Examining the South African labour market during the COVID-19 lockdown period

Figures & data

Figure 1. Modified human capital theory framework considering the COVID-19 pandemic. Source: Adapted from Yu & Roos (2018).

Figure 2. Labour force participation rates and unemployment rates, 1995–2022. Source: Authors’ own calculations using the 1995–1999 OHS, 2000–07 LFS September and 2008–22 QLFS data.

Figure 3. Number of employed and unemployed (millions), 1995–2022. Source: Authors’ own calculations using the 1995–1999 OHS, 2000–07 LFS September and 2008–2022 QLFS data.

Table 1. Absolute and relative changes in labour force by personal characteristics.

	Percentage share (%)				Change: 2020Q1-2022Q2
	2020Q1	2020Q2	2021Q2	2022Q2	Absolute (1 000s)	Relative (%)
Gender
Male	54.39	55.46	54.92	54.48	75	73.99
Female	45.61	44.54	45.08	45.52	26	26.01
	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	102	100.00
Race
African	79.32	77.63	80.06	80.40	335	329.13
Coloured	9.35	9.44	8.71	8.95	−85	−83.35
Indian	2.63	3.10	2.66	2.73	25	24.91
White	8.70	9.83	8.58	7.93	−174	−170.68
	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	102	100.00
Age cohort
15–24 years	11.88	8.74	10.26	11.53	−70	−68.63
25–34 years	32.24	31.24	32.36	31.93	−41	−40.64
35–44 years	28.71	30.14	29.25	28.92	79	77.39
45–54 years	19.34	21.31	20.24	20.25	235	230.85
55–64 years	7.83	8.57	7.89	7.37	−101	−98.97
	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	102	100.00
Province
Western Cape	13.50	14.19	13.37	13.73	70	68.41
Eastern Cape	9.89	10.04	10.23	9.97	28	28.00
Northern Cape	1.96	1.85	1.56	1.77	−43	−42.23
Free State	5.23	4.62	4.99	5.06	−35	−34.60
KwaZulu-Natal	15.59	15.38	15.74	15.65	32	31.18
North West	6.18	6.04	6.63	5.78	−89	−87.35
Gauteng	31.95	32.95	31.64	31.02	−186	−182.46
Mpumalanga	7.95	6.95	7.91	7.75	−39	−38.82
Limpopo	7.75	7.98	7.93	9.26	364	357.88
	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	102	100.00
Education
None-Grade7	6.79	5.93	5.56	5.38	−327	−321.99
Grade 8–11	40.40	37.77	39.94	38.30	−455	−447.33
Grade 12	34.05	34.73	35.62	37.21	780	767.19
Grade 12 + Cert/Dip	8.78	9.59	8.92	7.94	−191	−187.51
Degree	8.99	11.04	9.25	10.07	266	261.20
Other/Unspecified	0.98	0.94	0.71	1.10	29	28.44
	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	102	100.00

Source: Authors’ own calculations using QLFS 2020 first quarter, 2020 second quarter, 2021 second quarter and 2022 second quarter data.

Table 2. Absolute and relative changes in employed by personal characteristics.

	Percentage share (%)				Changes: 2020Q1–2022Q2
	2020Q1	2020Q2	2021Q2	2022Q2	Absolute (1 000s)	Relative (%)
Gender
Male	55.85	56.34	56.59	55.56	−503	61.23
Female	44.15	43.66	43.41	44.44	−319	38.77
	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	−823	100.00
Race
African	75.12	74.55	75.31	75.71	−525	63.87
Coloured	10.16	9.96	9.49	9.83	−136	16.49
Indian	3.28	3.46	3.26	3.49	6	−0.75
White	11.44	12.02	11.94	10.97	−168	20.39
	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	−823	100.00
Age cohort
15–24 years	6.96	5.43	5.56	6.73	−93	11.32
25–34 years	28.90	28.93	28.11	28.40	−316	38.44
35–44 years	31.21	31.68	31.45	31.07	−279	33.92
45–54 years	22.82	23.82	24.33	24.06	6	−0.72
55–64 years	10.11	10.14	10.55	9.74	−140	17.03
	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	−823	100.00
Province
Western Cape	15.27	15.43	15.12	15.06	−158	19.18
Eastern Cape	8.43	8.26	8.24	8.63	−39	4.72
Northern Cape	2.05	1.80	1.71	2.04	−18	2.17
Free State	4.61	4.50	4.83	5.18	51	−6.18
KwaZulu-Natal	16.31	16.26	16.19	15.94	−192	23.31
North West	5.90	6.18	6.54	5.92	−45	5.52
Gauteng	31.37	31.60	31.15	30.80	−347	42.21
Mpumalanga	7.58	7.85	7.81	7.49	−77	9.31
Limpopo	8.48	8.12	8.40	8.94	2	−0.24
	100.00	100.00	100.09	100.00	−823	100.00
Education
None-Grade7	7.18	6.03	6.16	5.48	−324	39.30
Grade 8–11	36.69	34.80	36.18	34.21	−689	83.77
Grade 12	33.46	34.24	34.38	36.57	210	−25.55
Grade 12 + Cert/Dip	10.11	10.76	10.27	9.22	−221	26.82
Degree	11.45	13.19	12.18	13.26	187	−22.77
Other/Unspecified	1.12	0.98	0.82	1.26	13	−1.61
	100.01	100.00	100.00	100.00	−823	100.00

Source: Authors’ own calculations using QLFS 2020 first quarter, 2020 second quarter, 2021 second quarter and 2022 second quarter data.

Table 3. Absolute and relative changes in employment by occupation and industry.

	Percentage share				Changes: 2020Q1–2022Q2
	2020Q1	2020Q2	2021Q2	2022Q2	Absolute (1 000s)	Relative (%)
Occupation
Managers	8.87	9.12	9.41	8.07	−198	24.04
Professionals	5.79	7.57	6.63	7.52	222	−27.05
Technicians	8.28	8.60	8.82	8.79	11	−1.28
Clerks	10.21	10.39	9.92	10.28	−74	9.02
Service and sales workers	16.77	16.26	15.53	16.57	−170	20.62
Skilled agricultural workers	0.43	0.48	0.30	0.46	1	−0.18
Craft and related trades	11.83	10.75	10.71	10.75	−267	32.41
Operators and assemblers	8.45	8.60	8.29	8.60	−46	5.60
Elementary occupations	23.19	22.44	24.06	23.44	−152	18.52
Domestic workers	6.16	5.35	6.02	5.52	−149	18.16
Other/Unspecified	0.01	0.44	0.31	0.00	−1	0.15
	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	−823	100.00
Industry
Agriculture	5.28	5.64	5.79	5.60	8	−0.93
Mining	2.65	2.63	2.66	2.61	−28	3.44
Manufacturing	10.41	10.29	9.49	9.68	−201	24.43
Utilities	0.70	0.80	0.79	0.67	−10	1.27
Construction	8.20	7.54	8.18	7.55	−169	20.57
Trade	20.26	20.83	20.63	20.30	−159	19.38
Transport	6.07	6.25	6.47	5.82	−89	10.84
Finance	15.37	15.79	15.05	15.85	−52	6.29
CSP services	22.94	22.93	22.78	24.55	62	−7.57
Private households	8.04	7.11	7.99	7.24	−190	23.16
Other/Unspecified	0.07	0.19	0.18	0.12	7	−0.88
	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	−823	100.00

Source: Authors’ own calculations using QLFS 2020 first quarter, 2020 second quarter, 2021 second quarter and 2022 second quarter data.

Table 4. Absolute and relative changes in unemployed by personal characteristics.

	Percentage share				Changes: 2020Q1–2022Q2
	2020Q1	2020Q2	2021Q2	2022Q2	Absolute (1 000s)	Relative (%)
Gender
Male	51.01	52.56	51.72	52.35	579	62.63
Female	48.99	47.44	48.28	47.65	345	37.37
	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	924	100.00
Race
African	89.09	87.78	89.14	89.55	860	93.06
Coloured	7.44	7.73	7.22	7.22	51	5.51
Indian	1.13	1.92	1.51	1.24	19	2.07
White	2.33	2.57	2.13	1.99	−6	−0.63
	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	924	100.00
Age cohort
15–24 years	23.29	19.66	19.25	20.89	23	2.52
25–34 years	40.00	38.88	40.49	38.81	275	29.74
35–44 years	22.90	25.06	25.04	24.73	358	38.71
45–54 years	11.27	13.01	12.41	12.83	229	24.76
55–64 years	2.55	3.38	2.80	2.75	39	4.27
	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	924	100.00
Province
Western Cape	9.38	10.10	10.01	11.14	227	24.59
Eastern Cape	13.28	15.93	14.05	12.58	67	7.28
Northern Cape	1.75	1.99	1.28	1.24	−25	−2.72
Free State	6.68	5.04	5.30	4.83	−86	−9.30
KwaZulu-Natal	13.91	12.45	14.86	15.10	223	24.17
North West	6.83	5.59	6.80	5.49	−43	−4.70
Gauteng	33.29	37.43	32.57	31.46	162	17.49
Mpumalanga	8.82	3.96	8.10	8.26	37	4.02
Limpopo	6.07	7.52	7.02	9.90	362	39.16
	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	924	100.00
Education
None-Grade7	5.92	5.62	4.40	5.18	−4	−0.41
Grade 8–11	49.02	47.56	47.15	46.28	234	25.34
Grade 12	35.42	36.33	37.99	38.46	570	61.67
Grade 12 + Cert/Dip	5.71	5.71	6.32	5.42	30	3.24
Degree	3.26	3.95	3.63	3.86	78	8.47
Other/Unspecified	0.67	0.81	0.51	0.79	16	1.69
	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	924	100.00

Source: Authors’ own calculations using QLFS 2020 first quarter, 2020 second quarter, 2021 second quarter and 2022 second quarter data.

Table 5. Profile of the people who were still employed in February 2020.

Gender
Male	43.96
Female	55.82
Unspecified	0.23
Race
African	87.45
Coloured	12.33
Indian	0.00
White	0.00
Unspecified	0.23
Age
15–24 years	11.85
25–34 years	66.54
35–44 years	18.49
45–54 years	1.03
55–65 years	2.08
Mean age (years)	30.52
Area type
Traditional	7.62
Urban	70.02
Farms	0.20
Geotype changed	22.16
Province
Western Cape	12.55
Eastern Cape	9.64
Northern Cape	2.82
Free State	5.10
KwaZulu-Natal	11.49
North West	4.04
Gauteng	28.78
Mpumalanga	7.53
Limpopo	7.57
Province changed	10.46
Educational attainment	Wave 1	Wave 5
None	0.00	0.00
Incomplete primary	0.00	0.00
Incomplete secondary	6.49	12.33
Matric	63.34	49.39
Matric + Cert/Dip	15.50	26.57
Degree	12.59	10.59
Other/Unspecified	2.08	1.12
Mean education (years)	12.47	12.44

Source: Authors’ own calculations using the NIDS-CRAM wave 1 and wave 5 data.

Table 6. Labour market status of NIDS-CRAM participants who were employed in 2020 February.

Labour market status	Wave 1	Wave 2	Wave 3	Wave 4	Wave5
Unspecified	1.31	0.41	0.33	0.31	0.07
Inactive	3.87	7.67	4.78	7.80	6.99
Discouraged	12.84	10.87	7.22	8.06	5.74
Unemployed	7.21	9.83	11.68	11.64	11.58
Employed	74.77	71.22	75.99	72.18	75.62
	100.00	100.00	100.00	99.99	100.00
LFPR	81.98	81.05	87.67	83.82	87.20
Unemployment rate	8.79	12.13	13.32	13.89	13.28

Source: Authors’ own calculations using the NIDS-CRAM waves 1–5 data.

Table 7. Changes in labour market status (if any) of NIDS-CRAM participants who were employed in 2020 February.

Employed in all five waves	51.38
Unemployed in all five waves	0.47
Inactive in all five waves	1.81
Transitioned between employed and unemployed in all five waves	10.99
Being labour force less than five waves	35.35
	100.00

Source: Authors’ own calculations using the NIDS-CRAM waves 1–5 data.

Table 8. Number of times employed by number of times in the labour force.

		Employed
		None	One wave	Two waves	Three waves	Four waves	All five waves
Labour force	None	100.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00
	One wave	40.92	59.08	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00
	Two waves	21.37	15.57	63.06	0.00	0.00	0.00	100.00
	Three waves	8.90	28.32	22.59	40.19	0.00	0.00	100.00
	Four waves	2.11	10.77	12.35	17.78	56.99	0.00	100.00
	All five waves	0.75	1.53	3.72	4.90	7.34	81.76	100.00
	All	6.53	8.88	9.69	9.46	14.06	51.38	100.00

Source: Authors’ own calculations using the NIDS-CRAM waves 1–5 data.

Table 9. Labour market status transition between waves 1 and 5 of NIDS-CRAM participants who were employed in 2020 February.

		Wave 5
		Unspecified	Inactive	Discouraged workseekers	Unemployed	Employed
Wave 1	Inactive	0.00	43.90	3.57	13.80	38.74	100.0
	Discouraged workseekers	0.36	6.20	12.48	17.77	63.20	100.0
	Unemployed	0.00	6.48	12.49	21.61	59.42	100.0
	Employed	0.03	4.65	4.09	9.08	82.16	100.0
All		0.07	6.99	5.74	11.58	75.62	100.00

Source: Authors’ own calculations using the NIDS-CRAM wave 1 and wave 5 data.

Table 10. Weekly work days and daily work hours of employed in each NIDS-CRAM wave.

	Wave 1	Wave 2	Wave 3	Wave 4	Wave 5
Work days per week
One-Two days	24.01	8.79	6.66	6.86	6.26
Three days	6.19	6.27	8.74	5.66	6.70
Four days	8.30	8.37	8.69	9.13	8.88
Five days	31.15	41.67	49.23	45.93	52.09
Six days	6.69	10.58	11.53	11.67	10.92
Seven days	4.23	8.04	9.73	11.47	9.53
Unspecified	19.42	16.28	5.43	9.29	5.63
	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
Mean work days	3.61	4.73	4.81	4.92	4.87
Work hours per day
1–4 h	22.87	6.06	4.28	5.74	4.70
5–7 h	8.54	12.19	15.63	13.71	14.12
8 h	28.35	37.68	42.37	41.72	44.37
At least 9 h	18.13	25.74	29.53	27.86	29.02
Unspecified	22.12	18.32	8.19	10.95	7.79
	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
Mean work hours	6.47	8.28	8.30	8.31	8.29

Source: Authors’ own calculations using the NIDS-CRAM waves 1–5 data.

Figure 4. Primary reason of unemployed (who still worked in February 2020) not working in the past four weeks at the time of each NIDS-CRAM wave. Source: Authors’ own calculations using the NIDS-CRAM waves 1–5 data.

Table A1. Absolute and relative changes in the inactive by personal characteristics.

	Percentage share (%)				Change: 2020Q1-2022Q2
	2020Q1	2020Q2	2021Q2	2022Q2	Absolute (1000s)	Relative (%)
Gender
Male	41.02	43.51	41.67	41.44	309	50.19
Female	58.98	56.49	58.33	58.56	306	49.81
	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	615	100.00
Race
African	80.74	82.4	80.23	80.51	467	75.85
Coloured	9.18	9.13	10.15	9.42	89	14.51
Indian	3.00	2.35	2.88	2.64	−30	−4.83
White	7.08	6.12	6.74	7.42	89	14.47
	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	615	100.00
Age cohort
15–24 years	52.48	43.89	51.77	49.97	−14	−2.23
25–34 years	11.70	18.93	12.60	12.27	149	24.23
35–44 years	8.15	12.62	8.62	8.57	107	17.38
45–54 years	8.92	9.99	8.90	8.85	45	7.39
55–64 years	18.76	14.57	18.10	20.34	328	53.24
	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	615	100.00
Province
Western Cape	11.6	11.31	12.63	11.86	107	17.41
Eastern Cape	13.27	12.03	13.51	13.32	88	14.33
Northern Cape	2.23	2.34	2.48	2.07	−7	−1.20
Free State	4.69	5.38	4.72	4.65	24	3.93
KwaZulu-Natal	21.68	20.76	21.41	20.48	−26	−4.30
North West	7.61	7.15	6.69	7.65	51	8.36
Gauteng	20.59	21.99	20.66	22.81	424	68.91
Mpumalanga	6.83	7.91	6.93	6.78	35	5.67
Limpopo	11.51	11.14	10.97	10.38	−81	−13.10
	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	615	100.00
Education
None-Grade7	13.28	10.11	11.44	12.02	−87	−14.10
Grade 8–11	57.86	55.78	59.78	58.70	468	75.99
Grade 12	23.00	26.67	23.53	24.00	276	44.86
Grade 12 + Cert/Dip	2.39	3.69	2.08	1.98	−40	−6.54
Degree	2.31	2.5	2.06	2.21	1	0.16
Other/Unspecified	1.16	1.25	1.12	1.08	−2	−0.38
	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	615	100.00

Source: Authors’ own calculations using QLFS 2020 first quarter, 2020 second quarter, 2021 second quarter and 2022 second quarter data.

Table A2. Heckprobit regressions on employment likelihood, conditional on labour force participation.

	Marginal effects
	QLFS2020Q1	QLFS2020Q2	QLFS2021Q2	QLFS2022Q2
Gender: Male	−0.005	−0.037***	−0.016	−0.015
Race: Coloured	0.072***	0.059***	0.096***	0.102***
Race: Indian	0.164***	0.047	0.136***	0.140***
Race: White	0.199***	0.127***	0.232***	0.231***
Age: 25–34 years	−0.049*	−0.107***	−0.081*	−0.040***
Age: 35–44 years	0.039***	−0.077*	0.002	0.040
Age: 45–54 years	0.111***	−0.028	0.094*	0.112***
Age: 55–64 years	0.244***	0.140***	0.261***	0.268***
Province: Western Cape	0.090***	0.077***	0.088***	0.016
Province: Northern Cape	0.084***	0.064***	0.163***	0.148***
Province: Free State	−0.023	0.072***	0.052***	0.056***
Province: KwaZulu-Natal	0.139***	0.155***	0.164***	0.124***
Province: North West	0.055***	0.117***	0.090***	0.110***
Province: Gauteng	−0.010	−0.003	0.010	−0.012
Province: Mpumalanga	0.036***	0.163***	0.082***	0.051***
Province: Limpopo	0.159***	0.131***	0.172***	0.076***
Area: urban	−0.011	0.026***	0.023*	0.030***
Education years	−0.037***	−0.030***	−0.052***	−0.042***
Education years squared	0.002***	0.002***	0.003***	0.002***
Married	0.086***	0.076***	0.095***	0.106***
Lambda	−0.296***	−0.334***	−0.336***	−0.288***
Observed probability	0.6981	0.7671	0.6563	0.6601
Predicted probability	0.7314	0.8031	0.6847	0.6881
Number of observations	24 363	12 937	18 085	19 705
Chi-squared statistic	2 551.61	1 067.55	1 748.24	1 889.68
Prob. > Chi-squared	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000
Pseudo R-squared	0.1348	0.1373	0.1321	0.1226

Source: Authors’ own calculations using QLFS 2020 first quarter, 2020 second quarter, 2021 second quarter and 2022 second quarter data. *** Significant at 1%; ** Significant at 5%; * Significant at 10%.

Yu, D & Roos, P, 2018. Frans Barkers’ The South African Labour Market. 6th edition. Pretoria: Van Schaik Publishers.

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