A moving target. EU actorness and the Russian invasion of Ukraine

Figures & data

Table 1. Reactions to the fragmentation of the liberal international order.

	Nationalists	Atlanticists		Europeanists
		If US admin Atlanticist	If US admin not Atlanticist
Acceptance	-Fragmented order of sovereign nations -Euroscepticism -Transactional re-alignment with other great powers	-The West vs the Rest -Actorness requires greater operational StA. -EU as a responsible partner in a struggling West	-The Rest vs a divided West -Actorness demands greater operational and industrial StA. -Hope of getting the US back. No deterrent. When hope vanishes, move to next column	-Competing regional blocks -Actorness requires operational, industrial and and decisional StA. -Independent EU, including deterrent
Rejection	-Global order of sovereign nations -Only available to big players -“Global Britain”	-Continuity under more difficult conditions -No remarkably higher requirements for actorness. Confidence in US capacities -EU-US bilateralism as leverage to reform/defend the LIO	When hope of getting the US back vanishes, move to next column	-Cooperative regional orders -Actorness requires operational, industrial and decisional autonomy. But deterrent not critical bc order is perceived as less conflictual. -EU as mender of the LIO through multiple coalitions.

Source: own elaboration.