Climate and water availability indicators in Canada: Challenges and a way forward. Part III – Future scenarios

Figures & data

Table 1. List of climate models, and respective modeling centre and country.

Climate model	Modeling centre, country
BCC-CM1	Beijing Climate Center, China
BCCR BCM20	Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Norway
CCSM3	National Centre for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), United States
CGCM2, CGCM3, CGCM3.1 (Canadian Global Climate Models)	Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Canada
CNRM CM3	Météo France/Centre National de Recherches
	Météorologiques, France
CRCM (Canadian Regional Climate Model)	Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Canada
CSIRO MK3_0, CSIRO MK3_5	Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial
	Research Organization, Australia
ECHAM 4, ECHAM 5	Max Planck Institute für Meteorologie (MPI), Germany
GFDL CM2_0	NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
	United States
GISS AOM, GISS MODEL E H, GISS MODEL E R	NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Studies, United States
HADCM3, HADGEM1	Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and
	Research, United Kingdom Met Office, United Kingdom
HRM3 (Hadley Centre Regional Climate Model)	Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, United Kingdom Met Office, United Kingdom
IAP FGOALS	Institute of Atmospheric Studies, China
INGV SXG	Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Italy
INM CM3	Institute for Numerical Mathematics, Russia
IPSL CM4	Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, France
MIROC3_2 HIRES, MIROC3_2 MEDRES	Centre for Climate System Research, Japan
MIUB ECHO G	Meteorologisches Institut der Universität Bonn, Germany
MM5I	Iowa State University, United States
MRI CGCM2_3_2a	Meteorological Research Institute, Japan
PCM1	NCAR, United States
RegCM	NCAR, United States
RCM3	Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab (GFDL), United States
WRFG	Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, United States

Table 2. Drought indices and climate models chosen for projections of drought occurrence for climate change scenarios, listed by reference.

Author	Location	Drought indices	Climate model^a
Barrow (2010)	Prairie Provinces (AB, SK, MB)	P-PET (CMI)	CGCM3-CRCM; CGCM3-RCM3; HadCM3-HRM3
Bonsal and Regier (2006)	Southern Canada	PDSI, SPI	CGCM2; HadCM3; CSIRO-MK2b; ECHAM4/OPYC3; GFDL-R30; CCSR-98; NCAR-PCM (all A2, B2)
Bonsal et al. (2012)	Southern AB, SK	PDSI, SPI	CGCM2 (A2); CGCM3 (A2, A1B); HadCM3 (A2, B2)
PaiMazumder et al. (2012)	Prairie Provinces (AB, SK, MB)	DR03, DR06, DR010	CGCM3.1-CRCM (A2)

^a Name of atmospheric–ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) and/or regional climate model (RCM); if no RCM, downscaling provided by statistical, delta or other methods; studies employed one or more greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) set, unless otherwise indicated. See Table 1 for list of models.

Table 3. Projected change in hydrologic indicators from basin-scale case studies, 2050s, compared with 1961–1990 or 1980–1999 baseline periods, median or range of median projections, unless otherwise indicated. Watersheds listed from western to eastern Canada. (Sources and models listed in Table 4.)

	Annual runoff	Winter runoff	Summer runoff	SWE	Summer ET
	%	%	%	%	%
Campbell River (BC)	–10 to +8^a	+10 to +90^b	–68 to –43^a	–70 to –25^b	–15 to +10^b
	0 to +4^b	+45 to +55^c	–70 to –40^b	–65 to –55^c
	+1 to +3^c		–58 to –45^c
Fraser River (BC)	–9 to +10^d
• Baker River (BC)		–25 to +130^e	–40 to 0^e	–60 to 0^e	–5 to +15^e
Columbia River (BC)	+11^f	+75^f	–6^f
	+6 to +23^g
• Mica Dam (BC)	+16 to +22	+14 to	+5 to +11^a	–8 to +1^c
	+10 to +24^a	+104^a	–22 to –9^c
	+7 to +10^c	+75 to +98^c
• Revelstoke Dam (BC)	+2 to +23^a	+24 to +132^a	–7 to +4^a
• Arrow (BC)	–1 to +21^a	+60 to +115^a	–14 to 0^a
• Kootenay Lake (BC)	–5 to +16^a	+72 to +101^a	–31 to –12^a
• Keenleyside Dam (BC)	+8 to +16
• Headwaters (Donald, BC)	Increase	Increase	Decline
• Trepanier Creek (BC)	–34 to –8^h	Mixed^h	Decline^h
Peace River (BC)
• Peace River (BC)	+9^f	+72^f	–22^f	–23 to –11^c
	+3 to +16^g	+55 to +77^c	–25 to –13^c
	+10 to +12^c
• Ingenika River (BC)		+30 to +120^e	–25 to +10^e	–20 to +10^e	0 to +20^e
• Bennett Dam (BC)	+11 to +13			Decline
Athabasca River (AB)	–37 to –5^i
Elk River (AB)	–9 to –7
Marias River (AB)	–33 to –29
Waterton River (AB)	–8 to –7
Saskatchewan River
• Cline River (AB)	+2 to +9	+47 to +107	–24 to 0
• Bow River, at Calgary (AB)		0	–15
• Oldman River (AB)		+50	–15
• Actual Oldman River (AB)	–78 to –72
• Naturalized Oldman River (AB)	–13 to –11
• Beaver Creek (AB)		+35 to +157	–32 to +17
• South Saskatchewan River (SK)	–33 to –22^j	+5^k	–20^k
Lake Winnipeg (MB)
• Upper Assiniboine River (MB)	+15 to +60^l
	+9 to +90^m
• Morris River (MB)	+9 to +46^l
	–6 to +66^m
• Assiniboine River (MB)	No discernible change^n		Reduced soil moisture^n
Churchill River (MB)	–37 to +34^o
	–20 to +13^p
Great Lakes–St. Lawrence
• Lake Superior (ON–USA)	<+1 (NBS)
• Lakes Michigan–Huron (ON–USA)	–2 (NBS)
• Lake Erie (ON–USA)	–9 (NBS)
• Spencer Creek (ON)	+2 to +24
• Credit River, Sub-watershed 19 (ON)	–11 to +16
• Chaudière (QC)	–14 to +14^q
St. Lawrence River tributaries (QC) • Richelieu, St-François, Yamachiche, St- Maurice, Batiscan	Increase and decrease	≥ +50	Most scenarios ≤ –20; few show increase
Manicouagan River (QC)	+6 to +22^r	+38 to +260^r	–9 to +22^r
New Brunswick^s
• Canaan, Kennebecasis, Miramichi (NW, SW), Nashwaak, Restigouche, Saint John	+2 to +14
Pinus River, Labrador (NF)	+9^t	+42 (January)^t	–33 (June), +2 (August)^t

BC, British Columbia; AB, Alberta; SK, Saskatchewan; MB, Manitoba; ON, Ontario; USA, United States of America; QC, Quebec; NW, Northwest; SW, Southwest; NF, Newfoundland.

^a BC Hydro summary of unpublished PCIC estimates (Jost and Weber n.d.).

^b See Table 4 (Schnorbus et al. 2011); range for individual AOGCM projections.

^c See Table 4 (Schnorbus et al. 2014); range of average of AOGCM projections for three emission scenarios.

^d For 2070–2099, compared with 1961–1990; based on 18 projections (seven climate models, 2–4 emissions scenarios; Kerkhoven and Gan 2011).

^e Range representing 13 of 15 projections; remaining two projections are of opposite sign and high magnitude (Bennett 2012).

^f Ensemble AOGCM outputs with bias correction.

^g Median runoff volume for all AOGCM-driven (using Variable Infiltration Capacity model (see Table 4)) and RCM outputs.

^h Compared with 1983–1993 (Harma et al. 2012).

ⁱ Bohrn (2012).

^j St. Jacques et al. (2013).

^k Lapp et al. (2009).

^l Based on delta-change method (Shrestha et al. 2012a).

^m Based on bias correction method (Shrestha et al. 2012a).

ⁿ Stantec (2012).

^o – range across AOGCMs.

^p – range across hydrology models (see Table 4).

^q Projection for 2010–2039 period (Quilbé et al. 2008).

^r Multiple projections for 2081–2100 period; summer combined with autumn, including July–November; winter includes December–March (Chen et al. 2011).

^s Compared with 1970–1999 (El-Jabi et al. 2013).

^t Mean of six scenarios; see Table 4 (Roberts et al. 2012).

Figure 1. Projected changes in hydrologic indicators (from Table 3). Adapted and updated from Bush et al. (2014).

Table 4. Hydrologic models and climate models chosen for projections of runoff for climate change scenarios (from Table 3), listed by reference, in alphabetical order.

Author	Basin	Hydrologic model	Climate model^a
Bennett (2012)	Campbell (not including annual runoff), Baker, Ingenika	VIC^b	CGCM3; CCSM3; ECHAM5;GFDL2.1; HadCM3
Bohrn (2012)	Churchill (MB)	WATFLOOD, HBV-EC^c, HMETS	BCCR BCM20; CGCM3; CNRMCM3; CSIROMk3.0, 3.5; GFDLCM2.0, 2.1; GISS MODEL E R; INGV ECHAM4; INNCM3; IPSLCM4; MIROC3.2 medres; MIUB ECHO G; MPI-ECHAM5; MRI CGCM2.3.2A; NCARCCSM3; NCARPCM1; UKMO HadCM3; UKMO HadGEM1
Boyer et al. (2010)	Richelieu, Richelieu, St-François, Yamachiche, St- Maurice, Batiscan (QC)	HSAMI	HadCM3, ECHAM4, CSIRO-Mk2
Bürger et al. (2011)	Columbia headwaters (Donald, BC)	WaSim^d	CGCM3-CRCM; CGCM3-RCM3; GFDL2.1-RCM3; HadCM3-HRM3
Chen et al. (2011)	Manicouagan (QC)	HSAMI, HYDROTEL, HMETS	CGCM3; CSIRO-Mk3.5; GFDL-CM2.0; MPI-ECHAM5; MIROC3.2-Medres; MRI-CGCM2.3
EBNFLO Environmental and AquaResource Inc. (2010)	Credit River, sub-watershed 19 (ON)	HSP-F	CNRMCM3 – A2; FGOALS – g1.0 – B1; IPSLCM4 – A2; MIROC3.2 hires – A1B; CGCM2.3.2a – A1B; CSIROMk3 – A2; GFDLCM2.1 – B1; NCARCCSM3 – A2; NCARCCSM3 – A1B;CRCM
El-Jabi et al. (2013)	Canaan, Kennebecasis, Miramichi (NW, SW), Nashwaak, Restigouche, Saint John (NB)	Artificial neural network	CGCM3.1 – B1, A2
Forbes et al. (2011)	Beaver Creek (AB)	ACRU^e	CGCM2; CCSR; CSIRO-Mk2; ECHAM4; NCAR-PCM
Grillakis et al. (2011)^f	Spencer Creek (ON)	HBV 7.1^c	CGCM3-CRCM; CGCM3-RCM3; GFDL2.1-RCM3; HadCM3-HRM3
Harma et al. (2012)	Trepanier Creek (BC)	WEAP^g	CGCM2; HadCM3
Jost et al. (2012)	Mica (BC)	HBV-EC^c	CGCM3
Kienzle et al. (2012)	Cline (AB)	ACRU^e	BCM20; CGCM3; CCSM3; MIROC3.2 (HIRES)
Kerkhoven and Gan (2011)	Fraser, Athabasca	MISBA^h	CGCM2; CCSRNIES; CSIROMk2b; ECHAM4; GFDLR30; HadCM3; NCARPCM
Lapp et al. (2009)	Bow (Calgary), Oldman (winter, summer), South Saskatchewan (winter, summer)	WATFLOOD	CGCM3; CSIROMk3.0; HadCM3; MIROC3.2 (MEDRES)
MacKay and Seglenieks (2013)	Lakes Superior, Michigan-Huron, Erie (ON–USA)	GLRCM	CGCM3-GLRCM
Quilbé et al. (2008)	Chaudière (QC)	HYDROTEL	CGCM3; HadCM3; ECHAM4
Roberts et al. (2012)	Pinus, Labrador (NF)	WATFLOOD	CGCM3-CRCM; CGCM3-RCM3; CCSM-CRCM; CCSM-MM5I; CCSM-WRFG; GFDL-RCM3
Schnorbus et al. (2011)	Peace-Bennett Dam, Campbell (annual runoff), Columbia-Mica Dam, Columbia-Keenleyside Dam	VIC^b	CCSM3.0; CGCM3.1; CSIROMk3.0; ECHAM5: GFDLCM2.1; HadCM3; HadGEM1; MIROC3.2 (MEDRES)
Schnorbus et al. (2014)	Peace-Bennett Dam, Campbell, Upper Columbia-Mica Dam	VIC^b	CCSM3.0; CGCM3.1; CSIROMk3.0; ECHAM5: GFDLCM2.1; HadCM3; HadGEM1; MIROC3.2 (MEDRES)
Shrestha et al. (2011)	Columbia, Peace (BC)	VIC^b	CCSM3; CGCM3.1; CSIROMk3.0; ECHAM5; GFDLCM2.1; MIROC3.2(MEDRES); HadCM3; HadGEM1
Shrestha et al. (2012a)	Lake Winnipeg: Upper Assiniboine, Morris	SWAT^i	CGCM3-CRCM; GFDL-RCM3; HadCM3-HRM3
Shrestha et al. (2012b)	Fraser	VIC^b	CCSM3; CGCM3.1; CSIROMk3.0; ECHAM5; GFDLCM2.1; MIROC3.2(MEDRES); HadCM3; HadGEM1
St. Jacques et al. (2013)	Elk, Marias, Waterton, Actual Oldman, Naturalized Oldman, South Saskatchewan (annual)	Regression	CCSM3; CGCM3.1; ECHAM5; GFDLCM2.1; HadCM3; MIROC3.2 (HIRES, MEDRES); MRIGCM2.3.2; PCM
Stahl et al. (2008)	Bridge (BC)	HBV-EC^c	CGCM3
Stantec (2012)	Assiniboine (MB)	MIKE-SHE^j	CRCM

^a Name of AOGCM and/or RCM (see Table 1); if no RCM, downscaling provided by statistical, delta or other methods; studies employed one or more GHG emission scenarios from the SRES set, unless otherwise indicated.

^b Variable infiltration capacity.

^c HBV model originally developed by Lindström et al. (1997); different versions used in these cases, as described by the authors.

^d Water balance simulation model.

^e Agricultural Catchments Research Unit (Smithers and Schulze 1995).

^f Grillakis et al. (2011) also tested Hydrologic Engineering Center Hydrologic Modelling System (HEC-HMS) and Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting (SAC-SMA), but HBV 7.1 was chosen due to better fit with observed flow.

^g Water Evaluation and Planning model originally developed by Stockholm Environment Institute (1997).

^h Modified ISBA (Interactions between the Soil–Biosphere–Atmosphere) model, developed by Noilhan and Planton (1989).

ⁱ Soil and Water Assessment Tool.

^j MIKE-SHE originally developed by the Danish Hydraulic Institute (see http://www.dhigroup.com/).

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