 ZW	2006–10 ZW	2001–05 ETH	2006–10 ETH	2001–05 RW	2006–10 RW
Characteristic	UOR [95% CI]	UOR [95% CI]	UOR [95% CI]	UOR [95% CI]	UOR [95% CI]	UOR [95% CI]
Age at sexual debut (cts)	0.9[0.84–0.95]**	0.86[0.81–0.91]***	0.87[0.84–0.92]***	0.85[0.81–0.88]***	0.9[0.84–0.95]**	1.14[1.11–1.18]***
<18 (ref)	1	1	1	1	1	1
18+	0.77[0.63–0.93]**	0.65[0.53–0.81]***	0.53[0.4–0.68]***	0.46[0.36–0.57]***	0.77[0.63–0.93]**	1.74[1.45–2.1]***
Age at first birth (cts)	1.59[1.37–1.85]***	1.71[1.49–1.97]***	1.6[1.4–1.84]***	1.5[1.28–1.77]***	2.13[1.7–2.66]***	2.01[1.68–2.4]***
<18 (ref)	1	1	1	1	1	1
18+	3.83[2.23–6.61]***	4.82[2.49–9.34]***	8.08[2.99–21.84]***	4.22[1.43–12.4]**	22.77[6.26–82.8]***	24.73[6.44–95.04]***
Age (cts)	1.66[1.59–1.72]***	1.63[1.57–1.69]***	1.57[1.51–1.62]***	1.65[1.59–1.7]***	1.86[1.79–1.93]***	1.73[1.68–1.79]***
15–19 (ref)	1	1	1	1	1	1
20–24	10.51[8.92–12.39]***	9.48[8.03–11.2]***	8.81[7.36–10.54]***	10.92[8.89–13.42]***	24.44[18.92–31.56]***	14.71[12.21–17.72]***
Modern contraceptive use
No (ref)	1	1	1	1	1	1
Yes	42.45[32.94–54.72]***	45.08[33.09–61.39]***	6.73[4.62–9.8]***	8.1[6.09–10.78]***	18.69[11.23–31.09]***	168.05[103.12–273.87]***
Residence
Urban (ref)	1	1	1	1	1	1
Rural	1.91[1.59–2.29]***	2.03[1.66–2.48]***	3.22[2.61–3.97]***	2.45[1.87–3.21]***	1.53[1.27–1.86]***	1.11[0.91–1.35]
Education (cts)	0.89[0.86–0.93]***	0.86[0.83–0.89]***	0.77[0.75–0.8]***	0.8[0.78–0.83]***	0.88[0.85–0.91]***	0.82[0.79–0.84]***
None (ref)	1	1	1	1	1	1
Primary	0.53[0.21–1.35]	0.69[0.21–2.29]	0.24[0.2–0.3]***	0.18[0.15–0.22]***	0.33[0.28–0.41]***	0.3[0.24–0.38]***
Secondary or higher	0.29[0.12–0.73]**	0.3[0.09–0.99]*	0.13[0.1–0.16]***	0.11[0.08–0.15]***	0.22[0.15–0.3]***	0.12[0.09–0.16]***

Notes: *p < 0.05, **p < 0.01, ***p < 0.001, ref = reference category, cts-indicates the relationship of the variable with fertility when it is taken as a continuous variable.

Table 4. Adjusted odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals identifying effect of education on childbearing.

All women	2001–05 ZW	2006–10 ZW	2001–05 ETH	2006–10 ETH	2001–05 RW	2006–10 RW
Characteristic	AOR [95% CI]	AOR [95% CI]	AOR [95% CI]	AOR [95% CI]	AOR [95% CI]	AOR [95% CI]
Education None (ref)	1	1	1	1	1	1
Primary	0.63[0.17–2.39]	1.43[0.33–6.19]	0.37[0.28–0.48]***	0.32[0.25–0.4]***	0.44[0.34–0.56]***	0.45[0.32–0.63]***
Secondary or higher	0.39[0.1–1.52]	0.69[0.16–2.94]	0.13[0.1–0.19]***	0.11[0.07–0.17]***	0.16[0.1–0.25]***	0.18[0.12–0.29]***
Age 15–19 (ref)	1	1	1	1	1	1
20–24	11.04[8.65–14.09]***	8.46[6.72–10.64]***	8.63[7.02–10.61]***	11.58[9.17–14.63]***	23.4[17.95–30.52]***	12.51[9.92–15.77]***
Modern contraceptive use No (ref)	1	1	1	1	1	1
Yes	40.68[29.45–56.2]***	34.3[24.08–48.86]***	9.28[5.88–14.65]***	10.1[7.32–13.93]***	16.34[9.49–28.16]***	163.22[95.56–278.79]***
Wealth Poorest (ref)	1	1	1	1	1	1
Poor	0.58[0.38–0.87]**	0.81[0.6–1.09]	1.05[0.74–1.5]	0.86[0.62–1.18]	1.19[0.89–1.58]	0.79[0.6–1.04]
Middle	0.43[0.29–0.63]***	0.75[0.54–1.04]	0.96[0.68–1.36]	0.7[0.5–0.99]*	1.54[1.12–2.12]**	0.52[0.39–0.71]***
Rich	0.4[0.25–0.63]***	0.75[0.5–1.12]	1.16[0.81–1.66]	0.55[0.38–0.8]**	1.46[1.09–1.96]*	0.49[0.35–0.67]***
Richest	0.17[0.09–0.32]***	0.31[0.2–0.5]***	0.94[0.62–1.43]	0.53[0.34–0.85]**	1.25[0.86–1.81]	0.46[0.33–0.65]***
Residence Urban (ref)	1	1	1	1	1	1
Rural	1.06[0.72–1.57]	1.4[0.98–2]	1.89[1.31–2.73]**	1.66[1.07–2.59]*	1.53[1.16–2.02]**	0.87[0.64–1.19]
Media exposure No (ref)	1	1	1	1	1	1
Yes	0.75[0.57–0.97]*	0.91[0.71–1.17]	0.86[0.65–1.14]	1.09[0.83–1.44]	0.58[0.47–0.7]***	0.81[0.66–0.99]*
Ideal number of children 0–2 (ref)	1	1	1	1	1	1
3–4	1.18[0.93–1.5]	1.52[1.2–1.93]**	1.31[1.03–1.68]*	1.61[1.22–2.11]**	0.67[0.5–0.9]**	1.04[0.85–1.27]
5+	0.9[0.65–1.23]	1.61[1.14–2.29]**	1.65[1.29–2.1]***	2.2[1.56–3.09]***	0.51[0.37–0.69]***	1.88[1.21–2.9]**
Work No (ref)	1	1	1	1	1	1
Yes	0.83[0.65–1.06]	0.9[0.65–1.26]	0.55[0.43–0.71]***	0.58[0.45–0.74]***	1.28[1.03–1.58]*	1.21[0.96–1.51]
Religion None/other (ref)	1	1	1	1	1	1
Catholic	0.77[0.5–1.2]	0.66[0.4–1.08]	0.48[0.21–1.13]	0.25[0.07–0.92]*	0.36[0.2–0.64]**	0.31[0.18–0.53]***
Pentecostal	0.86[0.58–1.26]	0.97[0.61–1.54]	–	–	–	–
Protestant	0.52[0.33–0.81]**	0.56[0.32–0.97]*	0.59[0.4–0.87]**	0.58[0.41–0.82]**	0.53[0.29–0.95]*	0.37[0.22–0.62]***
Apostolic	0.66[0.38–1.15]	0.59[0.33–1.03]	0.91[0.69–1.21]	0.66[0.49–0.9]**	–	–
Sample size	4030	3761	5501	6412	4761	5604

*p < 0.05, **p < 0.01, ***p < 0.001.

Table 5. Decomposition of changes in youth fertility by age group and educational status.

	Ethiopia				Rwanda				Zimbabwe
	Period effects		Period contributions [%]		Period effects		Period contributions [%]		Period effects		Period contributions [%]
	Period 1	Period 2	Period 1	Period 2	Period 1	Period 2	Period 1	Period 2	Period 1	Period 2	Period 1	Period 2
ASFRs
15–19 years	−0.0010	−0.0220	33.33	59.46	−0.0160	−0.0030	47.06	14.29	−0.0070	0.0110	233.33	157.14
20–24 years	−0.0020	−0.0150	66.67	40.54	−0.0180	−0.0180	52.94	85.71	0.0040	−0.0040	−133.33	−57.14
Total effects	−0.0030	−0.0370	100.00	100.00	−0.0340	−0.0210	100.00	100.00	−0.0030	0.0070	100.00	100.00
Education
No education	0.0575	0.0224	145.53	91.69	−0.0160	0.0127	23.53	−235.76	−0.0719	0.1256	117.98	74.74
Primary	−0.0131	0.0093	−33.04	38.19	−0.0180	−0.0002	26.47	4.38	0.0090	0.0246	−14.78	14.65
Secondary or higher	−0.0049	−0.0073	−12.49	−29.88	−0.0340	−0.0178	50.00	331.38	0.0019	0.0178	−3.20	10.60
Total effects	0.0395	0.0244	100.00	100.00	−0.0680	−0.0054	100.00	100.00	−0.0609	0.1680	100.00	100.00