Detection and attribution of variability and trends in streamflow records from the Canadian Prairie Provinces

Figures & data

Figure 1. The 86 naturally flowing streamflow records (squares) from the Canadian Prairie Provinces used in this study (Lambert equal area projection).

Table 1. Eighty-six naturally flowing river discharge records from the Prairie Provinces, including Water Survey of Canada (WSC) station codes.

Station name	WSC code	Station name	WSC code
Sage Creek at Q Ranch	11AA026	Notukeu Creek above Admiral Res.	05JB004
Waterton River near Waterton Park	05AD003	Swift Current Creek, below Rock Creek	05HD036
Rolph Creek near Kimball	05AE005	Bridge Creek at Gull Lake	05HA015
Manyberries Creek	05AF010	Cottonwood Creek near Lumsden	05JF011
Pincher Creek at Pincher Creek	05AA004	Stony Creek near Kamsack	05MD010
Prairie Blood Coulee	05AD035	Opuntia Lake West Inflow	05GC007
Trout Creek near Granum	05AB005	Maloneck Creek near Pelly	05LE011
Blood Indian Creek near the mouth	05CK001	Quill Creek near Quill Lake	05MA020
Jumpingpound Creek	05BH009	Lilian River near Lady Lake	05MC003
Bow River at Banff	05BB001	Red Deer River near Erwood	05LC001
Rosebud River	05CE006	Overflowing River near Hudson Bay	05LD003
Mistaya River	05DA007	Sturgeon River near Prince Albert	05GF002
Threehills Creek	05CE018	Shell Brook near Shellbrook	05GF001
Prairie Creek	05DB002	Carrot River near Smoky Burn	05KC001
Bigknife Creek near Gadsby	05FC002	Beaver River near Dorintosh	06AD001
Buffalo Creek at Highway 41	05FE002	Churchill River above Otter Rapids	06CD002
Athabasca River at Hinton	07AD002	Haultain River above Norbert River	06BD001
McLeod River above Embarras	07AF002	Gelkie River below Wheeler River	06DA004
Pembina River	07BB002	Waterfound River below Theriau Lake	07LB002
Waskatenau Creek	05EC002	MacFarlane River at Outlet Davy Lake	07MB001
Beaver River at Cold Lake Reserve	06AD006	Fond du Lac River **	07LE001¸07LE002
Athabasca River at Athabasca	07BE001	Mowbray Creek near Mowbray	05OB021
Little Smoky River near Guy	07GH002	Antler River near Melita	05NF002
Saddle River near Woking	07FD006	Graham Creek near Melita	05NF008
Smoky River at Watino	07GJ001	Shannon Creek near Morris	05OF014
Pine River at East Pine, BC	07FB001	S. Tobacco Creek near Miami	05OF017
Heart River near Nampa	07HA003	Whitemouth River	05PH003
Clearwater River at Draper	07CD001	Brokenhead River near Beausejour	05SA002
Athabasca River below McMurray	07DA001	Little Saskatchewan River	05MF001
Notikewin River	07HC001	Pelican Creek S. Tributary	05LL027
Birch River below Alice Creek	07KE001	Shell River near Inglis	05MD005
Richardson River near the mouth	07DD002	Icelandic River near Riverton	05SC002
Boyer River near Ft.Vermilion	07JF002	Ochre River at Ochre River	05LJ005
Ponton River above Boyer River	07JF003	Fisher River near Dallas	05SD003
Sousa Creek near High Level	07OA001	Waterhen River near Waterhen	05LH005
Chinchaga River	07OC001	Pigeon River at Outlet of Round Lake	05RD008
Hay River near Hay River	07OB001	Overflowing River at Overflowing R.	05LD001
Rock Creek below Horse Creek	11AE009	Island Lake River	04AC007
Poplar River at Intern. Bd.	11AE008	God’s River below Allan Rapids	04AC005
Long Creek at W. Crossing*	05NA003	Grass River above Standing Stone Falls	05TD001
Lyons Creek at International Boundary	11AB075	Kettle River near Gillam	05UF004
Lightning Creek near Carnduff	05NF006	Little Beaver River near the mouth	06FB002
Antler River near Wauchope	05NF010	Seal River below Great Is.	06GD001

* Slightly regulated;

** Two nearby gauge records merged by drainage area ratio.

Figure 2. (a) Histogram of the 86 Canadian Prairie Provinces’ naturally flowing streamflow record lengths (years) from Table 1. (b) Histogram of the drainage areas (km²) of the 86 naturally flowing streams. The x-axis numbers list the potentially largest number in that bin.

Figure 3. Plots of the November–March Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), December–February Pacific North American mode (PNA), negative November–March North Pacific Index (NPI), negative June–November Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and December–March Arctic Oscillation (AO) for 1900–2010. The dotted lines mark the strong positive and strong negative climate oscillation events (see Table

Table 2. Classification of years into strong positive and negative climate oscillation events for the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Pacific North American mode (PNA), North Pacific Index (NPI), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and Arctic Oscillation (AO).

Climate oscillation	Phase	Strong event years
PDO	positive	1905, 1906, 1908, 1909, 1922, 1924, 1927, 1931, 1935, 1936, 1937, 1940, 1941, 1942, 1970, 1977, 1981, 1983-1988, 1994, 1998, 2003
	negative	1917, 1918, 1946, 1949, 1950, 1951, 1952, 1954, 1956, 1957, 1962, 1964, 1965, 1969, 1971, 1972, 1974, 1976, 1991, 2000, 2008, 2009
PNA	positive	1953, 1961, 1964, 1970, 1977, 1981, 1983, 1986, 1987, 1988, 1992, 1995, 1998, 2001, 2003, 2004, 2007, 2010
	negative	1950, 1951, 1952, 1955, 1956, 1957, 1965, 1966, 1969, 1971, 1972, 1979, 1982, 1990, 2009
NPI	low	1900, 1926, 1931, 1934, 1936, 1940, 1941, 1945, 1961, 1963, 1970, 1977, 1978, 1981, 1983, 1984, 1986, 1987, 1992, 1998, 2001, 2003, 2010
	high	1903, 1904, 1907, 1908, 1910, 1911, 1916, 1917, 1920, 1922, 1932, 1937, 1943, 1948, 1951, 1952, 1955, 1956, 1966, 1971, 1972, 1989, 1991, 2009
SOI	negative El Niño	1902, 1904, 1905, 1911, 1912, 1913, 1914, 1918, 1919, 1923, 1925, 1932, 1939, 1940, 1941, 1944, 1946, 1951, 1953, 1957, 1963, 1965, 1969, 1972, 1976, 1977, 1982, 1987, 1991, 1992, 1993, 1994, 1997, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2009
	positive La Niña	1906, 1908, 1909, 1910, 1915, 1916, 1917, 1921, 1924, 1938, 1945, 1947, 1950, 1955, 1956, 1964, 1970, 1971, 1973, 1974, 1975, 1988, 1996, 1998, 2000, 2008
AO	positive	1903,1905, 1907, 1913, 1914, 1920, 1925, 1943, 1948, 1949, 1973, 1975, 1976, 1989, 1990, 1992, 1993, 1995, 1997, 2000, 2002, 2007, 2008
	negative	1900, 1915, 1919, 1931, 1936, 1940, 1941, 1942, 1947, 1951, 1955, 1956, 1958, 1960, 1966, 1969, 1970, 1977, 1979, 1985, 1987, 1996, 2006, 2010

2).

Table 2. Classification of years into strong positive and negative climate oscillation events for the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Pacific North American mode (PNA), North Pacific Index (NPI), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and Arctic Oscillation (AO).

Climate oscillation	Phase	Strong event years
PDO	positive	1905, 1906, 1908, 1909, 1922, 1924, 1927, 1931, 1935, 1936, 1937, 1940, 1941, 1942, 1970, 1977, 1981, 1983-1988, 1994, 1998, 2003
	negative	1917, 1918, 1946, 1949, 1950, 1951, 1952, 1954, 1956, 1957, 1962, 1964, 1965, 1969, 1971, 1972, 1974, 1976, 1991, 2000, 2008, 2009
PNA	positive	1953, 1961, 1964, 1970, 1977, 1981, 1983, 1986, 1987, 1988, 1992, 1995, 1998, 2001, 2003, 2004, 2007, 2010
	negative	1950, 1951, 1952, 1955, 1956, 1957, 1965, 1966, 1969, 1971, 1972, 1979, 1982, 1990, 2009
NPI	low	1900, 1926, 1931, 1934, 1936, 1940, 1941, 1945, 1961, 1963, 1970, 1977, 1978, 1981, 1983, 1984, 1986, 1987, 1992, 1998, 2001, 2003, 2010
	high	1903, 1904, 1907, 1908, 1910, 1911, 1916, 1917, 1920, 1922, 1932, 1937, 1943, 1948, 1951, 1952, 1955, 1956, 1966, 1971, 1972, 1989, 1991, 2009
SOI	negative El Niño	1902, 1904, 1905, 1911, 1912, 1913, 1914, 1918, 1919, 1923, 1925, 1932, 1939, 1940, 1941, 1944, 1946, 1951, 1953, 1957, 1963, 1965, 1969, 1972, 1976, 1977, 1982, 1987, 1991, 1992, 1993, 1994, 1997, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2009
	positive La Niña	1906, 1908, 1909, 1910, 1915, 1916, 1917, 1921, 1924, 1938, 1945, 1947, 1950, 1955, 1956, 1964, 1970, 1971, 1973, 1974, 1975, 1988, 1996, 1998, 2000, 2008
AO	positive	1903,1905, 1907, 1913, 1914, 1920, 1925, 1943, 1948, 1949, 1973, 1975, 1976, 1989, 1990, 1992, 1993, 1995, 1997, 2000, 2002, 2007, 2008
	negative	1900, 1915, 1919, 1931, 1936, 1940, 1941, 1942, 1947, 1951, 1955, 1956, 1958, 1960, 1966, 1969, 1970, 1977, 1979, 1985, 1987, 1996, 2006, 2010

Figure 4. (a) Correlation plot between same year winter (November–March) mean Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and concurrent precipitation for 1950–2005. (b) Correlation plot between same year winter (December–February) mean Pacific North American mode (PNA) and concurrent precipitation. (c) Correlation plot between same year winter (November–March) mean North Pacific Index (NPI) and concurrent precipitation. (d) Correlation plot between June–November mean Southern Ocean Index (SOI) and following year winter (December–March) precipitation. (e) Correlation plot between same year winter (December–March) mean Arctic Oscillation (AO) and concurrent precipitation.

Table 3. Empirical probabilities of two successive years of least quartile and highest quartile flows composited according to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) phase for the long Prairie records. The Water Survey of Canada (WSC) codes are given for the added regulated flow records.

	2 successive yrs least 1/4 flow in +PDO phase	2 successive yrs least 1/4 flow in –PDO phase	2 successive yrs highest 1/4 flow in +PDO phase	2 successive yrs highest 1/4 flow in –PDO phase
Bow R. at Banff	0.115	0.000	0.078	0.071
Highwood R. [05BL019]	0.194	0.000	0.033	0.042
Oldman R. at Waldron’s [05AA023]	0.167	0.000	0.033	0.077
Castle R. [05AA022]	0.097	0.034	0.000	0.138
Elbow R. [05BJ001]	0.176	0.048	0.059	0.190
Bow R. at Calgary [05BH004]	0.176	0.024	0.039	0.195
Waterton R. near Waterton	0.118	0.000	0.039	0.122
Red Deer R. [05CC002]	0.098	0.122	0.039	0.171
Belly R. [05AD005]	0.098	0.000	0.039	0.122
N. Saskatchewan R. at Edmonton [05DF001]	0.118	0.024	0.078	0.122
St. Mary R. [05AE027]	0.157	0.020	0.020	0.160
Athabasca R. at Athabasca	0.136	0.000	0.091	0.075
Rolph Creek	0.200	0.000	0.050	0.138
Oldman R. at Lethbridge [05AD007]	0.196	0.000	0.020	0.146
S. Saskatchewan R. [05AJ001]	0.196	0.000	0.020	0.171
Sage Creek	0.122	0.000	0.049	0.034
Lyons Creek	0.061	0.034	0.102	0.000
N. Saskatchewan R. at Prince Albert [05GG001]	0.137	0.049	0.039	0.122
Poplar Creek	0.111	0.000	0.044	0.172
Long Creek	0.078	0.024	0.059	0.098
Saskatchewan R. at the Pas [05KJ001]	0.137	0.025	0.059	0.175
Antler R. near Melita	0.091	0.069	0.030	0.276
Mean	0.135	0.022	0.046	0.128

R., river.

Figure 5. The nine naturally flowing and 11 regulated long continuous streamflow records used in the analysis of the effect of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) on the probability of two successive years of low or high flows.

Figure 6. Geographic pattern of trends in 86 naturally flowing mean daily streamflow records, annualized over January–December from the Canadian Prairie Provinces as assessed by a modified Mann-Kendall test. A down (up) arrow denotes a decreasing (increasing) trend. A large arrow denotes significance at the p ≤ 0.05 level, a small arrow denotes significance at the 0.05 < p ≤ 0.1 level and a square denotes no trend. (a) Full variable period of record analyzed. (b) 1962–2010 analyzed.

Figure 7. (a) Impacts of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) on the 86 Prairie naturally flowing mean daily discharges. (b) Impacts of the Pacific North American mode (PNA) on the mean daily discharges. (c) Impacts of the North Pacific Index (NPI) on the mean daily discharges. (d) Impacts of the Southern Ocean Index (SOI) on the mean daily discharges. (e) Impacts of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) on the mean daily discharges. All assessed by permutation t-tests: a large symbol denotes significance at the p ≤ 0.05 level; a small symbol denotes significance at the 0.05 < p ≤ 0.1 level.

Figure 8. Mean probabilities and standard deviations of two successive years of least quartile and highest quartile flows composited according to Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) phase with standard deviations for the 22 long Prairie records. Also shown are the p-values from the paired permutation t-tests determining the significance of the mean Prairie-wide difference between the probability of two successive years of least (highest) quartile flow in a given river during the positive PDO phase versus the probability of two successive years of least (highest) quartile flow in the same river during the negative PDO phase.