IDENTIFYING THE DRIVERS OF TRADE FINANCE IN SOUTH AFRICA

Figures & data

Table 1: A preliminary summary

Variables	Predicted relationship
Rand-Dollar exchange rate	+
Rand-Pound exchange rate	+
Banks asset to capital ratio (RSA)	−
Banks asset to capital ratio (USA)	−
Financial condition index (RSA)	−
Financial condition index (USA)	−
GDP growth for South Africa	+
GDP growth for the United States	+
South Africa’s sovereign credit rating	+
Total exports for South Africa	+
VIX index of implied volatility	−

Table 2: Model probabilities at t

Table 3: Model probabilities at t−1

Table 4: Three variable model (Compiled from Eviews output)

Dependent Variable: DIFTCDR
Method: Robust Least Squares
Included observation: 252 after adjustments
Method:	M-estimation
M setting:	weight = Bisquare
	scale = MAD (median centered)
Variable	Coefficient	Std, Error	z-Statistic	Prob
DIFUSAGDP	−0,0000	0,0000	−2,4153	0,0157
DIFRSACR	−0,0053	0,0026	−2,0090	0,0445
DIFRANDPOUNDFX	0,0021	0,0011	1,9085	0,0563
C	0,0101	0,0049	2,0711	0,0383
	Robust Statistics
R-Squared	0,0278
Adj R-squared	0,0160
Akaike criterion	302,2420
Schwarz criterion	318,3862

Figure 1: TCDR for the retail industry

Figure 2: TCDR for the retail industry

Figure 3: Miscellaneous producers

Figures 4: Mining and related industries

Figures 5: Mining and related industries

Figure 6: Technological hardware and equipment

Figure 7: Food producers