Flood analysis and flood projections under climate change in New Brunswick

Figures & data

Figure 1. Hydrometric and meteorological stations in New Brunswick. The (a) 56 hydrometric stations and (b) four grid boxes corresponding to New Brunswick used in climate change scenarios. Box size ~200 × 300 km; • hydrometric station;

meteorological station.

Table 1. Analysed hydrometric stations for the flood frequency analysis (from Aucoin et al. 2011).

Station number	Station name	Drainage area (km^2)	Period of record	Number of years
01AD002	Saint Johhn River at Fort Kent	14,700	1927–2007	79
01AD003	Saint Francis River at outlet of Glasier Lake	1350	1952–2008	57
01AF002	Saint John River at Grand Falls	21,900	1931–2007	77
01AF003	Green River near Riviere–Verte	1150	1963–1979, 1981–1993	30
01AG002	Limestone River at Four Falls	199	1968–1993	26
01AG003	Aroostook River near Tinker	6060	1975–2007	33
01AH005	Mamozekel River near Campbell River	230	1973–1990	18
01AJ001	Saint John River near East Florenceville	34,200	1952–1994	43
01AJ003	Meduxnekeag River near Belleville	1210	1968–2007	40
01AJ004	Big Presque Isle Stream at Tracey Mills	484	1968–2007	40
01AJ010	Becaquimec Stream at Coldstream	350	1974–2007	34
01AJ011	Cold Stream at Coldstream	156	1974–1993	20
01AK001	Shogomoc Stream near Trans Canada Highway	234	1919–1940, 1944–2007	86
01AK004	Saint John River below Mactaquac	39,900	1967–1994	28
01AK005	North Nashwaak Stream near Royal Road	26.9	1966–1993	28
01AK007	Nackawic River near Temperance Vale	240	1968–2007	40
01AK008	Eel River near Scott Siding	531	1974–1993	20
01AL002	Nashwaak River at Durham Bridge	1450	1962–2007	46
01AL003	Hayden Brook near Narrows Mountain	6.48	1971–1993	23
01AL004	Narrows Mountain Brook near Narrows Mountain	3.89	1972–2003	32
01AM001	Northwest Oromocto River at Tracy	557	1963–2007	45
01AN001	Castaway Brook near Castaway	34.4	1972–1981, 1983–1993	21
01AN002	Salmon River at Castaway	1050	1974–2007	34
01AP002	Canaan River at East Canaan	668	1926–1940, 1963–2008	61
01AP004	Kennebecasis River at Apohaqui	1100	1962–2008	47
01AP006	Nerepis River at Lepreau	293	1976–1993	18
01AQ001	Lepreau River at Lepreau	239	1917–2008	92
01AQ002	Magaguadavic River at Elmcroft	1420	1917–1932, 1943–2007	81
01AR006	Dennis Stream near Saint Stephen	115	1967–2008	42
01AR008	Bocabec River above Tide	43	1967–1979	13
01BC001	Restigouche River below Kedgwick River	3160	1963–2007	45
01BE001	Upsalquitch River at Upsalquitch	2270	1919–1932, 1944–2007	78
01BJ001	Tetagouche River near West Bathurst	363	1923–1933, 1952–1994	54
01BJ003	Jacquet River near Durham Centre	510	1965–2007	43
01BJ004	Eel River near Eel River Crossing	88.6	1968–1983	16
01BJ007	Restgouche River above Rafting Ground Brook	7740	1969–2007	39
01BK004	Nepisiquit River near Pabineau Falls	2090	1958–1974	17
01BL001	Bass River at Bass River	175	1966–1990	25
01BL002	Southwest Caraquet River at Burnsville	173	1970–2007	38
01BL003	Tracadie River at Murphy Bridge Crossing	383	1971–2007	37
01BO001	Southwest Miramichi River at Blackville	5050	1919–1932, 1962–2007	60
01BO002	Renous River at McGraw Brook	611	1966–1994	29
01BO003	Barnaby River below Semiwagan River	484	1973–1994	22
01BP001	Little Southwest Miramichi River at Lyttleton	1340	1952–2007	56
01BQ001	Northwest Miramichi River at Trout Brook	948	1962–2007	46
01BR001	Kouchibouguac River near Vautour	177	1931–1932, 1970–1994	27
01BS001	Coal Branch River at Beersville	166	1964–2008	45
01BU002	Petitcodiac River near Petitcodiac	391	1962–2008	47
01BU003	Turtle Creek at Turtle Creek	129	1963–2008	46
01BU004	Palmer's Creek near Dorchester	34.2	1967–1985	19
01BV005	Ratcliffe Brook below Otter Lake	29.3	1961–1971	11
01BV006	Point Wolfe River at Fundy National Park	130	1964–2008	45
01BV007	Upper Salmon River at Alma	181	1968–1978	11
01BD002	Matapedia en Amont de Assemetquagan, QC	2770	1970–1992, 1995, 1997	25
01DL001	Kelley River at Eight Mile Ford, NS	63.2	1970–1996, 1999–2007	36
01BF001	Nouvelle au Pont, QC	1140	1965–1997	33

Table 2. Meteorological stations (from El-Jabi et al. 2013).

Meteorological station	Latitude, longitude	Period of record, temperature	Period of record, precipitation
Aroostook (1)^a	46°48’N, 67°43’W	1913–1999	1929–2005
Charlo (2)	47°59’N, 66°20’W	1945–1999	1966–2005
Chatham (3)	47°01’N, 65°27’W	1895–1999	1943–2005
Doaktown (4)	46°33’N, 66°09’W	1952–1999	1934–2005
Fredericton (5)	45°52’N, 66°32’W	1895–1999	1951–2005
Moncton (6)	46°06’N, 64°47’W	1895–1999	1939–2005
Saint John (7)	45°19’N, 65°53’W	1895–1999	1946–2005

^a The number in parentheses corresponds to the meteorological station used to predict river discharge for each hydrometric station.

Table 3. Hydrometric stations (from El-Jabi et al. 2013).

Hydrometric station	Latitude, Longitude	Drainage area (km^2)	Period of record
Saint John R. (1)	47°15’N, 68°36’W	14,700	1927–2005
Restigouche R. (2)	47°40’N, 67°29’W	3160	1963–2005
NW Miramichi R. (3)	47°06’N, 65°50’W	948	1962–2005
SW Miramichi R. (4)	46°44’N, 65°50’W	5050	1919–1932, 1962–2005
Nashwaak R. (5)	46°08’N, 66°37’W	1450	1962–2005
Canaan R. (6)	46°04’N, 65°22’W	668	1926–1940, 1963–2005
Kennebecasis R. (7)	45°42’N, 65°36’W	1100	1961–2005

Figure 2. Flood frequency analysis for Renous River (NB), station 01BO002.

Table 4. Regional regression equations and R² Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) (from Aucoin et al. 2011).

Q2 = 0.394690(DA)^0.897	R^2 = 0.985
Q2 = 1.1131 * 10^-5(DA)^0.935(MAP)^1.460	R^2 = 0.990
Q10 = 0.753188(DA)^0.871	R^2 = 0.981
Q10 = 1.3152 * 10^-6(DA)^0.919(MAP)^1.848	R^2 = 0.988
Q20 = 0.950031(DA)^0.857	R^2 = 0.977
Q20 = 5.5022 * 10^-7(DA)^0.910(MAP)^2.002	R^2 = 0.987
Q50 = 1.273837(DA)^0.839	R^2 = 0.971
Q50 = 1.7180 * 10^-7(DA)^0.896(MAP)^2.205	R^2 = 0.983
Q100 = 1.580312(DA)^0.824	R^2 = 0.964
Q100 = 7.0216 * 10^-8(DA)^0.886(MAP)^2.360	R^2 = 0.978

Q_T (m³/s). The R² was obtained from the log-transformed regression equations.

Figure 3. Estimated 100-year flood (daily discharge) as a function of drainage area (km²) for all 56 hydrometric stations (Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) and Lognormal type 3 (LN3)). Regional regression line for both the present study and the EC & NB study (1987) are presented.

Figure 4. Observed and simulated monthly discharges for SW Miramichi River: (a) mean discharge; (b) maximum discharge.

Figure 5. New Brunswick regional climate index (RCI) curves for floods at time slices 2010–2039, 2040–2069, 2070–2099 under (a) scenario B1; (b) scenario A2 (adapted from El-Jabi et al. 2013).

Aucoin, F., D. Caissie, N. El-Jabi, and N. Turkkan. 2011. Flood frequency analyses for New Brunswick rivers. Canadian Technical Report of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 2920. Moncton, NB: Fisheries and Oceans Canada, x + 77 pp.

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El-Jabi, N., N. Turkkan, and D. Caissie. 2013. Regional climate index for floods and droughts using Canadian climate model (CGCM3.1). American Journal of Climate Change 2: 106–115.

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Environment Canada, and New Brunswick Department of Municipal Affairs and Environment. 1987. Flood frequency analyses, New Brunswick, A guide to the estimation of flood flows for New Brunswick rivers and streams. April 1987, Government of New Brunswick, Fredericton, NB, Canada, 49 pp.

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