How large is the missing middle and what would it cost to fund?

Figures & data

Table 1. The racial mix of South African society, TVET students, university students and NSFAS recipients.

Grouping	African	Coloured	Indian/Asian	White
South Africa	81.0%	9.0%	2.0%	8.0%
TVET students	92.1%	6.5%	0.3%	1.1%
University students	72.6%	6.4%	5.2%	15.8%
TVET NSFAS recipients	94.9%	4.8%	0.1%	0.2%
University NSFAS recipients	95.2%	3.1%	0.7%	1.1%

Source: NSFAS Vital Statistics (2019a).

Table 2. Average annual household income by population group of the household head as at 2014/15 and updated to 2019^b.

Race of household head	Average annual household income as at 2014/15^a	Average annual household income from column 2 updated to 2019 population averages
African	R92 983	R107 847
Coloured	R172 765	R200 382
Indian/Asian	R271 621	R315 040
White	R444 446	R515 492

^aSource: Statistics South Africa (2017), 2014/2015, Living Conditions of Households in South Africa, Table 3.3.

^bConsistent with 2019 population averages.

Table 3. Racial make-up of 2019 PSET students (forecast).

	African	Coloured	Indian/Asian	White	Total
TVET students	524 970	37 050	1710	6270	570 000
Undergraduate university Students	631 620	55 680	45 240	137 460	870 000
Total PSET students	1 156 590	92 730	46 950	143 730	1 440 000

Table 4. Estimated number of students currently in PSET and not in receipt of NSFAS funding by race and educational institution type.

	African	Coloured	Indian/Asian	White	Total
TVET students	238 277	22 549	1408	5666	267 900
Undergraduate university students	176 088	40 847	41 891	132 197	391 022
Total PSET students	414 365	63 396	43 298	137 862	658 922

Table 5. Estimate of academically eligible non-NSFAS funded students by race and educational institution type.

	African	Coloured	Indian/Asian	White	Total
TVET students	70 287	10 693	861	3659	85 500
Undergraduate university students	143 693	36 972	38 937	122 900	342 503
Total PSET students	213 980	47 665	39 798	126 560	428 003

Table 6. Probability of households having an income below R350 000 and R600 000 and, thereby, the percentage that lie in the missing middle range, by race.

	African	Coloured	Indian/Asian	White
P (household income ≤ 350)	87.5%	76.2%	56.6%	22.6%
P (household income ≤ 600)	99.1%	97.2%	91.3%	65.7%
P (being financially eligible part of missing middle)	92.8%	88.2%	80.0%	55.7%

Table 7. Estimate of the size and composition of the missing middle (mm).

	African	Coloured	Indian/Asian	White	Total
TVET	65 226	9431	689	2038	77 384
Undergraduate university	133 347	32 609	31 150	68 456	265 562
PSET	198 573	42 041	31 838	70 494	342 946
TVET %	84.3%	12.2%	0.9%	2.6%	100.0%
Undergraduate university %	50.2%	12.3%	11.7%	25.8%	100.0%
PSET %	57.9%	12.3%	9.3%	20.6%	100.0%

NSFAS (National Student Financial Aid Scheme), 2019a. NSFAS vital statistics 2018.

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Stats SA (Statistics South Africa), 2017. Living conditions survey: Statistical release P0310: Living conditions of households in South Africa – an analysis of household expenditure and income data using the LCS 2014.15. http://www.statssa.gov.za/publications/P0310/P03102014.pdf Accessed 25 May 2019.

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