Spatial and Temporal Change in the Hydro-Climatology of the Canadian Portion of the Columbia River Basin under Multiple Emissions Scenarios

Figures & data

Fig. 1 Study area of the UCRB. The numbers 1–5 are the sub-basin outlets defined in Table 1.

Table 1. Study area physical description and 1961–90 annual hydroclimatology.

	Basin
Meta Data	UCRB	BCHAR	COLAD	BCHKL	ELKAF
Site Number	1	2	3	4	5
Water Survey of Canada #	NA	NA	08NB005	NA	08NK002
Project Site or Station Name		Columbia River at Keenlyside Dam	Columbia River at Donald	Kootenay River at Kootenay Canal	Elk River at Fernie
Flow Regime	Regulated	Regulated	Natural	Regulated	Natural
Drainage Area (km^2)	104,000	36,659	9710	46,398	3110
Minimum Elevation (m)	400	423	771	497	995
Median Elevation (m)	1606	1716	1845	1549	1900
Maximum Elevation (m)	3552	3552	3433	3483	3186
Annual Precipitation (mm)	1016	1223	803	840	671
Annual Temperature (°C)	1.6	0.6	0.1	2.3	0.6
Annual Runoff (mm)	686	890	550	515	379
Annual Evaporation (mm)	305	278	258	322	286

Table 2. Global climate model and SRES scenario selection summary.

Model Abbreviation	Modelling Centre, Full Model Name, and Model ID	SRES Scenarios	Primary Reference
CGCM3	Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (Canada), Third Generation Atmospheric General Circulation Model, CGCM3.1 (T47)	A2, A1B, B1	Scinocca, McFarlane, Lazare, Li, and Plummer (2008)
CCSM3	National Center for Atmospheric Research (USA), Community Climate System Model, version 3.0, CCSM3	A2, A1B, B1	Collins et al. (2006)
ECHAM	Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (Germany), Fifth Generation European Centre Hamburg Model (ECHAM5) and Max Planck Institute Ocean Model (MPI-OM), ECHAM5/MPI-OM	A2, A1B, B1	Roeckner et al. (2006)
GFDL2.1	US Dept. of Commerce/NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (USA), Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory-Coupled Climate Model 2.1,GFDL-CM2.1	A2, A1B, B1	Delworth et al. (2006)
HadCM	UKMO Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research (UK), Hadley Centre Coupled Model version 3, HadCM3	A2, A1B, B1	Collins, Tett, and Cooper (2001)
HadGEM1	UKMO Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research (UK), Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model version 1, HadGEM1	A2, A1B	Martin et al. (2006)
MIROC3.2	Center for Climate Systems Research (The University of Tokyo), National Institute for Environmental Studies, and Frontier Research Center for Global Change (JAMSTEC), Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate version 3.2 medium-resolution, MIROC3.2 (medres)	A2, A1B, B1	K-1 model developers, Hasumi and Emori (2004)

Table 3. Summary of calibration and validation results for Columbia River sub-basins for three performance measures. NS is the Nash–Sutcliffe values, LNS is the Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient of log-transformed discharge, and %VB is the percentage mean volume bias. BC Hydro project sites are indicated with bold text.

Basin	Calibration 1990–1994			Validation 1985–1989
	NS	LNS	%VB	NS	LNS	%VB
BCHAR ^a ^, ^b	0.78	0.84	−2	0.80	0.65	−8
BCHDN ^a	0.65	0.54	−7	0.73	0.59	−8
BCHKL ^a ^, ^c	0.67	0.60	−7	0.72	0.74	4
BCHLB ^a ^, ^d	0.97	0.80	−4	—	—	—
BCHMI ^a	0.89	0.83	−9	0.88	0.79	−7
BCHRE ^a ^, ^b	0.97	0.97	−4	0.92	0.81	−10
BCWAT ^a	0.76	0.75	−10	0.74	0.67	−12
BLAAW	0.72	0.86	10	0.75	0.87	−3
BULNW	0.83	0.77	−4	0.81	0.72	−17
COLAD	0.94	0.94	−2	0.91	0.88	−1
ELKAF	0.99	0.97	−3	0.81	0.69	−13
ELKNN	0.89	0.92	−3	0.75	0.77	−8
FORAM	0.66	0.70	−6	0.72	0.74	−1
KICAG	0.77	0.87	−8	0.77	0.86	−2
KOOAF	0.99	0.99	3	0.85	0.80	−4
KOOAK	0.78	0.77	−4	0.75	0.68	17
KOOCF	0.91	0.91	−4	0.84	0.86	−4
KOONS	0.98	0.99	0	0.85	0.83	−6
MICBN	0.75	0.80	−5	0.76	0.79	−15
PALIL	0.80	0.77	−4	0.80	0.80	−10
SALNS	0.74	0.27	−15	0.73	0.38	−12
SLONC	0.78	0.66	−2	0.78	0.72	−2
SPINS ^e	—	—	—	0.67	0.82	−1
STMAW	0.99	0.99	−2	0.84	0.63	−16
STMNM	0.76	0.46	−10	0.82	0.47	−20
Average	0.83	0.80	−4	0.79	0.73	−7
^aCalibrated and validated to naturalized discharge.
^bValidation based on monthly streamflow.
^cValidation based on monthly streamflow from 2003 to 2006.
^dCalibrated based on 2003 to 2006 period.
^eUncalibrated; validation based on 1980 to 1984 period.

Fig. 2 Modelled daily streamflow compared with observed (COLAD and ELKAF) or naturalized (BCHAR and BCHKL) streamflow over the calibration and validation periods.

Table 4. Mean annual (ANN) and seasonal (DJF, MAM, JJA, and SON) temperatures by time period (1970s, 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s) and emissions scenarios (A2, A1B and B1).

	Units	Historical	A2			A1B			B1
		1970s	2020s	2050s	2080s	2020s	2050s	2080s	2020s	2050s	2080s
ANN	(°C)	1.6	3.0	4.2	6.0	3.0	4.5	5.5	2.9	3.6	4.3
DJF	(°C)	−8.6	−7.2	−6.3	−4.3	−7.1	−6.0	−5.0	−7.2	−6.5	−5.9
MAM	(°C)	1.2	2.3	3.3	4.7	2.5	3.6	4.4	2.3	3.0	3.7
JJA	(°C)	12.0	13.7	15.3	17.7	13.9	15.7	16.9	13.4	14.4	15.2
SON	(°C)	1.9	3.2	4.4	6.0	3.0	4.7	5.6	3.0	3.7	4.4

Table 5. Mean annual and seasonal precipitation by time period (1970s, 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s) and emissions scenarios (A2, A1B, and B1).

	Units	Historical	A2			A1B			B1
		1970s	2020s	2050s	2080s	2020s	2050s	2080s	2020s	2050s	2080s
ANN	(mm)	1033	1074	1099	1187	1079	1121	1161	1077	1131	1141
DJF	(mm)	351	373	391	437	374	403	413	365	393	403
MAM	(mm)	204	221	232	253	220	229	245	217	234	233
JJA	(mm)	218	203	192	180	200	187	187	212	209	201
SON	(mm)	261	278	286	318	285	303	317	284	297	305

Fig. 3 Mean (A2) 1 April SWE versus October to March precipitation and 1 April SWE for 1961–90 and changes for 2011–40, 2041–70, and 2071–2100 for the mean of the A2 scenario.

Fig. 4 Summer evapotranspiration and monthly soil moisture flux (June, July, and August) for 1961–90 and changes for 2011–40, 2041–70, and 2071–2100 for the mean of the A2 scenario.

Fig. 5 Multivariate drainage plot of seasonal and annual change in runoff (%) for the 2080s versus the 1970s (line colour) and 1970s seasonal and annual runoff relative to the study area total (line thickness) for the mean of seven GCMs run under the A2 scenario. Note that the modelled drainage network only shows 2nd order and higher channel segments. Red dots denote outlets for the COLAD, BCHAR, ELKAF, and BCHKL basins. The total 1970s study area streamflow for each season is given in the bottom left of each panel as area-average runoff (mm) and discharge equivalent (m³ s⁻¹).

Fig. 6 Temperature and precipitation for the historical period (1970s) and the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s for seven GCMs for A2 emissions scenarios for the Columbia River at Keenlyside Dam. The solid lines indicate the median of the historical (black), 2020s (blue), 2050s (green), and 2080s (red) and the dashed lines indicate the 5th and 95th percentiles of the seven GCMs, 30-year ensemble for each month. Light grey shows the range of the 25th to 75th percentiles, and dark grey shows the 5th to 95th percentiles for the historical period. The blue diamond, green plus-sign, and red dot symbols denote significant differences (α = 0.05) between the 1970s and 2020s, 2050s and 2080s periods, respectively.

Fig. 7 As in Fig. 6 but for rainfall, snowfall, evaporation, snowmelt, and runoff.

Fig. 8 The spread of the mean annual discharge (grey) and 30-year means of mean annual discharge (horizontal black lines at 1961–90, 2011–40, 2041–70, 2071–98) are shown for 20 scenarios for a) the Columbia River at Keenlyside Dam (BCHAR) and b) the Kootenay River at Kootenay Canal (BCHKL). The means of the A1B, A2, and B1 scenarios (green, red, and light blue) are shown with solid lines, along with the 30-year means for the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s.

Table 6. Percentage change in median monthly streamflow for each sub-basin in the 2080s under each emissions scenario (A2, A1B, and B1). Historical values for 1961–90 (1970s) shown in italics.

		Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep
BCHAR	1970s	553	361	194	121	90	104	275	982	2487	3274	2092	957
	A2	12	76	140	190	314	354	186	93	47	−2	−37	−24
	A1B	8	72	120	152	239	294	159	73	44	−6	−40	−29
	B1	7	45	74	89	157	205	123	61	29	3	−28	−21
COLAD	1970s	83	56	34	23	19	20	46	154	469	552	265	126
	A2	8	59	98	149	218	209	134	110	58	−32	−46	−36
	A1B	1	51	81	109	175	184	106	88	56	−31	−49	−36
	B1	−1	34	54	72	124	126	82	68	37	−13	−39	−25
BCHKL	1970s	301	297	222	173	148	187	487	1313	2592	1980	659	347
	A2	0	57	114	166	235	218	108	58	7	−54	−55	−48
	A1B	−1	56	102	139	181	184	89	47	10	−50	−55	−44
	B1	−4	43	62	76	132	132	69	40	9	−36	−44	−35
ELKAF	1970s	17	19	15	12	9	9	18	84	178	67	21	15
	A2	−14	31	84	148	250	289	218	80	−24	−63	−38	−41
	A1B	−11	26	77	124	208	243	177	66	−18	−57	−37	−36
	B1	−12	21	53	64	126	165	133	56	−14	−51	−30	−33

Fig. 9 Monthly discharge for four sub-basins. Solid lines indicate the median of the baseline (black), B1 (blue), A2 (green), and A1B (red) and dashed lines the 5th and 95th percentiles of the seven GCMs (six for B1) for a given emissions scenario, 30-year ensemble for each month. Light grey shows the range of the 25th to 75th percentiles and dark grey the 5th to 95th percentiles for the base period.

Fig. 10 Seven day, 10-year return period low flow for the Columbia River at Donald (COLAD), the Columbia River at Keenlyside (BCHAR), the Kootenay River at Kootenay Canal (BCHKL), and Elk River at Fernie (ELKAF) under the B1, A2, and A1B emissions scenario for the 1970s, 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s. Each box plot illustrates the median and inter-quartile range and the whiskers the upper and lower limits of the 30-year periods.

Fig. 11 As in Fig. 10 but for 25-year return period peak flow.

Fig. 12 Annual maximum peak-flow magnitude versus day of peak flow for the Columbia River at Donald (COLAD), the Columbia River at Keenlyside (BCHAR), the Kootenay River at Kootenay Canal (BCHKL), and Elk River at Fernie (ELKAF) under the B1, A2, and A1B emissions scenario for the 1970s and 2080s.

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